The Global Potential Distribution of Invasive Plants: Anredera cordifolia under Climate Change and Human Activity Based on Random Forest Models

Abstract

The potential distribution of the invasive plant Anredera cordifolia (Tenore) Steenis was predicted by Random Forest models under current and future climate-change pathways (i.e., RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 of 2050s and the 2070s). Pearson correlations were used to select variables; the prediction accuracy of the models was evaluated by using AUC, Kappa, and TSS. The results show that suitable future distribution areas are mainly in Southeast Asia, Eastern Oceania, a few parts of Eastern Africa, Southern North America, and Eastern South America. Temperature is the key climatic factor affecting the distribution of A. cordifolia. Important metrics include mean temperature of the coldest quarter (0.3 • C ≤ Bio11 ≤ 22.9 • C), max temperature of the warmest month (17.1 • C ≤ Bio5 ≤ 35.5 • C), temperature annual range (10.7 • C ≤ Bio7 ≤ 33 • C), annual mean air temperature (6.8 • C ≤ Bio1 ≤ 24.4 • C), and min temperature of coldest month (−2.8 • C ≤ Bio6 ≤ 17.2 • C). Only one precipitation index (Bio19) was important, precipitation of coldest quarter (7 mm ≤ Bio19 ≤ 631 mm). In addition, areas with strong human activities are most prone to invasion. This species is native to Brazil, but has been introduced in Asia, where it is widely planted and has escaped from cultivation. Under the future climate scenarios, suitable habitat areas of A. cordifolia will expand to higher latitudes. This study can provide a reference for the rational management and control of A. cordifolia.

Analysis of the Adaptative Strategy of Cirsium vulgare (Savi) Ten. in the Colonization of New Territories

“…It is clear that there is a correlation between human intervention and the proliferation and success of invasive species, and some studies have highlighted the vulnerability of invaded ecosystems, emphasizing landscape structure as a determining factor in the success of the invasion [48,58]. In our case, when the weight of the Human Footprint (HFP) was analyzed (Figure 2h), we observed a relationship between the proliferation of our species in areas where humans modified the natural landscape, one of the most outstanding in the fields of agricultural production [59].…”

Predicting the distribution of the invasive species Hyptis suaveolens in Nigeria

“…Low temperature and low moisture environments limit its invasive potential worldwide (Padalia et al 2014). It is well known that other climatic factors, such as moisture balance and extreme temperatures, determine plant distribution (Stephenson 1990;Widrlechner et al 2012;Zhang et al 2020). Several studies report the effect of moisture and extreme temperatures on the physiological characteristics of plants, such as growth, yield, flowering and tolerance (Tandazo-Yung et al 2017;Song et al 2018).…”

Modeling habitat suitability of Hippophae rhamnoides L. using MaxEnt under climate change in China: A case study of H. r. sinensis and H. r. turkestanica

“…We used the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) as the evaluation indicator of the accuracy of the MaxEnt model because the AUC is not affected by the choice of threshold (Peterson et al, 2008). The ROC curve is a graphical method that uses multiple thresholds to show the relationship between false positive ratio (one minus the-specificity) and sensitivity (Zhang et al, 2020;Fang et al, 2021). The AUC values range between 0 and 1.…”