Trends in observed mean and extreme precipitation within the Yellow River Basin, China

Zhao, Yang; Xu, Xiangde; Huang, Wubin; Wang, Yuhong; Xu, Yinlong; Chen, Hong; Kang, Zhiming

doi:10.1007/s00704-018-2568-4

Cited by 34 publications

(12 citation statements)

References 41 publications

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“…These results are consistent with the calculation results presented in this paper. An article by Zhao et al [34] discussed the variation of extreme precipitation events through analysis and calculation, and concluded that the extreme precipitation events in the Yellow River Basin are increasing, which is consistent with the IPA results. This comparison with many research results showed that the IPA index was able to accurately evaluate the precipitation characteristics of the Wei River Basin.…”

Section: Comparison With Other Similar Studiessupporting

confidence: 60%

Precipitation Trends and Alteration in Wei River Basin: Implication for Water Resources Management in the Transitional Zone between Plain and Loess Plateau, China

Zhang

Gong

et al. 2019

Water

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Precipitation plays a critical role in water resources management, and trend changes and alterations thereof are crucial to regional or basin water security, disaster prevention, and ecological restoration under a changing environment. In order to explore the implications of precipitation variation for water resources management, taking the Wei River Basin (a transitional zone between the Guanzhong Plain and Loess Plateau) as an example, this paper proposes an index system, namely the index of precipitation alteration (IPA), to evaluate changes in precipitation and investigate their potential influence on water resources management. The system includes 17 indicators gained from observed daily rainfall, involving some structural precipitation indicators describing the precipitation patterns and some functional precipitation indicators influencing utilization of watershed water resources. Non-parametric Mann-Kendall (MK) statistical test is employed to identify the IPA trend change, and range of variability approach is used to evaluate the variation of IPA. The analysis results in Wei River Basin show that IPA varies with different spatial and temporal distributions. Overall, although the annual total precipitation declined in the study area, the frequency of extreme events was increased during 1955–2012. In the face of severe climate change patterns, it is necessary to establish the precipitation index to evaluate the change of precipitation and to provide useful information for future precipitation assessments.

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Section: Comparison With Other Similar Studiessupporting

confidence: 60%

Precipitation Trends and Alteration in Wei River Basin: Implication for Water Resources Management in the Transitional Zone between Plain and Loess Plateau, China

Zhang

Gong

et al. 2019

Water

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“…The YRB has frequently suffered from drought and a deficit in water resources (Zhang et al 2009), which has impacted on ecological conservation and economic development (Zhang et al 2018). Changes in the supply of water resources are directly linked to climate change and extreme climate events (Zhang et al 2009;Zhao et al 2019).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Annual precipitation over the YRB has been decreasing since the 1960s at a rate of 0.31 mm year −1 (Zhao et al 2019;Zhang et al 2014). Reported reductions in streamflow in the YR have been attributed to climate change and to human activities such as the intensive water extraction for agricultural irrigation that began in 1986 (Zhang et al 2009).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Historical and future climates over the upper and middle reaches of the Yellow River Basin simulated by a regional climate model in CORDEX

et al. 2021

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Despite the importance of the Yellow River to China, climate change for the middle reaches of the Yellow River Basin (YRB) has been investigated far less than for other regions. This work focuses on future changes in mean and extreme climate of the YRB for the near-term (2021–2040), mid-term (2041–2060), and far-term (2081–2100) future, and assesses these with respect to the reference period (1986–2005) using the latest REgional MOdel (REMO) simulations, driven by three global climate models (GCMs) and assuming historical and future [Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 and 8.5] forcing scenarios, over the CORDEX East Asia domain at 0.22° horizontal resolution. The results show that REMO reproduces the historical mean climate state and selected extreme climate indices reasonably well, although some cold and wet biases exist. Increases in mean temperature are strongest for the far-term in winter, with an average increase of 5.6 °C under RCP 8.5. As expected, the future temperatures of the warmest day (TXx) and coldest night (TNn) increase and the number of frost days (FD) declines considerably. Changes to mean temperature and FD depend on elevation, which could be explained by the snow-albedo feedback. A substantial increase in precipitation (34%) occurs in winter under RCP 8.5 for the far-term. Interannual variability in precipitation is projected to increase, indicating a future climate with more extreme events compared to that of today. Future daily precipitation intensity and maximum 5-day precipitation would increase and the number of consecutive dry days would decline under RCP 8.5. The results highlight that pronounced warming at high altitudes and more intense rainfall could cause increased future flood risk in the YRB, if a high GHG emission pathway is realized.

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“…and Salameh [48] have used air temperature trends to indicate changes in climate in the Central Palestinian Mountains, Ge et al [49] in the Indochina Peninsula and Jeganathan et al [50] in one Indian state. In turn, Zhao et al [51] explored linear trends for analyzing mean and extreme precipitation under climate change within the Yellow River Basin (China), while Szwed [52] analyzed the variability of precipitation in Poland. More often, however, the temperature and precipitation trends are considered concurrently.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Their research showed that these future effects are similar to trends of climate change at both the annual and seasonal scales. Lately, a basin-wide approach has been increasingly used in trend analysis [51,[58][59][60][61]. In the present study, trends of air temperature and precipitation over selected climatic periods were also chosen as principal indicators of observed tendencies in climate dynamic and climatic conditions, which form a surface runoff from the Prut River's catchment and its potential change, expressed in trends in the river water discharge.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Prut River under Climate Change and Hydropower Impact

Corobov¹,

Ene

Trombitsky³

et al. 2020

Sustainability

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Climate change and intensive hydropower development pose serious challenges to the sustainable water supply of natural and social systems. This study’s purpose is to statistically estimate the complex influence of these factors on the Prut River flow. Its methodical approach is based on a comparative analysis of the flow in 1961–1990 and 1991–2018, reflecting the regional climate before and after an intensive global warming onset, and in 1950–1975 and 1980–2017, before and after the construction of the Stanca-Costesti hydropower plant (HPP) on the Prut’s riverbed. The compared statistics include annual, seasonal and monthly averages and trends of climatic and hydrological parameters for each period. Since the 1990s a statistically significant increase has been demonstrated in the basin-wide annual mean, maximum and minimum temperatures, of 1.04, 1.11 and 1.21 °C, respectively. Negative trends of annual precipitation were negligibly small and statistically insignificant in both periods (−2.1 mm and −0.6 mm/year, respectively), with annual totals differing by 1.4 mm. The seasonal transformation and changes of the Prut river flow, showing a small annual increase in the period 1961–1990 and a 1.8% decrease over next decades, are in good agreement with variability patterns of temperature (positive tendencies) and precipitation (negative tendencies). The operation of mean-capacity HPP has no significant impact on the total water discharge downstream, but modifies the seasonal distribution of the river’s streamflow.

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Trends in observed mean and extreme precipitation within the Yellow River Basin, China

Cited by 34 publications

References 41 publications

Precipitation Trends and Alteration in Wei River Basin: Implication for Water Resources Management in the Transitional Zone between Plain and Loess Plateau, China

Precipitation Trends and Alteration in Wei River Basin: Implication for Water Resources Management in the Transitional Zone between Plain and Loess Plateau, China

Historical and future climates over the upper and middle reaches of the Yellow River Basin simulated by a regional climate model in CORDEX

The Prut River under Climate Change and Hydropower Impact

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