Trends in extreme temperature and rainfall indices in the semi-arid areas of Western Tigray, Ethiopia

Berhane, Abadi; Hadgu, Gebre; Worku, Walelign; Abrha, Berhanu

doi:10.1186/s40068-020-00165-6

Cited by 63 publications

(34 citation statements)

References 36 publications

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“…They have been used to investigate and monitor global changes in extreme events with observational data [9,10,13,14], with projected future data [2,11,[15][16][17] or to evaluate model performance [12,18]. The indices also enable regional analyses of extreme event changes therefore model performance evaluated also regionally [19] and the regional changes in temperature and precipitation extreme events have been assessed for many parts of the world during the recent decades, such as in Australia [20], North America [21,22], the United States [23], the Mediterranean Basin [24], countries of Western Indian Ocean [25], the Arab Region [26], China [5,27,28], Iran [29], Egypt [30], Central and South Asia [31], East Asia [32], Ethiopia [33][34][35], Saudi Arabia [36]. Various detection and attribution studies also used indices [37][38][39].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projected Changes in Extreme Temperature and Precipitation Indices Over CORDEX-MENA Domain

2021

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In this study, projected changes in climate extreme indices defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices were investigated over Middle East and North Africa. Changes in the daily maximum and minimum temperature- and precipitation- based extreme indices were analyzed for the end of the 21st century compared to the reference period 1971–2000 using regional climate model simulations. Regional climate model, RegCM4.4 was used to downscale two different global climate model outputs to 50 km resolution under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Results generally indicate an intensification of temperature- and precipitation- based extreme indices with increasing radiative forcing. In particular, an increase in annual minimum of daily minimum temperatures is more pronounced over the northern part of Mediterranean Basin and tropics. High increase in warm nights and warm spell duration all over the region with a pronounced increase in tropics are projected for the period of 2071–2100 together with decrease or no change in cold extremes. According to the results, a decrease in total wet-day precipitation and increase in dry spells are expected for the end of the century.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projected Changes in Extreme Temperature and Precipitation Indices Over CORDEX-MENA Domain

2021

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“…There are numerous examples of MK trend test applications such as Asfaw et al (2018) who used the MK test for the detection of trends in time series analysis and the result revealed that inter-annual and intra-annual variability of rainfall as well as the severity index value for Palmer drought shows that the trend for the number of drought years was increasing. Another study also employed a non-parametric MK test and Sen's slope estimates to test the trend of each extreme temperature and rainfall indices as well as their statistical significance in the Western Tigray, Ethiopia (Berhane et al 2020). Similarly, the trend analysis of temperature in Gombe state, Nigeria was analyzed using the MK trend test and Sen's estimator to decide the nature of the temperature trend and significance level.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change and trend analysis of temperature: the case of Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

Alemu

Dioha

2020

Environ Syst Res

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Background This paper presents the trend analysis of temperature and the effect of climate variation in the city of Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. The paper seeks to provide up-to-date information for the better management of climate change in the city. The analysis is based on the temperature difference in the city over two stations—Bole and Entoto. The overall purpose of this study is to investigate the possible trend of temperature variation as well as the effect of climate change in the study area. Method The Mann-Kendall (MK) trend test and Sen's slope estimate were employed to find the nature of the temperature trend and significance level in the city. Results It was found that the MK2/MK3 statistic (Z) value for minimum, maximum and average temperatures for Bole station are 6.21/5.99, 2.49/2.6, and 6.09/6.14 respectively. The positive Kendall's Z value shows an upward trend and implies an increasing trend over time. This indicates a significant increase in the trend at a 5% level of significance since the significance level (alpha) is greater than the computed p-value (0.05 > p-values (0.0001)). Whereas for Entoto station, the MK1 statistic (Z) results are 1.64 for minimum, while the MK2/MK3 static (Z) are 0.71/0.65 for the maximum, and 0.17/1.04 for average temperature, and this positive value shows an indicator of an increasing trend. However, the increase is not significant at the 5% significant level since the computed p-value is larger than the significant level (alpha = 0.05). Conclusions There is a tendency of temperature increments in Bole station. This could be due to the influence of climate change which can lead to weather extremes in the capital city. Therefore, the study recommends that the variability of temperature needs further monitoring technique, and there is a need to consider the increasing temperature trend to minimize its effects on human health.

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“…There are various examples of Mann-Kendall trend test applications such as Asfaw et al (2018) who applied Mann-Kendall test to detect the time series trend and the result revealed that intraannual and inter-annual variability of rainfall and Palmer drought severity index value proved the increasing trend of the number of drought years. Berhane et al also employed a non-parametric Mann-Kendall test and Sen's slope estimates to test the statistical significance and trend of each extreme temperature and rainfall indices, respectively (Berhane et al 2020). Similarly, the trend analysis of temperature in Gombe state, Nigeria was analyzed using the Mann-Kendall trend test and Sen's estimator to decide the nature of the temperature trend and significance level.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate Change and Trend Analysis of Temperature in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

Alemu¹,

Dioha

2020

Preprint

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Background: This paper presents the trend analysis of temperature in Addis Ababa City and the effect of climate change in the study area. The analysis is based on the temperature variation in the capital city of Addis Ababa over two stations - Bole and Entoto. Methods: The Mann-Kendall trend test and Sen’s slope estimate were employed to find the nature of the temperature trend and significance level in Addis Ababa city. Results: It was found that the Mann-Kendall statistic (Z) value for minimum, maximum and average temperatures for Bole station are 5.99, 3.32, and 6.14 respectively. The positive Kendall’s Z value shows an upward trend and implies an increasing trend over time. This indicates that there is a significant increase in the trend at a 5% level of significance since the p-value is less than the significant level (p-values (0.0001) < 0.05). Whereas for Entoto station, the Mann-Kendall statistic (Z) results are 1.64 for minimum, 0.85 for the maximum, and 1.40 for average temperature, and this positive value show an indicator of an increasing trend. However, the increase is not significant at 5% significant level since the p-value is greater than the significant level (p-value (0.219) > 0.05). Conclusions: From both the Mann-Kendall trend test result and Sen’s Slope estimator, it can be concluded that there is the tendency of temperature increments in Bole station. This could be due to the influence of climate change and can lead to weather extremes in the capital city. Therefore, the study recommend that the variability of temperature needs further monitoring technique, and there is a need to consider the increasing temperature trend to minimize its effects on human health.

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Trends in extreme temperature and rainfall indices in the semi-arid areas of Western Tigray, Ethiopia

Cited by 63 publications

References 36 publications

Projected Changes in Extreme Temperature and Precipitation Indices Over CORDEX-MENA Domain

Projected Changes in Extreme Temperature and Precipitation Indices Over CORDEX-MENA Domain

Climate change and trend analysis of temperature: the case of Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

Climate Change and Trend Analysis of Temperature in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

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