Abstract. Hurricanes commonly disturb and damage tropical forests. Hurricane frequency
and intensity are predicted to change under the changing climate. The
short-term impacts of hurricane disturbances to tropical forests have been
widely studied, but the long-term impacts are rarely investigated. Modeling
is critical to investigate the potential response of forests to future
disturbances, particularly if the nature of the disturbances is changing
with climate. Unfortunately, existing models of forest dynamics are not
presently able to account for hurricane disturbances. Therefore, we
implement the Hurricane Disturbance in the Ecosystem Demography model (ED2)
(ED2-HuDi). The hurricane disturbance includes hurricane-induced immediate
mortality and subsequent recovery modules. The parameterizations are based
on observations at the Bisley Experimental Watersheds (BEW) in the Luquillo
Experimental Forest in Puerto Rico. We add one new plant functional type
(PFT) to the model – Palm, as palms cannot be categorized into one of the
current existing PFTs and are known to be an abundant component of tropical
forests worldwide. The model is calibrated with observations at BEW using
the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) approach. The
optimal simulation obtained from GLUE has a mean relative error of −21 %,
−12 %, and −15 % for stem density, basal area, and aboveground biomass,
respectively. The optimal simulation also agrees well with the observation
in terms of PFT composition (+1 %, −8 %, −2 %, and +9 %
differences in the percentages of “Early”, “Mid”, “Late”, and “Palm” PFTs,
respectively) and size structure of the forest (+0.8 % differences in
the percentage of large stems). Lastly, using the optimal parameter set, we
study the impact of forest initial condition on the recovery of the forest
from a single hurricane disturbance. The results indicate that, compared to
a no-hurricane scenario, a single hurricane disturbance has little impact on
forest structure (+1 % change in the percentage of large stems) and
composition (<1 % change in the percentage of each of the four
PFTs) but leads to 5 % higher aboveground biomass after 80 years of
succession. The assumption of a less severe hurricane disturbance leads to a
4 % increase in aboveground biomass.