Trend analysis in climatic variables and impacts on rice yield in Nigeria

Akinbile, Christopher O.; Akinlade, G. M.; Abolude, Akintayo T.

doi:10.2166/wcc.2015.044

Cited by 32 publications

(25 citation statements)

References 26 publications

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“…The null and alternative hypothesis are expressed by H 0 is the variable data is homogenous; and H a is the variable is heterogeneous and there is a date at which there is a change in data. Akinbile et al (2015) and Koudahe et al (2017) reported that Mann-Kendall test a nonparametric method for trend analysis and used for analyzing temporal trends in annual monthly rainfall, ET o , and aridity index, and a very useful tool in climatology and hydrology time series. Some of the advantages of using this test are that being a nonparametric test, it does not require the data to be normally distributed and the test has low sensitivity to abrupt breaks due to inhomogeneous time F I G U R E 1 Six cities, one in each agro-ecological zone considered for the study series (Koudahe et al 2017).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Akinbile et al () and Koudahe et al () reported that Mann–Kendall test a nonparametric method for trend analysis and used for analyzing temporal trends in annual monthly rainfall, ET o , and aridity index, and a very useful tool in climatology and hydrology time series. Some of the advantages of using this test are that being a nonparametric test, it does not require the data to be normally distributed and the test has low sensitivity to abrupt breaks due to inhomogeneous time series (Koudahe et al ).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Rice is a major food for millions of people in West Africa and the fastest growing commodity in Nigeria (Akinbile et al ). It is currently the staple food for over 4.7 billion people globally and demand is expected to continue to grow as population increases.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Trends and spatial analysis of temperature and rainfall patterns on rice yields in Nigeria

Akinbile

Ogunmola

Abolude

et al. 2020

Atmospheric Science Letters

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Trends and spatial analysis of temperature and rainfall on rice yield in Nigeria was carried out. Forty year of past trends (1970–2010) was conducted with climate data obtained from the International Institute of Tropical Agriculture, Ibadan, Nigeria while upland rice yield data were obtained from the Food and Agriculture Organization. Six cities, one in each of the six agro‐ecological zones which were Calabar, Enugu, Ikeja, Ilorin, Kaduna, and Maiduguri were selected. Geographic information systems mapping for spatial analysis of temperature and rainfall over Nigeria was carried out. Mann–Kendall, Sens' tests, Pettitt's, and Buishand's tests and multiple linear regressions were used as statistical tools for analysis. Increasing rainfall trends in Enugu, Calabar, and Ikeja but decreasing trends were observed in Ilorin Kaduna and Maiduguri while temperature showed increasing trends in all the cities in the last four decades. Statistically significant positive trends of rice yield, rainfall, and temperature were observed in Ikeja and Maiduguri in the last four decades. Mann–Kendall tests showed that rice yield and temperature had generally statistically significant positive trends in Calabar Ilorin Kaduna, and Enugu while rainfall and yield were significant in Calabar Enugu but not significant in Ilorin and Maiduguri adaptation strategies to genetically modify rice varieties and effective water use strategies in areas of rainfall deficit are recommended to ensure food security.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Trends and spatial analysis of temperature and rainfall patterns on rice yields in Nigeria

Akinbile

Ogunmola

Abolude

et al. 2020

Atmospheric Science Letters

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“…Schlenker and Roberts (2009a, b) found that temperature was positively correlated with crop yield in a suitable temperature range in America. Akinbile et al (2015) analyzed the influence of climate change on rice yield in Nigeria and found that temperature had significant positive effects on rice yield. In China, Tao et al (2008) found that the temperature significantly increased with rice yield in China during 1951-2002, especially in northeastern China.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Contribution of climatic and technological factors to crop yield: empirical evidence from late paddy rice in Hunan Province, China

Wang

Tao

Jun

et al. 2016

Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess

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Climatic and technological factors are two remarkable aspects that are thought to contribute to crop yield change. However, the most significant factors and their contribution rate remain debatable. Selecting Hunan Province, which is one of the largest paddy rice producing regions in China as the research area, the marginal contributions of climatic and technological factors to late paddy yield change are estimated using a county-level panel data regression model with explicit consideration of technological variables during 2000-2011. The results indicate that the mean daily temperature and adoption rate of hybrid rice have significant positive impacts on late paddy rice yield. During the research period, 1°C temperature increase will cause 7.220 t/km 2 increase in late paddy rice yield, and 1 % increase in the adoption rate of hybrid rice will cause 0.212 t/km 2 increase. Climatic factors, especially their annual variability, exhibit a stronger overall linkage to changes in late paddy rice yield in the study area compared with the technological factors. Climatic factors accounted for 67.645 and 74.585 % of the trend and variability in late paddy rice yield, respectively. The results of this study can provide valuable information for stakeholders to adjust the input on late paddy rice production and better adapt to the effect of climate change.

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“…This increase in temperature will increase the frequency of extreme weather events, especially extreme high temperature events. Rice is among the world's most important food crops, and it is a primary source of food for over 50% of the world's population [2,3]. Frequent and extreme high temperature events will increase the risk of rice yield losses [4], which is a serious threat to the global food supply.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Global Spatial Distributions of and Trends in Rice Exposure to High Temperature

Wang

Jiang

et al. 2019

Sustainability

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Due to the effects of global warming, extreme temperature events are posing a great threat to crop yields, especially to temperature-sensitive crops such as rice. In the context of disaster risk theory, exposure is central to disaster prevention and reduction. Thus, a comprehensive analysis of crop exposure is essential to better reduce disaster effects. By combining the maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) and a multiple-criteria decision analysis (MCDA), this paper analyzed the global distribution and change in rice exposure to high temperature. The results showed the future states of rice after exposure to high temperatures. Our results are: (1) the areas of potential rice distribution zones decreased within the representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios RCP2.6 to RCP8.5 in MaxEnt, where the long-term (2061–2080) decreases are greater than those seen in the medium term (2041–2060). (2) In the future, the number of high temperature hazards in potential rice distribution areas increased. In the RCP8.5 scenario, the intensities of global high temperature hazards on rice were reduced because the total area of potential rice distribution zones decreased. (3) Through the view of barycenter shift, the barycenter of the global potential rice and high temperature hazard distributions showed a trend of backward motion, which meant the global rice exposure to high temperature was in a downward trend. With the background of global change, this paper has great significance for the mitigation of high temperature risk in rice and its effect on the potential security of future global rice production. Future research is warranted to concentrate on discussing more socioeconomic factors and increasing rice exposure change from the temporal vision.

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Trend analysis in climatic variables and impacts on rice yield in Nigeria

Cited by 32 publications

References 26 publications

Trends and spatial analysis of temperature and rainfall patterns on rice yields in Nigeria

Trends and spatial analysis of temperature and rainfall patterns on rice yields in Nigeria

Contribution of climatic and technological factors to crop yield: empirical evidence from late paddy rice in Hunan Province, China

Global Spatial Distributions of and Trends in Rice Exposure to High Temperature

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