Hydroclimatic variability across the Susquehanna River Basin, USA, since the 17th century

Leathers, Daniel J.; Malin, Melissa L.; Kluver, Daria; Henderson, Gina R.; Bogart, Tianna A.

doi:10.1002/joc.1668

Cited by 16 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 20 publications

(53 reference statements)

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“…The teleconnection variables showed a similar explanatory power (with an R-squared value of up to 22%) over the 53-yr period to that obtained by Griffiths and Bradley (2007) and Leathers et al (2008), who used similar time periods. However, little explanatory power was obtained for the indices over 103 ears.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 72%

“…Previous studies of temperature and precipitation in the United States have linked climatic variability to a number of large-scale forcing mechanisms, such as the El Niñ o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Arctic Oscillation (AO) (Griffiths and Bradley 2007;Leathers et al 2008). While a comprehensive analysis of the effect of such mechanisms is beyond the scope of this study, an exploratory analysis was performed.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Changes in Extreme Climate Indices for the Northeastern United States, 1870–2005

2010

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The northeastern United States is one of the most variable climates in the world, and how climate extremes are changing is critical to populations, industries, and the environment in this region. A long-term (1870-2005) temperature and precipitation dataset was compiled for the northeastern United States to assess how the climate has changed. Adjustments were made to daily temperatures to account for changes in mean, variance, and skewness resulting from inhomogeneities, but precipitation data were not adjusted. Trends in 17 temperature and 10 precipitation indices at 40 stations were evaluated over three time periods-1893-2005, 1893-1950, and 1951-2005-and over 1870-2005 for a subset of longer-term stations. Temperature indices indicate strong warming with increases in the frequency of warm events (e.g., warm nights and warm summer days) and decreases in the frequency of cold events (e.g., ice days, frost days, and the cold spell duration indicator). The strongest warming is exhibited in the decrease in frost days and the increase in growing season length. Although maximum temperatures indices showed strong warming trends over the period 1893-1950, subsequent trends show little change and cooling. Few significant trends were present in the precipitation indices; however, they displayed a tendency toward wetter conditions. A stepwise multiple linear regression analysis indicated that some of the variability in the 27 indices from 1951 to 2002 was explained by the North Atlantic Oscillation, Pacific decadal oscillation, and Pacific-North American pattern. However, teleconnection patterns showed little influence on the 27 indices over a 103-yr period.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 72%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Changes in Extreme Climate Indices for the Northeastern United States, 1870–2005

2010

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“…For the 11 Nunavut weather stations with continuous or close to continuous data from 1946 to 2015 (Figure ), we extracted monthly mean temperatures directly from Environment Canada's national climate data archive (Environment Canada, ) or calculated monthly mean temperatures from Environment Canada's daily temperature archive data. In some instances, the monthly temperatures were missing from the Environment Canada data and, in these cases, we hindcast or reconstructed the monthly mean temperature using data from the closest weather station (Leathers, Malin, Kluver, Henderson, & Bogart, ; Panchen & Gorelick, ; Panchen et al., ; Throop, Smith, & Lewkowicz, ). The latitude, longitude, and elevation of the weather stations have not changed over the 70‐year period.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Prediction of Arctic plant phenological sensitivity to climate change from historical records

