Trend Analysis of Rainfall: A Case Study of Surat City in Gujarat, Western India

Mehta, Darshan; Waikhom, Sahita; Yadav, Vipin Kumar; Lukhi, Zalak; Eslamian, Saeid; Furze, James Nicholas

doi:10.1007/978-3-030-98584-4_8

Cited by 5 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 28 publications

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“…While a diminishing trend for summer and winter precipitation will be shown over the same period, a similar pattern will be seen for western coastal regions. India's temperature has significantly increased by 0.51°C between the years 1901 and 2007 in terms of temperature (Mehta and Yadav, 2021c;Mehta et al, 2022c;Shaikh et al, 2022).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Innovative Polygon Trend Analysis Method: A Case Study of the South Gujarat Region

Patel,

Prajapati,

Chadsaniya

et al. 2024

J ENVIRON INFORM LET

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The unpredictability of precipitation can have dramatic impacts on agriculture, ecosystems, and water resource manage¬ment. It is needed to study the change in trends of precipitation due to climate change. The present aims to assess the impact of climate change, trend analysis using the Innovative polygon trend analysis (IPTA) method considering monthly precipitation data of 120 years for seven districts of South Gujarat. Further comparison is carried out with the trends predicted by the well accepted Mann-Kendall (M-K) method. IPTA method shows increasing trends during the monsoon season (June and August) but decreasing trends for the monthly precipitation of July for all seven districts. It can be said that over the period of years, less precipitation occurs in the month of July. De- creasing trends are observed for the post-monsoon and pre-monsoon seasons. No trend is observed for the monthly precipitation of Febru- ary which demands preparedness in the water Management system. Interestingly, monthly variation of trends is observed for Dang Dis- trict for both monsoon and post-monsoon seasons. However, a variation in trends in the monsoon season leads to difficulties in the water management system, and sometimes flood events occur. Trends predicted by the Mann-Kendall method show decreasing trends in the post-monsoon season and increasing trends for the monsoon season. Whereas Tapi and Bharuch districts show decreasing trends in the month of June. No trend is predicted in the pre-monsoon season. Comparative analysis of trends predicted by IPTA and M-K method shows similar results for Post Monsoon. IPTA predicts decreasing trends in pre-monsoon season whereas the M-K test shows no trends in pre-monsoon season. The monthly prediction by IPTA may bring useful information for water utility sectors and decision-makers in the study area.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Innovative Polygon Trend Analysis Method: A Case Study of the South Gujarat Region

Patel,

Prajapati,

Chadsaniya

et al. 2024

J ENVIRON INFORM LET

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Spatial and Temporal Rainfall Analysis of the Bidi Tobacco Growing Areas of India.

Reddy,

Rao,

Prasad

et al. 2023

Curr. World Environ

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The monsoon extremities, such as heavy rainfall, drought, and cyclones are becoming frequent across India and causing substantial damage to commercial crops. To predict/identify the trend in rainfall of Bidi tobacco growing areas were studied for variability, trend, and detection of any change in monthly rainfall over the years (1990-2020) using Mann-Kendall trend analysis and Sen’s slope tests. Monthly rainfall in three unique Bidi production zones has shown distinct trends. A positive trend was observed in March, April, August, September, November, and December while negative trends were in June and July months in Gujarat. During the crop growth period, the trend is positive except in October, the magnitude of change was negligible. However, supplemental irrigation is to be planned during water deficit periods of the nursery (June and July) and critical crop growth periods. In Karnataka, a positive trend from February to October was observed while a negative trend during November, December, and January. The magnitude was high in January (+) and September (-) and significant. The period of negative trend has coincided with the harvesting hence, the crop may not get affected. However, high rainfall during the crop growth period causes a detrimental effect. To mitigate the inundation proper drainage facility should be created through field channels to flush out excess water to avoid saturation at the root zone as this crop is especially extremely sensitive to poor aeration and anaerobic conditions. A positive trend was observed in January, February, March, June, August, and September months in Andhra Pradesh, whereas a negative trend was high in October & November which coincided with crop growth and might significantly affect Bidi tobacco. The positive trend in rainfall during June is high and the same can be utilized for nursery during July-August through proper moisture conservation measures.

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Statistical analysis of climate change over Hanumangarh district

Patel¹,

Mehta²

2023

Journal of Water and Climate Change

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Precipitation is the most critical element of hydrological cycle that might influences the frequency of flood or drought. Therefore, for drought and flood forecasting, it is mandatory to know the precipitation pattern and its trend. The objective of the research is to estimate the monthly, seasonal, and annual precipitation trend employing statistical (Mann–Kendall (MK) test and Sen's Slope (SS) estimator) and graphical (Innovative Trend Analysis (ITA) method) for the Hanumangarh district of N-E Rajasthan. The mean monthly precipitation data were gathered from the India-WRIS for the period of 1901–2022 (122 years). Seasonal and annual precipitation trend variations were examined by the statistical method (MK test and SS estimator) and compared with graphical methods (ITA). The results of the study conclude that precipitation trends showed variability for the SW monsoon season from the graphical method to the statistical method. For the SW monsoon season, a decreasing trend was seen by using the statistical method, whereas the graphical method revealed an increasing trend. During the annual precipitation, an increasing trend was seen by using both statistical and graphical methods. It is found that the ITA method is more efficient in finding trend, because it does not assume any assumptions like that of the MK test.

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Trend Analysis of Rainfall: A Case Study of Surat City in Gujarat, Western India

Cited by 5 publications

References 28 publications

Innovative Polygon Trend Analysis Method: A Case Study of the South Gujarat Region

Innovative Polygon Trend Analysis Method: A Case Study of the South Gujarat Region

Spatial and Temporal Rainfall Analysis of the Bidi Tobacco Growing Areas of India.

Statistical analysis of climate change over Hanumangarh district

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