Growing-season moisture variability in the eastern USA during the last 800 years

Quiring, Steven M.

doi:10.3354/cr027009

Cited by 9 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 16 publications

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“…Growing season moisture variability in the southern portions of the mid-Atlantic region was investigated by Quiring (2004). Using 800-year tree-ring series, the Palmer Hydrological Drought Index (PHDI) was reconstructed for the period from about 1200 through the late 20th century.…”

Section: Previous Researchmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…An integration of the studies above suggest that the SRB likely experienced an interval of warmth (Cronin et al, , 2005Pederson et al, 2005) and dryness (Brush, 2001;Willard et al, 2003;Pederson et al, 2005;Saenger et al, 2006) during the period from about 800 to 1200, a time synonymous with the Medieval Warm Period in northern Europe. The region experienced generally cooler conditions during the time of the Atlantic Sector Little Ice Age (1400-1700), with highly variable summer moisture conditions throughout the last four centuries (Stahle et al, 1998;Quiring, 2004).…”

Section: Previous Researchmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Hydroclimatic variability across the Susquehanna River Basin, USA, since the 17th century

Leathers¹,

Malin²,

Kluver³

et al. 2008

Intl Journal of Climatology

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ABSTRACT:The Susquehanna River Basin (SRB) is an extensive river drainage network that covers a total of 71 228 km 2 in portions of New York, Pennsylvania, and Maryland, with more than 4 million inhabitants. It is the major source of fresh water to the USA's largest estuary, the Chesapeake Bay. Therefore, the hydroclimatic conditions within the SRB affect a large human population in addition to the ecological health of one of the world's most complicated and important estuarine environments.This research project seeks to document the hydroclimatic history of the SRB and to understand the relationships between global-scale forcing mechanisms and the climatic variability of the Basin. Hydroclimatic variability since 1680 is documented through the reconstruction of temperature, precipitation, streamflow and a drought index using proxy and observational data. Results indicate that the hydroclimatic history of the SRB is very complex. Prior to the advent of European settlement, the SRB seems to have responded in concert with other landmasses within the North Atlantic Sector evidencing a regional manifestation of both the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age. Since the beginning of European settlement, the hydroclimate of the SRB has varied greatly on both inter-annual and decadal time scales. The climatic variability of the SRB is found to be only weakly associated with large-scale forcing mechanisms that are commonly assumed to influence the eastern USA. A notable exception is a strong temperature response associated with volcanic activity. Thus, regional forcings and land cover variations may play an important role in the hydroclimatic variability of this important river system.

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Section: Previous Researchmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Previous Researchmentioning

confidence: 99%

Hydroclimatic variability across the Susquehanna River Basin, USA, since the 17th century

Leathers¹,

Malin²,

Kluver³

et al. 2008

Intl Journal of Climatology

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“…More recently, they identified 14 dry/wet cycles since 1500 AD and found evidence of multidecadal droughts in the 16th and 17th centuries. Quiring (2004) also found evidence of multidecadal drought in the eastern United States during the 16th century and suggested that the droughts of 2002–2003 in the East were not unusual relative to the past 800 years.…”

Section: Proxy Recordmentioning

confidence: 96%

Multidecadal Climate Variability and Drought in the United States

Goodrich

2007

Geography Compass

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The history of multidecadal climate variability and drought in the United States during the past millennium is reviewed, and recent research into the physical mechanisms that produce long‐term aridity is examined. Numerous multiyear droughts that have major social repercussions for contemporary and prehistoric societies can be identified in instrumental and proxy records. The 16th‐century megadrought in the Southwest was the worst long period of aridity in the past 500 years. A prolonged period of aridity in the western United States from 900 to 1300 AD, which coincided with the Medieval Warm Period, is indicative of a mean shift in climate that ended in roughly 1400 AD. While the causes of these and other multiyear droughts are still under investigation, there is strong statistical and modeled evidence that persistent La Niña‐like sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific force hemispheric and zonal symmetry in multidecadal droughts. In other words, persistent cooler than normal sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific force anomalous atmospheric circulations that produce multiyear droughts not only in the Great Plains and the Southwest, but also in the Mediterranean region of Europe, the Pampas region of South America, the steppes of Central Asia, and the outback of Western Australia. Other possible causes of long period drought include low‐frequency variability in the north Pacific and Atlantic oceans and global warming in the Anthropocene.

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“…In the Mid‐Atlantic United States, growing season moisture conditions during the twentieth century were within the range of natural climate variability when compared to the tree ring record dating to 1185 [ Quiring , 2004]. A 500 year tree ring reconstruction of PDSI in southeastern New York State indicated severe droughts occurred during the 1560s, 1620s, 1680s, 1750s, 1790s, 1820s, 1870s, 1910, and early 1960s [ Lyon et al , 2005].…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Frequency and intensity of extreme drought in the Delaware Basin, 1600–2002

Kauffman

Vonck

2011

Water Resources Research

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The frequency and severity of drought in the Delaware Basin between 1600 and 2002 are examined using the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) estimated from tree ring data and correlated with reconstructed annual low flows. In the Delaware Basin, the most severe drought in nearly a century occurred during 1995–2002 as the Brandywine River, Delaware's largest surface water supply, ran dry at its mouth and declined to the lowest flow on record since 1912. To evaluate the long‐term context of the 1995–2002 droughts given a variable hydroclimate, tree ring and PDSI data were correlated to reconstruct flows along the river to 1600, the beginning of European exploration to the Delaware Bay. Reconstructed PDSI and low flows were fit using general extreme value (GEV) distributions to estimate drought frequency. Some variability is present as reconstructed low flows tend to overestimate recorded streamflow in severe dry years, a finding reported by others. Some uncertainty appears in the correlations as the coefficient of multiple determination (CRSQ) between recorded and estimated PDSI from tree ring data is 0.50–0.54, a level of variance considered to be “quite good,” and the coefficient of determination (r2) between PDSI and low flow is 0.52. Given the uncertainty, PDSI and reconstructed low flow data both agree that the most extreme drought in 400 years occurred during 1635, and the drought of 1995–2000 was historically extreme with differences only in the degree of severity. On the basis of PDSI, the 2002, 1999, and 1995 droughts were the sixth, twelfth, and seventeenth most severe in 400 years with frequencies of once every 50, 33, and 16 years, respectively. Based on low flow, the 2002, 1999, and 1995 droughts were the second, fourth, and ninth most severe since 1600 with frequencies of once every 200, 100, and 50 years, respectively. The record drought of 2002 has a low probability of reoccurring in any given year (2.0% by PDSI and 0.5% by low flow), but droughts nearly as severe have occurred during the 1630s, 1680s, 1820s, 1840s, 1860s, 1930s, 1940s, and 1960s. Increased intensities of drought low flows in Delaware during the late twentieth century through 2002 were coincident with population growth, watershed urbanization, and atmospheric warming although these associations were not correlated and further study is needed. Over 400 years of tree ring, PDSI, and reconstructed streamflow data indicate that the Delaware Basin record drought of 1995–2002 was a historically severe event with important implications for water supply and drought management. Droughts more severe than the record 2002 event have occurred in the past, and droughts may become even more intense should watershed urbanization and atmospheric warming continue in the future.

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Growing-season moisture variability in the eastern USA during the last 800 years

Cited by 9 publications

References 16 publications

Hydroclimatic variability across the Susquehanna River Basin, USA, since the 17th century

Hydroclimatic variability across the Susquehanna River Basin, USA, since the 17th century

Multidecadal Climate Variability and Drought in the United States

Frequency and intensity of extreme drought in the Delaware Basin, 1600–2002

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