Statistical analysis of climate change over Hanumangarh district

Abstract

Precipitation is the most critical element of hydrological cycle that might influences the frequency of flood or drought. Therefore, for drought and flood forecasting, it is mandatory to know the precipitation pattern and its trend. The objective of the research is to estimate the monthly, seasonal, and annual precipitation trend employing statistical (Mann–Kendall (MK) test and Sen's Slope (SS) estimator) and graphical (Innovative Trend Analysis (ITA) method) for the Hanumangarh district of N-E Rajasthan. The mean monthly precipitation data were gathered from the India-WRIS for the period of 1901–2022 (122 years). Seasonal and annual precipitation trend variations were examined by the statistical method (MK test and SS estimator) and compared with graphical methods (ITA). The results of the study conclude that precipitation trends showed variability for the SW monsoon season from the graphical method to the statistical method. For the SW monsoon season, a decreasing trend was seen by using the statistical method, whereas the graphical method revealed an increasing trend. During the annual precipitation, an increasing trend was seen by using both statistical and graphical methods. It is found that the ITA method is more efficient in finding trend, because it does not assume any assumptions like that of the MK test.

Trends and forecasts of extreme rainfall in small, medium and large towns in Burkina Faso: a non-parametric statistical analysis and Holt-Winters Smoothing Method (West Africa)

“…This technique, introduced by Sen, 2012, or referred to as new trend analysis [55], is non-parametric and its use does not require a normal distribution of observations [44]. It is a very useful tool for detecting trends in precipitation time series data [61,62]. In addition, the ITAM is more sensitive in determining the trend than the Mann-Kendall (MK) test [52,47].…”