Tree‐ring data document 16th century megadrought over North America

Stahle, David W.; Cook, Edward R.; Cleaveland, Malcolm K.; Therrell, Matthew D.; Meko, David M.; Grissino-Mayer, Henri D.; Watson, Emma; Luckman, Brian H.

doi:10.1029/00eo00076

Cited by 278 publications

(211 citation statements)

References 7 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

194

Contrasting

Unclassified

Order By: Relevance

“…Documentation of climatic outliers using the observational record is essentially circumscribed by the brevity of this record. Proxy climatic records (Stahle et al, 2000;Jones and Mann, 2004;Briffa et al, 2004; among many others) provide valuable datasets, but these are limited both in their spatial coverage and temporal extent. Consequently, at the current time there is a dearth of knowledge surrounding the climatology of outliers.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climatic outliers

Hunt¹

2006

Intl Journal of Climatology

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract:A 10 000-year simulation for 'present' climate has been generated with the CSIRO Mark 2 coupled climatic model. In this paper the model output has been analysed to produce a climatology of climatic outliers and to assess the role of such outliers in climatic variability. An assessment of the frequency of occurrence of outliers, compared with the statistical expectation from a Gaussian distribution, indicates that over most of the globe the surface temperature conforms to this distribution, but this is not the case for rainfall. Among the issues considered are the spatial occurrence rates over the globe of normalised climatic anomalies of various magnitudes, the temporal variability of outliers, the seasonal variability for a given outlier year, the spatial characteristics of outliers and the question of precursors to outliers. The relationship of outliers to the El Niño/Southern Oscillation, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation is also considered. A case study examining the relative severities of an outlier drought to a severe drought is also undertaken. Finally, the role of outliers and the greenhouse effect is considered. It is concluded that outliers are a manifestation of stochastic forcing.

show abstract

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climatic outliers

Hunt¹

2006

Intl Journal of Climatology

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Records collectively suggest a broader range of hydroclimatic variability than contained in instrumental records, particularly with respect to drought extent, duration, and severity. Several notable droughts extended across much of western North America, including severe and sustained droughts in the late 16th century and the medieval period, between 900-1300 AD (23)(24)(25). In this period, episodes of extensive severe drought are documented by a variety of proxy data, but most dramatically by evidence of trees rooted in lakes and river courses in the Sierra Nevada and northwestern Great Basin (26,27).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

A 1,200-year perspective of 21st century drought in southwestern North America

Woodhouse

Meko

MacDonald

et al. 2010

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

Self Cite

333

218

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

A key feature of anticipated 21st century droughts in Southwest North America is the concurrence of elevated temperatures and increased aridity. Instrumental records and paleoclimatic evidence for past prolonged drought in the Southwest that coincide with elevated temperatures can be assessed to provide insights on temperature-drought relations and to develop worst-case scenarios for the future. In particular, during the medieval period, ∼AD 900-1300, the Northern Hemisphere experienced temperatures warmer than all but the most recent decades. Paleoclimatic and model data indicate increased temperatures in western North America of approximately 1°C over the long-term mean. This was a period of extensive and persistent aridity over western North America. Paleoclimatic evidence suggests drought in the mid-12th century far exceeded the severity, duration, and extent of subsequent droughts. The driest decade of this drought was anomalously warm, though not as warm as the late 20th and early 21st centuries. The convergence of prolonged warming and arid conditions suggests the mid-12th century may serve as a conservative analogue for severe droughts that might occur in the future. The severity, extent, and persistence of the 12th century drought that occurred under natural climate variability, have important implications for water resource management. The causes of past and future drought will not be identical but warm droughts, inferred from paleoclimatic records, demonstrate the plausibility of extensive, severe droughts, provide a long-term perspective on the ongoing drought conditions in the Southwest, and suggest the need for regional sustainability planning for the future.climate change | water resources | paleoclimatology | medieval period C limate-change projections clearly indicate what observations already suggest: Temperatures everywhere will be warmer in the future due to anthropogenic activities. General circulation models (GCMs) project continued warming, with annual temperatures 3-5°C above current levels by the end of the century (1). As previous articles in this Special Feature have discussed, warming temperatures, even without reductions in precipitation, will have far-reaching impacts on hydrologic sustainability in the Southwest. Twenty-first century droughts will occur under warmer temperatures with greater rates of evapotranspiration than occurred during the major droughts of the 20th century. Warming may also directly and indirectly increase the propensity for droughts in the Southwest (2-4). However, major 20th century droughts pale in comparison to droughts documented in paleoclimatic records over the past two millennia (5). Thus, warm droughts of the prehistoric past might provide evidence useful in understanding the current climatological changes, and for providing scenarios for worst-case droughts of the future and evidence of hydroclimatic responses in the Southwest to warmer climatic conditions. This paper examines recent temperature-drought relations and analyzes paleoclimatic data docum...

show abstract

“…During the second half of the 16th century, these severe drought conditions dominated much of the continental USA. In the eastern states drought conditions were particularly severe during the 1560s (1559 to 1569) and 1580s to 1590s (Stahle et al 2000). There is also evidence that, prior to A.D. 1200, extreme and large-scale droughts occurred more frequently and were more persistent than during any time since (Laird et al 1996).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 83%

“…Paleoclimate reconstructions suggest that droughts in the 16th century exceeded the severity, duration, and spatial extent of droughts witnessed during the period of instrumental record, and thus have been titled 'megadroughts' (Woodhouse & Overpeck 1998, Stahle et al 2000. During the second half of the 16th century, these severe drought conditions dominated much of the continental USA.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Tree-ring-based reconstructions of past climates have been used for the following: (1) to explain the disappearance of the buffalo herd (Woodhouse et al 2002) and the collapse of civilizations (deMenocal 2001); (2) to search for analogues of 20th century drought (moisture) patterns (Fye et al 2003); (3) to investigate the temporal patterns of drought recurrence (periodicities) (Stockton & Meko 1983, Cook et al 1997; (4) and to reconstruct the magnitude, severity, and spatial extent of growing-season drought events (Woodhouse & Overpeck 1998, Cook et al 1999, Stahle et al 2000. The majority of these tree-ring studies have focused on the central and western USA because an abundance of suitable tree-ring data exists and the relationship between tree rings and climate is quite direct.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Growing-season moisture variability in the eastern USA during the last 800 years

Quiring

2004

Clim. Res.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

An 800 yr tree-ring-based reconstruction of the Palmer Hydrological Drought Index was used to document the frequency, severity, and duration of growing-season moisture anomalies (both wet and dry events) in the southern mid-Atlantic region of the USA. The data indicate that this region has experienced significant growing-season moisture variability (interannual to multidecadal) since A.D. 1185. Conditions during the 18th century were much wetter than they are today, and the droughts that occurred during the 16th century tended to be both longer and more severe. The recent growing-season moisture anomalies that occurred during 2002 and 2003 can only be considered rare events if they are evaluated with respect to the relatively short instrumental record (1895 to 2003). When compared to the 800 yr reconstructed record, neither of these events is particularly unusual. Growing-season moisture conditions during the 20th century appear to be well within the range of natural climate variability when compared to the 800 yr record.

show abstract

Tree‐ring data document 16th century megadrought over North America

Cited by 278 publications

References 7 publications

Climatic outliers

Climatic outliers

A 1,200-year perspective of 21st century drought in southwestern North America

Growing-season moisture variability in the eastern USA during the last 800 years

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About