Transition to modern growth in Great Britain: The role of technological progress, adult mortality and factor accumulation

Fiaschi, Davide; Fioroni, Tamara

doi:10.1016/j.strueco.2019.02.007

Cited by 11 publications

(18 citation statements)

References 46 publications

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“…From this standpoint, the model was set up to generate (endogenous) mortality and fertility transitions in the absence of HIV to evaluate a possible HIV-induced fertility reversal. 2011), Soares (2005), Tamura (2006) Cervellati and Sunde (2011), Livi-Bacci (2017), Fiaschi and Fioroni (2019)].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A contribution to the theory of economic development and the demographic transition: fertility reversal under the HIV epidemic

et al. 2020

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According to the conventional theory of the demographic transition, mortality decline has represented the major trigger of fertility decline and sustained economic development. In Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), the HIV/AIDS epidemic has had a devastating impact on mortality, dramatically reversing the long-term positive trend in life expectancies in high HIV-prevalence countries. Moreover, SSA is experiencing a delayed and slower fertility transition compared to other world regions and there is growing empirical evidence highlighting the potential for a paralysis, or even a reversal, of the fertility transition in countries with severe HIV epidemics. This work builds on a unified growth theory-like general equilibrium model combined with HIV spread, where mortality endogenously feeds back into fertility and education decisions. The model supports the evidence of an HIV-triggered fertility reversal in SSA via the fall in education and human capital investments due to increased adult mortality, which eventually breaks the switch from quantity to quality of children. Fertility reversal is predicted to be more likely to occur in countries experiencing severe HIV epidemics, and its effects may persist even under successful scenarios of HIV control. These results suggest that the alarming possibility of a paralysis in the fertility transition, which so far has aroused little concern among international organizations, e.g., in the last round of UN population projections, should be seriously considered with a view to prioritizing policy interventions.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A contribution to the theory of economic development and the demographic transition: fertility reversal under the HIV epidemic

et al. 2020

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“…The main message of our theoretical model is that mortality decline alone, despite the higher incentives to the accumulation of physical and human capital, has a negative impact on income in the long run (in the short run, where demographic pressure on resources is not yet fully working, an opposite result is possible). The observed positive correlation between mortality decline and income would therefore be the result of the (almost) contemporaneous advances in technological progress and health conditions (see Fiaschi and Fioroni, 2014 for a discussion on why these advances can stem from the same source). A possible positive feedback from income to health would configure a self-reinforcing mechanism which should not affect this conclusion.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In this section we briefly introduce a theoretical model capable of capturing most of the features related to the relationship between mortality and income present in literature; we refer to Fiaschi and Fioroni (2014) for more details.…”

Section: A Theoretical Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In this section we explore the properties of the model by numerical simulations. Our theoretical premise is that the causes of technological progress and adult mortality are exogenous to the economic sphere (see Fiaschi and Fioroni (2014) for more details) 12 . Physical and human capital, fertility, population, income, and consumption are instead our key endogenous variables.…”

Section: A Quantitative Exploration Of the Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In all the simulations we use the parameters calibrated for the UK economy for the period in 1541 − 1914 as discussed in Fiaschi and Fioroni (2014), and the initial population and fertility rate are always both set equal to 1, i.e. L 0 = 1 and n 0 = 1 if not differently stated.…”

Section: A Quantitative Exploration Of the Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Adult Mortality and Modern Growth

2017

Demographic Change and Long-Run Development

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In this paper we analyze the relationship between (adult) mortality and the long-run development of countries from an empirical and theoretical perspective. A quantitative exploration of the model shows that improvements in adult survival rates alone bring an economy towards a Malthusian regime in the long run, while a transition from a Malthusian to a modern regime requires substantial advances in technological progress. Limited gains in technological progress associated with a strong decline in adult mortality can produce a sort of "false" takeoff , i.e. an economy passed from a Malthusian to a pre-modern regime can be pushed back by the increasing demographic pressures.

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Health Spending, Education and Endogenous Demographics in an OLG Model

Cipriani

Fioroni

2019

Human Capital and Economic Growth

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Transition to modern growth in Great Britain: The role of technological progress, adult mortality and factor accumulation

Cited by 11 publications

References 46 publications

A contribution to the theory of economic development and the demographic transition: fertility reversal under the HIV epidemic

A contribution to the theory of economic development and the demographic transition: fertility reversal under the HIV epidemic

Adult Mortality and Modern Growth

Health Spending, Education and Endogenous Demographics in an OLG Model

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