Trend of extreme precipitation indices and analysis of long-term climate variability in the Upper Awash basin, Ethiopia

Shawul, Alemayehu A.; Chakma, Sumedha

doi:10.1007/s00704-020-03112-8

Cited by 55 publications

(21 citation statements)

References 34 publications

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“…They have been used to investigate and monitor global changes in extreme events with observational data [9,10,13,14], with projected future data [2,11,[15][16][17] or to evaluate model performance [12,18]. The indices also enable regional analyses of extreme event changes therefore model performance evaluated also regionally [19] and the regional changes in temperature and precipitation extreme events have been assessed for many parts of the world during the recent decades, such as in Australia [20], North America [21,22], the United States [23], the Mediterranean Basin [24], countries of Western Indian Ocean [25], the Arab Region [26], China [5,27,28], Iran [29], Egypt [30], Central and South Asia [31], East Asia [32], Ethiopia [33][34][35], Saudi Arabia [36]. Various detection and attribution studies also used indices [37][38][39].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projected Changes in Extreme Temperature and Precipitation Indices Over CORDEX-MENA Domain

2021

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In this study, projected changes in climate extreme indices defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices were investigated over Middle East and North Africa. Changes in the daily maximum and minimum temperature- and precipitation- based extreme indices were analyzed for the end of the 21st century compared to the reference period 1971–2000 using regional climate model simulations. Regional climate model, RegCM4.4 was used to downscale two different global climate model outputs to 50 km resolution under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Results generally indicate an intensification of temperature- and precipitation- based extreme indices with increasing radiative forcing. In particular, an increase in annual minimum of daily minimum temperatures is more pronounced over the northern part of Mediterranean Basin and tropics. High increase in warm nights and warm spell duration all over the region with a pronounced increase in tropics are projected for the period of 2071–2100 together with decrease or no change in cold extremes. According to the results, a decrease in total wet-day precipitation and increase in dry spells are expected for the end of the century.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projected Changes in Extreme Temperature and Precipitation Indices Over CORDEX-MENA Domain

2021

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“…The PCI ( Oliver, 1980 ) was adopted to quantify rainfall distribution and its heterogeneity pattern. Recently, this index is widely used ( de Luis et al., 2011 ; Ademe et al., 2020 ; Guo et al., 2020 ; Shawul and Chakma, 2020 ). Michiels et al.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evidences of climate change presences in the wettest parts of southwest Ethiopia

Gemeda

Korecha²,

Garedew

2021

Heliyon

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Climate change has been identified as a major challenge of rainfed agriculture. To contextualize whether there is climate change footprint, identification of rainfall and temperature trend at regional and local scale is helpful for designing long-term adaptation and mitigation strategies. The present study therefore aims to assess evidences of climate change presences in terms of, climate variability and trend in the wettest parts of Southwest Ethiopia. Daily and monthly historical gridded rainfall and temperature data (1983–2016) of ten stations were provided by Ethiopian National Metrological Agency. Moreover, long years historical recorded climate data of Nekemte and Bedele (1971–2020) and Sekoru (1981–2020) were used in the present study. Coefficient of variation, the Mann-Kendall non-parametric statistical test and Sen's slope estimator, linear regression analysis and the precipitation concentration index were applied to detect the presence of climate change in the southwest parts of Ethiopia. In this study, the trend package of open R software employed for trend identification and rate of change per year. The results indicate that the annual rainfall has declining trend at five stations with statistically significant at one station while the mean maximum and minimum temperature shows a statistically significant increasing trend at eight and six stations, respectively. At a seasonal scale, the amount of rainfall in the main rainy season (June to August) is dominated by a downward trend (eight out of ten stations) while, the autumn season (September to November) shows an increasing trend in all stations with statistically significant at one station. The precipitation concentration index analysis revealed that inconsistent and significantly irregular precipitation is observed at six stations (60%) of the ten stations. This study concludes that the climate of the wettest parts of Ethiopia is getting warmer and the amount of rainfall in the main rainy season has declined in the vast majority of the study area.

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“…The distribution of meteorological stations is shown in Figure 1. Considering the local climate in the SXC urban agglomeration, six extreme precipitation indices (Table 1) were calculated from daily precipitation data during 1980-2015 [33,34]. Specifically, CDD and CWD denote the duration indices; PRCPTOT denotes the total precipitation, and other indices denote the precipitation intensity.…”

Section: Datasetsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of Urbanization on Variations of Extreme Precipitation over the Yangtze River Delta

Congxuan

Luo

Zong

et al. 2021

Water

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The urbanization process is the hallmark of the population’s economic activities and land-use types, including population-, economic-, and landscape-urbanization. The question of how to classify the stations into urbanized and suburbanized stations is important for detecting the contribution rates of urbanization to precipitation extremes. This study used the fuzzy c-means clustering method to classify different urbanized level stations by population, economy, and impervious surface in the Suzhou-Wuxi-Changzhou urban agglomeration. Based on the change trends of six extreme precipitation indices, the contribution rates of urbanization to the precipitation extremes were estimated. The results show that the increasing indices were the intensity indices, while the decreasing indices were the duration indices during 1980–2015. Moreover, high urbanization tended to have a higher contribution to the most extreme precipitation indices, especially the intensity indices, than urbanization in the medium-size cities, indicating the urbanization leads to the phenomenon of extreme precipitation enhancement. The results of the three kinds of classification methods were different, especially the classification by the impervious area. This paper investigated the spatiotemporal changes in precipitation extremes and the contribution of urbanization to extreme precipitation, which will provide support for the development of urban agglomeration in the future.

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Trend of extreme precipitation indices and analysis of long-term climate variability in the Upper Awash basin, Ethiopia

Cited by 55 publications

References 34 publications

Projected Changes in Extreme Temperature and Precipitation Indices Over CORDEX-MENA Domain

Projected Changes in Extreme Temperature and Precipitation Indices Over CORDEX-MENA Domain

Evidences of climate change presences in the wettest parts of southwest Ethiopia

Impacts of Urbanization on Variations of Extreme Precipitation over the Yangtze River Delta

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