Adult Mortality and Modern Growth

Abstract

In this paper we analyze the relationship between (adult) mortality and the long-run development of countries from an empirical and theoretical perspective. A quantitative exploration of the model shows that improvements in adult survival rates alone bring an economy towards a Malthusian regime in the long run, while a transition from a Malthusian to a modern regime requires substantial advances in technological progress. Limited gains in technological progress associated with a strong decline in adult mortality can produce a sort of "false" takeoff , i.e. an economy passed from a Malthusian to a pre-modern regime can be pushed back by the increasing demographic pressures.