Trends in and Predictions of Colorectal Cancer Incidence and Mortality in China From 1990 to 2025

Abstract

Colorectal cancer (CRC) has emerged as a major public health concern in China during the last decade. In this study, we investigated the disease burden posed by CRC and analyzed temporal trends in CRC incidence and mortality rates in this country. We collected CRC incidence data from the Cancer Incidence in Five Continents, Volume XI dataset and the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) of CRC by sex and age, from the 2016 Global Burden of Diseases Study. We used the average annual percentage change (AAPC) to quantify temporal trends in CRC incidence and mortality from 1990 to 2016 and found the ASIR of CRC increased from 14.25 per 100,000 in 1990 to 25.27 per 100,000 in 2016 (AAPC = 2.34, 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.29, 2.39). Cancer cases increased from 104.3 thousand to 392.8 thousand during the same period. The ASIR increased by 2.76% (95% CI 2.66%, 2.85%) and 1.70% (95% CI 1.64%, 1.76%) per year in males and females, respectively. The highest AAPC was found in people aged 15–49 years (2.76, 95% CI 2.59, 2.94). Cancer deaths increased from 81.1 thousand in 1990 to 167.1 thousand in 2016, while the ASMR remained stable (−0.04, 95% CI −0.13, 0.05), A mild increase (AAPC = 0.42, 95% CI 0.34, 0.51) was found among males and a significant decrease (AAPC = −0.75, 95% CI −0.90, −0.60) was found among females. Between 2016 and 2025, cancer cases and deaths are expected to increase from 392.8 and 167.1 thousand in 2016 to 642.3 (95% CI 498.4, 732.1) and 221.1 thousand (95% CI 122.5, 314.8) in 2025, respectively. Our study showed a steady increase in the CRC incidence in China over the past three decades and predicted a further increase in the near future. To combat this health concern, the prevention and management of known risk factors should be promoted through national polices. Greater priority should be given to CRC prevention in younger adults, and CRC screening should be widely adopted for this population.

Colonoscopy Screening Behaviour and Associated Factors Amongst First-Degree Relatives of People with Colorectal Cancer in China: Testing the Health Belief Model Using a Cross-Sectional Design

“…Colorectal cancer (CRC) has been identified as one of the most common malignancies, with over 1.8 million new CRC cases and 881,000 deaths estimated in 2018 [1]. With the economic development and changes in lifestyle, a steady increase in CRC incidence was observed in China over the past three decades, revealing an increasing rate from 14.25 per 100,000 in 1990 to 25.27 per 100,000 in 2016 [2]. Family clustering is a typical feature of this disease, with approximately 25% of CRC cases having a first-degree relative (FDR) diagnosed with CRC [3].…”

Application of cAMP-dependent catalytic subunit β (PRKACB) Low Expression in Predicting Worse Overall Survival: A Potential Therapeutic Target for Colorectal Carcinoma

“…Despite formidable advances in imaging techniques, surgery and multimodal therapy, the overall survival for patients with advanced CRC remains low. A study showed that the incidence of CRC in China has constantly been on the rise over the past three decades and equally predicted a further increase in the near future [2]. According to the 2015 cancer statistics [3], it is estimated that about 2,376,300 new CRC cases and 191,000 CRC related deaths occurred in China, accounting for nearlyone-tenth of the global CRC burden.…”

Gene mutation profiling in Chinese colorectal cancer patients and its association with clinicopathological characteristics and prognosis

“…Colorectal cancer (CRC) is the third most prevalent malignancy in the world. About 274.8 thousand new CRC and 132.1 thousand CRC‐related deaths occurred in China in 2010, and these two numbers are expected to be 624.3 and 221.1 thousand by 2025 . Currently, tumor node metastasis (TNM) stage is the most important prognostic factor.…”