Translating niche features: Modelling differential exposure of Argentine reptiles to global climate change

Abstract

Global climate change affects the distributions of ectotherms and may be the cause of several conservation problems, such as great displacement of climatic suitable spaces for species and, consequently, important reductions of the extent of liveable places, threatening the existence of many of them. Species exposure (and hence vulnerability) to global climate change is linked to features of their climatic niches (such as the relative position of the inhabited localities of each species in the climatic space), and therefore to characteristics of their geographic ranges (such as the extent of the distributions or altitudinal range inhabited by the species). In order to analyze the pattern of response of Argentine reptiles to global climate change, we ran phylogenetic generalized least squares models using species exposure to global climate change as a response variable, and (i) niche properties (breadth and position of the species in the climate space) and (ii) general features of the distribution of species (maximum latitude, altitudinal range, maximum elevation, distributional range and proximity to the most important dispersal barrier) as predictors. Our results suggest that the best way to explain climate change exposure is by combining breadth and position of climatic niche of the species or combining geographic features that are indicators of both niche characteristics. Our best model shows that in our study area, species with the narrowest distributional ranges that also inhabit the highest elevations are the most exposed to the effects of global climate change. In this sense, reptile species from Yungas, Puna and Andes ecoregions could be especially vulnerable to the effects of climate change. We believe that these types of models may represent an interesting tool for determining species and places particularly threatened by the effects of global climate change, which should be strongly considered in conservation planning.

Climate Change and Dispersal Ability Jointly Affects the Future Distribution of Crocodile Lizards

“…Global climate change is affecting the distribution of ectotherms and may be the cause of a number of conservation issues, such as the dramatic displacement of suitable climatic space for species, leading to a significant reduction in habitable sites and threatening the existence of many of them [ 101 ]. The results of the ENMs and MigClim model were consistent, with suitable habitats for crocodile lizards showing an overall trend of decreasing with increasing temperature.…”

Reptile species persistence under climate change and direct human threats in north-western Argentina

“…This result reflects the focus of the prioritization on the potential effects of climate change on species’ distributions. In addition, in NWA, high-altitude areas and the species that are found there are the most exposed to climate change (Nori et al 2016b) and many species are involved, including several endemics (Szumik et al 2012). While climate and land-use changes jeopardize the existence of many species in NWA, comprehensive conservation planning is still needed.…”

“…Furthermore, reptiles are generally among the vertebrates that are most threatened by global climate change (Sinervo et al 2010) and agricultural practices (Gibbons et al 2000). Particularly in NWA, reptiles are highly exposed to climate change (Nori et al 2016b) and/or threatened by land-use changes (Torres et al 2014).…”

Effects of future climate change on the forests of Madagascar

“…The concerns for the survival of many species in a warming world have resulted in a succession of recent studies that have explored the effects of climate change on the potential distribution, occurrence, and abundance of a wide range of threatened taxa under a selection of future climate scenarios, via predictive modeling (Araújo et al, 2019; Foden et al, 2019; Gotelli & Stanton‐Geddes, 2015; Thomas, 2010). As expected, climate change has been predicted to have highly detrimental effects on many animal species if mitigation measures are not immediately implemented, with demographic shifts and range contractions predicted to occur in species of bats (e.g., Bailey et al, 2017; Rebelo et al, 2010), carnivorans (e.g., Morovati et al, 2020; Raman et al, 2020), primates (e.g., Sales et al, 2020; Stewart et al, 2020; Thinh et al, 2018), and herpetofauna (e.g., Lawler et al, 2010; Nori et al, 2016). These effects have also been observed in many species of plants, especially those with already‐limited distributions, and species of ecological, agricultural, or medicinal importance (e.g., Abrha et al, 2018; Rana et al, 2017; Tang et al, 2017; Wei et al, 2018).…”