Tradeoffs between US national forest harvest targets and fuel management to reduce wildfire transmission to the wildland urban interface

Ager, Alan A.; Houtman, Rachel; Day, Michelle A.; Ringo, Chris; Palaiologou, Palaiologos

doi:10.1016/j.foreco.2018.12.003

Cited by 41 publications

(23 citation statements)

References 51 publications

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“…FS-matrix is predominately comprised of dry-mixed conifer forest that is the primary target for fuels reduction via mechanical treatments or resource objective fire. However, FS-matrix is also a source of exposure to communities and where wildland urban interface and timber values are concentrated, which can also explain the avoidance results 42 .…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 96%

Effects of ownership patterns on cross-boundary wildfires

Barros

Day

Spies

et al. 2021

Sci Rep

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Understanding ownership effects on large wildfires is a precursor to the development of risk governance strategies that better protect people and property and restore fire-adapted ecosystems. We analyzed wildfire events in the Pacific Northwest from 1984 to 2018 to explore how area burned responded to ownership, asking whether particular ownerships burned disproportionately more or less, and whether these patterns varied by forest and grass/shrub vegetation types. While many individual fires showed indifference to property lines, taken as a whole, we found patterns of disproportionate burning for both forest and grass/shrub fires. We found that forest fires avoided ownerships with a concentration of highly valued resources—burning less than expected in managed US Forest Service forested lands, private non-industrial, private industrial, and state lands—suggesting the enforcement of strong fire protection policies. US Forest Service wilderness was the only ownership classification that burned more than expected which may result from the management of natural ignitions for resource objectives, its remoteness or both. Results from this study are relevant to inform perspectives on land management among public and private entities, which may share boundaries but not fire management goals, and support effective cross-boundary collaboration and shared stewardship across all-lands.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 96%

Effects of ownership patterns on cross-boundary wildfires

Barros

Day

Spies

et al. 2021

Sci Rep

Self Cite

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“…Nonetheless, future efforts should be oriented toward determining the tipping points between carbon benefits and losses from a broader range of forest management actions, which should provide better and more accurate information to compute realistic compensations [95]. However, optimal solutions may compete with other existing objectives (e.g., reducing carbon emissions vs. reducing wildfire transmission to communities), but the trade-off analysis allows assessing treatment co-location opportunities (i.e., forest stands where treatments can meet multiple goals) on vast landscapes [96,97]. Ultimately, treatment prioritization works would provide a valuable set of treatment solutions that would require implementing a risk assessment framework to evaluate cost-efficiency.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Fostering Carbon Credits to Finance Wildfire Risk Reduction Forest Management in Mediterranean Landscapes

Alcasena

Rodrígues

Gelabert

et al. 2021

Land

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Despite the need for preserving the carbon pools in fire-prone southern European landscapes, emission reductions from wildfire risk mitigation are still poorly understood. In this study, we estimated expected carbon emissions and carbon credits from fuel management projects ongoing in Catalonia (Spain). The planning areas encompass about 1000 km2 and represent diverse fire regimes and Mediterranean forest ecosystems. We first modeled the burn probability assuming extreme weather conditions and historical fire ignition patterns. Stand-level wildfire exposure was then coupled with fuel consumption estimates to assess expected carbon emissions. Finally, we estimated treatment cost-efficiency and carbon credits for each fuel management plan. Landscape-scale average emissions ranged between 0.003 and 0.070 T CO2 year−1 ha−1. Fuel treatments in high emission hotspots attained reductions beyond 0.06 T CO2 year−1 per treated ha. Thus, implementing carbon credits could potentially finance up to 14% of the treatment implementation costs in high emission areas. We discuss how stand conditions, fire regimes, and treatment costs determine the treatment cost-efficiency and long-term carbon-sink capacity. Our work may serve as a preliminary step for developing a carbon-credit market and subsidizing wildfire risk management programs in low-revenue Mediterranean forest systems prone to extreme wildfires.

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“…A recent exploration of the Wildland Fire Decision-Support System (WFDSS) reports that the utility of the System to support risk-informed decision-making could be improved by incorporating prefire planning tools such as PODs [23]. Other examples of Forest Service initiatives that are focused on improving decision-making and coordination include the Shared Stewardship Strategy [24], Scenario Investment Planning [25], the National Cohesive Wildland Fire Management Strategy [26], and the Wildfire Risk to Communities mapping effort [20]. It remains to be seen if and how these initiatives will be integrated, but it is worth noting a general trend towards improving strategic decision-making based on improved coordination, communication, and integration of science and data analytics.…”

Section: Exceedance Probability Curvesmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Qualitative Study on the US Forest Service’s Risk Management Assistance Efforts to Improve Wildfire Decision-Making

Schultz

Miller

Greiner

et al. 2021

Forests

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To support improved wildfire incident decision-making, in 2017 the US Forest Service (Forest Service) implemented risk-informed tools and processes, together known as Risk Management Assistance (RMA). The Forest Service is developing tools such as RMA to improve wildfire decision-making and implements these tools in complex organizational environments. We assessed the perceived value of RMA and factors that affected its use to inform the literature on decision support for fire management. We sought to answer two questions: (1) What was the perceived value of RMA for line officers who received it?; and (2) What factors affected how RMA was received and used during wildland fire events? We conducted a qualitative study involving semi-structured interviews with decision-makers to understand the contextualized and interrelated factors that affect wildfire decision-making and the uptake of a decision-support intervention such as RMA. We used a thematic coding process to analyze our data according to our questions. RMA increased line officers’ ability to communicate the rationale underlying their decisions more clearly and transparently to their colleagues and partners. Our interviewees generally said that RMA data analytics were valuable but did not lead to changes in their decisions. Line officer personality, pre-season exposure to RMA, local political dynamics and conditions, and decision biases affected the use of RMA. Our findings reveal the complexities of embracing risk management, not only in the context of US federal fire management, but also in other similar emergency management contexts. Attention will need to be paid to existing decision biases, integration of risk management approaches in the interagency context, and the importance of knowledge brokers to connect across internal organizational groups. Our findings contribute to the literature on managing change in public organizations, specifically in emergency decision-making contexts such as fire management.

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Tradeoffs between US national forest harvest targets and fuel management to reduce wildfire transmission to the wildland urban interface

Cited by 41 publications

References 51 publications

Effects of ownership patterns on cross-boundary wildfires

Effects of ownership patterns on cross-boundary wildfires

Fostering Carbon Credits to Finance Wildfire Risk Reduction Forest Management in Mediterranean Landscapes

A Qualitative Study on the US Forest Service’s Risk Management Assistance Efforts to Improve Wildfire Decision-Making

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