Global Spatial Distributions of and Trends in Rice Exposure to High Temperature

Abstract

Due to the effects of global warming, extreme temperature events are posing a great threat to crop yields, especially to temperature-sensitive crops such as rice. In the context of disaster risk theory, exposure is central to disaster prevention and reduction. Thus, a comprehensive analysis of crop exposure is essential to better reduce disaster effects. By combining the maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) and a multiple-criteria decision analysis (MCDA), this paper analyzed the global distribution and change in rice exposure to high temperature. The results showed the future states of rice after exposure to high temperatures. Our results are: (1) the areas of potential rice distribution zones decreased within the representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios RCP2.6 to RCP8.5 in MaxEnt, where the long-term (2061–2080) decreases are greater than those seen in the medium term (2041–2060). (2) In the future, the number of high temperature hazards in potential rice distribution areas increased. In the RCP8.5 scenario, the intensities of global high temperature hazards on rice were reduced because the total area of potential rice distribution zones decreased. (3) Through the view of barycenter shift, the barycenter of the global potential rice and high temperature hazard distributions showed a trend of backward motion, which meant the global rice exposure to high temperature was in a downward trend. With the background of global change, this paper has great significance for the mitigation of high temperature risk in rice and its effect on the potential security of future global rice production. Future research is warranted to concentrate on discussing more socioeconomic factors and increasing rice exposure change from the temporal vision.

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