Transmission of climate risks across sectors and borders

Abstract

Systemic climate risks, which result from the potential for cascading impacts through inter-related systems, pose particular challenges to risk assessment, especially when risks are transmitted across sectors and international boundaries. Most impacts of climate variability and change affect regions and jurisdictions in complex ways, and techniques for assessing this transmission of risk are still somewhat limited. Here, we begin to define new approaches to risk assessment that can account for transboundary and trans-sector risk transmission, by presenting: (i) a typology of risk transmission that distinguishes clearly the role of climate versus the role of the social and economic systems that distribute resources; (ii) a review of existing modelling, qualitative and systems-based methods of assessing risk and risk transmission; and (iii) case studies that examine risk transmission in human displacement, food, water and energy security. The case studies show that policies and institutions can attenuate risks significantly through cooperation that can be mutually beneficial to all parties. We conclude with some suggestions for assessment of complex risk transmission mechanisms: use of expert judgement; interactive scenario building; global systems science and big data; innovative use of climate and integrated assessment models; and methods to understand societal responses to climate risk. These approaches aim to inform both research and national-level risk assessment.

A relational view of climate adaptation in the private sector: How do value chain interactions shape business perceptions of climate risk and adaptive behaviours?

“…However, as Andreoni and Miola (2015) and Ridoutt et al (2016) have pointed out, most studies and methodologies investigating the impacts of climate change on agricultural commodities have sought to quantify direct costs on specific production areas (e.g., crops or processing factories). Few studies have examined how climate risks are transmitted through whole food value chains (see, e.g., Challinor et al, 2018;Hedlund et al, 2018). Some have acknowledged the role of social networks on farmers' vulnerability and adaptive capacity (Ali & Erestein, 2017;Rhiney et al, 2015) and mapped the role of value chain information networks on adaptation decision outcomes (Nidumolu, Lim-Camacho, Gaillard, Hayman, & Howden, 2018).…”

COVID-19 and disruptions to food systems

“…The last decade's food price spikes created a focus on the potential for climate-change driven disruptions on food systems (Challinor et al 2018). Climate change is not only about new extremes of weather that may disrupt on our food systems, but is also likely to create new challenges through new pests and diseases of crops and livestock, that disrupt agriculture: as climate changes, pests and diseases move, and there are opportunities for them to escape from natural ecological mechanisms that keep them under control (Bebber et al 2013).…”

Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy

“…As Challinor et al [38] argue, the presence of political boundaries across natural systems such as seas and watersheds represent a barrier, and sometimes an amplification of risks.…”

“…Challinor et al [38] explore this in the context of risk transmission across international boundaries, which are linked to mechanisms such as price, material flows, movement of people and political stability, with specific emphasis on food security and geopolitical risks.…”

“…In this theme issue, there are a range of new perspectives on how to assess these interdependencies and interactions, [35], the business-function framework for risks to industry and business applied by Surminski et al [37], and the risk transmission framing in Challinor et al [38] showcase methodological advances. However, they all also conclude that further interdisciplinary advances in integrated assessment approaches that link dynamic biophysical and socio-economic components of risk exposure and vulnerability are required (see also [44]).…”