Panchen

Gorelick

2017

Ecology and Evolution

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The pace of climate change in the Arctic is dramatic, with temperatures rising at a rate double the global average. The timing of flowering and fruiting (phenology) is often temperature dependent and tends to advance as the climate warms. Herbarium specimens, photographs, and field observations can provide historical phenology records and have been used, on a localised scale, to predict species' phenological sensitivity to climate change. Conducting similar localised studies in the Canadian Arctic, however, poses a challenge where the collection of herbarium specimens, photographs, and field observations have been temporally and spatially sporadic.We used flowering and seed dispersal times of 23 Arctic species from herbarium specimens, photographs, and field observations collected from across the 2.1 million km 2 area of Nunavut, Canada, to determine (1) which monthly temperatures influence flowering and seed dispersal times; (2) species' phenological sensitivity to temperature; and (3) whether flowering or seed dispersal times have advanced over the past 120 years. We tested this at different spatial scales and compared the sensitivity in different regions of Nunavut. Broadly speaking, this research serves as a proof of concept to assess whether phenology-climate change studies using historic data can be conducted at large spatial scales. Flowering times and seed dispersal time were most strongly correlated with June and July temperatures, respectively. Seed dispersal times have advanced at double the rate of flowering times over the past 120 years, reflecting greater late-summer temperature rises in Nunavut. There is great diversity in the flowering time sensitivity to temperature of Arctic plant species, suggesting climate change implications for Arctic ecological communities, including altered community composition, competition, and pollinator interactions.Intraspecific temperature sensitivity and warming trends varied markedly across Nunavut and could result in greater changes in some parts of Nunavut than in others. K E Y W O R D SArctic, climate change, flowering time, herbarium specimen, Nunavut, seed dispersal time, temperature sensitivity

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“…Because of a lack of existing research and a scarcity of local climate records prior to 1900, few estimates exist of the impact of the acute deforestation in the SRB on its climate and hydrology. Leathers et al (2007) investigated the hydroclimatological history of the SRB and explored the role of land cover changes on the regional climate. They found that the SRB did not respond strongly to any of the major hemispheric-scale forcing mechanisms thought to affect the climate of eastern North America.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mesoscale Simulations of the Land Surface Effects of Historical Logging in a Moist Continental Climate Regime

Klingaman

Butke

Leathers

et al. 2008

Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology

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An enhanced knowledge of the feedbacks from land surface changes on regional climates is of great importance in the attribution of climate change. To explore the effects of deforestation on a midlatitude climate regime, two sets of two five-member ensembles of 28-day simulations were conducted using the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University-National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model (MM5) coupled to the "Noah" land surface model. The four ensembles represented conditions in summer (August) and winter (February) across the northern mid-Atlantic United States before and after extensive late-nineteenth-century logging of hardwood forests in central and northern Pennsylvania. Prelogging ensembles prescribed a vegetative cover of an evergreen needleleaf forest; postlogging ensembles prescribed sparse vegetation and bare soil to simulate clear-cut deforestation. The results of the MM5 experiments showed a decided seasonality in the response of the land surface-atmosphere system to deforestation, with much stronger effects arising in summer. In August, deforestation caused a repartitioning of the surface energy budget, beginning with a decrease in the latent heat flux of more than 60 W m Ϫ2 across the land cover-forcing area, representing almost one-half of the latent heat flux under prelogging land cover. Concomitant with this decrease in evapotranspiration, mean 2-m air temperatures warmed by at least 1.5°C. Increases in sensible heat flux led to a 150-m mean increase in the height of the atmospheric boundary layer over the deforested area. Low-level atmospheric mixing ratios and total precipitation decreased under clear-cut conditions. Mean soil moisture increased in all model levels to 150 cm because of a decrease in vegetative uptake of water, except at the 5-cm level at which such decreases were effectively balanced by greater soil evaporation and less precipitation. A strong diurnal variation in the response to deforestation of ground and lower-atmosphere temperatures and heat fluxes was also identified for the summer season. The February simulations showed the effects of deforestation during low-insolation months to be small and variable. The strong response of the summer land surface-atmosphere system to deforestation shown here suggests that land cover changes can appreciably affect regional climates. Thus, the role of human-induced and naturally occurring land cover variability should not be ignored in the attribution of climate change.

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Hydroclimatic variability across the Susquehanna River Basin, USA, since the 17th century

Cited by 16 publications

References 20 publications

Changes in Extreme Climate Indices for the Northeastern United States, 1870–2005

Changes in Extreme Climate Indices for the Northeastern United States, 1870–2005

Prediction of Arctic plant phenological sensitivity to climate change from historical records

Mesoscale Simulations of the Land Surface Effects of Historical Logging in a Moist Continental Climate Regime

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