A Qualitative Study on the US Forest Service’s Risk Management Assistance Efforts to Improve Wildfire Decision-Making

Abstract

To support improved wildfire incident decision-making, in 2017 the US Forest Service (Forest Service) implemented risk-informed tools and processes, together known as Risk Management Assistance (RMA). The Forest Service is developing tools such as RMA to improve wildfire decision-making and implements these tools in complex organizational environments. We assessed the perceived value of RMA and factors that affected its use to inform the literature on decision support for fire management. We sought to answer two questions: (1) What was the perceived value of RMA for line officers who received it?; and (2) What factors affected how RMA was received and used during wildland fire events? We conducted a qualitative study involving semi-structured interviews with decision-makers to understand the contextualized and interrelated factors that affect wildfire decision-making and the uptake of a decision-support intervention such as RMA. We used a thematic coding process to analyze our data according to our questions. RMA increased line officers’ ability to communicate the rationale underlying their decisions more clearly and transparently to their colleagues and partners. Our interviewees generally said that RMA data analytics were valuable but did not lead to changes in their decisions. Line officer personality, pre-season exposure to RMA, local political dynamics and conditions, and decision biases affected the use of RMA. Our findings reveal the complexities of embracing risk management, not only in the context of US federal fire management, but also in other similar emergency management contexts. Attention will need to be paid to existing decision biases, integration of risk management approaches in the interagency context, and the importance of knowledge brokers to connect across internal organizational groups. Our findings contribute to the literature on managing change in public organizations, specifically in emergency decision-making contexts such as fire management.

Decision Support System Development of Wildland Fire: A Systematic Mapping

“…A recent study on the use of technology tools to improve decision-making in wildfires at the U.S. Forest Service increased the ability of line officers to communicate their decisions more clearly and transparently to their colleagues and partners [34]. The system analyzed was Risk Management Assistance (RMA).…”

Is This Flight Necessary? The Aviation Use Summary (AUS): A Framework for Strategic, Risk-Informed Aviation Decision Support

“…Over the past several years, the USFS has recognized and embraced risk management with its attendant emphases on leveraging best available information, addressing uncertainty and risk within decision-making processes, and measuring and enhancing performance. Risk management considers the inherent uncertainty within the complex wildfire management system while exploring multiple options, weighing trade-offs, and documenting reasons for selecting specific courses of action [32][33][34][35][36]. The Agency's Risk Management Assistance (RMA) efforts demonstrate this commitment [35,37] (https: //wfmrda.nwcg.gov/rma (accessed on 21 May 2021)), as multiple national leaders, Agency Administrators (AAs), scientists, risk experts, fire behavior specialists, and analysts have committed to developing and demonstrating methods for improved strategic decision and risk management in wildfire preparedness and response [38][39][40].…”

“…Risk management considers the inherent uncertainty within the complex wildfire management system while exploring multiple options, weighing trade-offs, and documenting reasons for selecting specific courses of action [32][33][34][35][36]. The Agency's Risk Management Assistance (RMA) efforts demonstrate this commitment [35,37] (https: //wfmrda.nwcg.gov/rma (accessed on 21 May 2021)), as multiple national leaders, Agency Administrators (AAs), scientists, risk experts, fire behavior specialists, and analysts have committed to developing and demonstrating methods for improved strategic decision and risk management in wildfire preparedness and response [38][39][40]. RMA analytics and products provide AAs and Incident Commanders (ICs) with a broader toolset for objective comparison of the relative tradeoffs of alternative response strategies, including firefighter exposure, risk to highly valued resources and assets, and opportunities for beneficial fire [32,40,41].…”

“…Supporting risk-informed decision making (RIDM) related to aviation use is an important component of this work. (Readers interested in learning more about RMA and its connections to a broader body of work intending to better infuse risk management principles and practices into wildfire planning and decision making are encouraged to read Schultz et al 2021 [35]; Thompson et al 2019 [41], 2016 [44]; and Taber et al 2013 [40].) Strategic scale aviation decision support systems (DSS) help direct the use of scarce, high-risk assets to those places where the effectiveness of suppression actions or the consequences of fire damages warrant engagement.…”

Strategic Wildfire Response Decision Support and the Risk Management Assistance Program

“…The increasing complexity and uncertainty of the socio-ecological fire environment are driven by multiple factors, including climate change [4,5], changing patterns of human settlement (e.g., housing expansion in the United States [6,7], rural abandonment in Mediterranean Europe [8,9]), and increased fuel loading due to a history of suppression [10][11][12]. Within the United States, there is growing recognition that systemic changes in how the wildland fire system plans for and manages fires are necessary to alter risk trajectories [2,3,[13][14][15][16].…”