Climate Change and Dispersal Ability Jointly Affects the Future Distribution of Crocodile Lizards

Abstract

Crocodile lizards (Shinisaurus crocodilurus) are an endangered, ‘living fossil’ reptile from a monophyletic family and therefore, a high priority for conservation. We constructed climatic models to evaluate the potential impact of climate change on the distribution of crocodile lizards for the period 2000 to 2100 and determined the key environmental factors that affect the dispersal of this endangered species. For the construction of climatic models, we used 985 presence-only data points and 6 predictor variables which showed excellent performance (AUC = 0.974). The three top-ranked factors predicting crocodile lizard distribution were precipitation of the wettest month (bio13, 37.1%), precipitation of the coldest quarter (bio19, 17.9%), and temperature seasonality (bio4, 14.3%). Crocodile lizards were, just as they are now, widely distributed in the north of Guangdong Province in China and Quảng Ninh Province in Vietnam at the last glacial maximum (LGM). Since the LGM, there has been an increase in suitable habitats, particularly in east-central Guangxi Province, China. Under future global warming scenarios, the potential habitat for crocodile lizards is expected to decrease significantly in the next 100 years. Under the most optimistic scenario, only 7.35% to 6.54% of suitable habitat will remain, and under the worst climatic scenario, only 8.34% to 0.86% of suitable habitat will remain. Models for no dispersal and limited dispersal showed that all crocodile lizards would lose habitat as temperatures increase. Our work contributes to an increased understanding of the current and future spatial distribution of the species, supporting practical management and conservation plans.

Identification of suitable habitats and priority conservation areas under climate change scenarios for the Chinese alligator (Alligator sinensis)

“…Since species with narrow distributions are more vulnerable to climate change (Schwartz et al, 2006;Thomas, 2010) as biological invasion and endangered species protection. In addition, the Maxent model also shows excellent performance in the simulation of narrow distribution areas of species, such as giant pandas, red pandas, and Crocodile Lizards (Liu et al, 2022;Thapa et al, 2018;Zhang et al, 2022). In this study, we employed a species distribution model (Maxent) We rigorously screened the environmental and occurrence data to avoid model overfitting.…”

“…Because of its simple operation and reliable results, the Maxent model has been widely used in conservation biology research such as biological invasion and endangered species protection. In addition, the Maxent model also shows excellent performance in the simulation of narrow distribution areas of species, such as giant pandas, red pandas, and Crocodile Lizards (Liu et al., 2022; Thapa et al., 2018; Zhang et al., 2022). In this study, we employed a species distribution model (Maxent) to assess changes in habitat suitability for the Chinese alligator in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River amidst climate change.…”

Responses of gut microbiota in crocodile lizards (Shinisaurus crocodilurus) to changes in temperature

“…In contrast, as a result of increasing temperatures, the offspring survival of crocodile lizards may be hampered ( Li et al, 2019 ). What’s worse, in a future global warming scenario, the potential range of crocodile lizards will continue to shrink ( Zhang X. et al, 2022 ). Therefore, rising ambient temperatures may impose a threat on the survival and reproduction of crocodile lizards.…”