The Impacts of Climate-Induced Agricultural Drought on Four Cereal Crops: A Case Study in Bako Tibe District, Oromia National Regional State, Ethiopia

Abstract

<p>Increasing temperature and altered precipitation patterns lead to the extreme weather events such as drought and flood, which severely affects the agricultural production. This study was aimed to assess the impact of climate change-induced agricultural drought on four cereal crops in Bako Tibe District. Time-series climate and crop yield data, recorded from 1989 to 2018, were acquired from NASA’s data portal and Bako Research Institute. The changes in temperature and precipitation were analyzed using Mann Kendall trend test. The agricultural drought index was analyzed using R-software. The correlation between the selected yield crops and drought indices were evaluated using Pearson correlation coefficient. The results show that trends of seasonal and annual maximum and minimum temperatures were significantly increased (P<0.05). However, seasonal and annual precipitations were insignificantly decreased (P>0.05). Moderate to severe agricultural drought intensities happened four times in the last three decades. These drought spells spatially covered about 36% of the total area of the district. Crop yields and drought indices were significantly correlated at p-values; 0.0034, 0.043, 0.003 and 0.001 for teff, wheat, barley and maize, respectively. The coefficient of determination (R2) values of crop yields were 28.3%, 30.9%, 28.5% and 34.6% for teff, wheat, barley and maize, correspondingly. The study clearly suggests that the increase in temperature and decrease in precipitation enhanced the frequency and intensity of drought events and these impacted the selected crop yields during the past three decades. The map-based results could be used as guides for governmental and non-governmental organizations concerning on drought impact mitigation activities in the district by encouraging farmers to adopt appropriate agricultural technologies, drought tolerant crop varieties and small scale irrigation.</p>

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