Tracks to Change or Mixed Signals? A Review of the Anglo-Saxon Literature on the Economic and Spatial Impacts of High-Speed Rail

Abstract

The economic development and spatial impacts of high-speed rail (HSR) are quite varied and mixed. Studies of economic impacts of HSR fall into two categories: predictions and empirical observations. We first review studies that examine predicted HSR impacts related to job growth, real estate development, and other economic effects. These are followed by studies examining observed effects of realized projects using the same categories. Several patterns emerge. Predictive studies are largely optimistic of the rail's positive effects. On the other hand, observational studies tend to identify both benefits and shortfalls. Yet, neither of these patterns are universal and depend on a number of other factors. One consistent pattern is that gains associated with HSR appear to be stronger in first-tier cities. Nevertheless, certain small towns and second-tier cities have undergone noteworthy transformations as a result of HSR, especially where the public sector has actively pursued new investment.

Impacts of High-Speed Rail on Metropolitan Integration: An Examination of London, Madrid and Paris

“…To sum up, the HSR effects are highly variable (Sands 1993), and additional research is necessary to better understand the factors that contribute to positive territorial and urban development patterns (Stanke 2009;Loukaitou-Sideris et al 2013). Moreover, in order to fully understand the implications of HSR stations, the analysis should consider different spatial scales and the interrelation between them: the station surroundings, the local scale, and the regional/national scale.…”

“…But such impacts can vary from one city to the other (Loukaitou-Sideris et al 2013) depending on a station-city's: (a) location in relation to other cities; (b) economic features and trajectory; (c) connectivity to main transport corridors and nodes; (d) type of HSR network and location in it; and (e) station location (central or peripheral) within each city .…”

Price Elasticity of Demand on the High-Speed Rail Lines of Spain: Impact of the New Pricing Scheme

“…Generally speaking, studies about their effects can be divided between ex-ante and ex-post interventions. The first group of studies are quite optimistic whereas the second group identifies benefits and costs in a more realistic manner (11). The gains due to HSR are larger in the first cities to be connected, but also some small cities have experienced important transformations, particularly where additional investments from the public sector were implemented.…”

Intercity Passenger Rails: Facilitating the Spatial Spillover Effects of Population and Employment Growth in the United States, 2000–2010

“…However, the benefits are not universal and equally distributed. Predictive and observational studies show that large industrialized cities receive more benefits than small and intermediate cities (Loukaitou-Sideris et al, 2013). These large cities observe growth in employment, the real estate market, and tourism.…”

“…The experiences of many countries in Europe and Asia show that passenger rails exert a positive impact on urban development and redevelopment (Okada, 1994), as they are helpful in increasing employment (Loukaitou-Sideris et al, 2013; Topalovic et al, 2012), enhancing economic productivity (Ryder, 2012), boosting real estate markets (Loukaitou-Sideris et al, 2013), and increasing tourism (Loukaitou-Sideris et al, 2013; Okada, 1994; Ryder, 2012). In 2009, the United States government recognized the economic vitality of passenger rails and considered the expansion and development of a passenger rail system as a stimulus to the macro economy (Goetz, 2012; Grunwald, 2010; Hurst, 2014).…”