Trend analysis of temperature and rainfall in south gonder zone, anhara ethiopia

Abstract

Abstract:This study mainly focuses on exploring trend analysis of temperature and rainfall in the case of south Gonder zone. The analysis is based on the temperature and rainfall variation in south Gonder zone over three stations at Addis Zemen, Nefas Mewcha and Mekane Eyesus. The duration of the study period for temperature and rainfall data was chosen as 1996-2015 for Addis Zemen, 1986-2015 for Nefas Mewcha and 1996-2015 for Mekane Eyesus. The Belg rainfall have been found much more variable (>30%) than the Kiremet rainfall in which the coefficient of variation is greater than 30% over the study area. The findings of the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test revealed that there was no significant trend in the annual and seasonal rainfall data whereas monthly rainfall of April and November shown statistically significant increasing trendover the study area. However, the trend was not significant, the annual, the Kiremet and monthly rainfall during June, August and November shows an increasing particularly November was also statically significant as the computed p-value is less than the significance level α = 0.05.On the other hand, the Belg rainfall and monthly rainfall of March and April shows a decreasing trend. Statistically significant increases of mean annual temperature have been found in Addis Zemen and Nefas Mocha whereas statistically insignificant decrease of mean annual temperature has found in Mekane Eyesus. On the other hand, statistically significant increase of annual maximum temperature has been found in Addis Zemen while statistically insignificant increase of annual maximum temperature have been found for Nefas Mewcha and Mekane Eyesus station. Besides, statistically significant increase of annual minimum temperature has been found in Nefas Mewcha whereas statistically insignificant increase of annual minimum temperature has been found in Addis Zemen and Mekane Eyesus. The rates of change in mean annual temperature for Addis Zemen 1.698 0 c per 20 years and Nefas Mocha 0.813 0 c per 30 years have been found greater than the rate of change which was found at national and global level. Therefore, it is recommended that small scale study should be undertaken to clearly detect the rate of climate change and to develop appropriate adaptation strategies for the given agricultural system with the prevailing climatic conditions.

Time Series Trend and Variability Analysis of Temperature and Rainfall in West Shewa Zone of Oromia, Ethiopia

“…This implies that the pattern of mean maximum temperature was moved in the normal distribution mood with no sign of high extreme events than steadily increasing. Similar patterns of an increasing trend with mean annual maximum temperature observed in different parts of Ethiopia have been reported by other researchers (Hailu et al 2018;Miseker et al 2017;Tefera and Agena, 2016;Solomon et al 2015;Birhan, 2018).…”

The Impacts of Climate-Induced Agricultural Drought on Four Cereal Crops: A Case Study in Bako Tibe District, Oromia National Regional State, Ethiopia

“…In line with the present study, some previous studies (Kenawy et al, 2012;Getachew, 2018) scrutinized precipitation trend in North Ethiopia, and reported non-significant decreasing trends of annual and seasonal precipitations. Note: ** and *statistically change of climatic variables at α = 0.01 and 0.05 respectively, ns = non-significant change, MAM = March, April and May, JJA = June, July and August…”

Observed and Perceived Climate Change and Variability and Small Holder Farmers’ Vulnerability: The Case of Janamora District, Northwestern Ethiopia

“…The Mann-Kendall trend test for annual minimum temperature revealed statistically significant increasing trend for Chennek and Guhala stations Similar to Birhanu Getachew (2017). However, annual minimum temperature showed an increasing trend in all stations (Table 1).…”

“…However, a decreasing trend was seen in Debark and Guhala stations (Table 3). Similarly, Birhan Getachew (2017) found insignificant trend in annual rainfall. Figure 5 showed that Amba-Giorgis have a positive slope with increasing rainfall and Guhala has a negative slope that revealed decreasing rainfall.…”