Tracking a tropical cyclone through WRF–ARW simulation and sensitivity of model physics

Islam, Tanvir; Srivastava, Prashant K.; Rico‐Ramirez, Miguel A.; Dai, Qiang; Gupta, Manika; Singh, Sudhir Kumar

doi:10.1007/s11069-014-1494-8

Cited by 69 publications

(51 citation statements)

References 63 publications

(52 reference statements)

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“…Many studies have proved the use of EO data namely groundwater [27,46,48,51,52], river water quality [55], coastal water [22], lake and wetlands [5,47,53,59,60], land use/land cover mapping [45,46,48,50,51], land use change trajectories [56], land use/land cover modeling [28,49], urban land use dynamics [4], hydrological modeling [31], forest mapping [44], cyclone tracking [16], soil characterization [37], climate change [54], slope estimation [57], landscape ecology [47,53], ocean studies [35,36] and watershed management [67], watershed prioritization [68]. GIS processing has become a critical step in hydrologic modeling since it contributes to generate model parameters in a spatially distributed manner.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimation of Surface Runoff from Semi-arid Ungauged Agricultural Watershed Using SCS-CN Method and Earth Observation Data Sets

Rawat

Singh

2017

Water Conserv Sci Eng

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In the present study, Soil Conservation ServiceCurve Number (SCS-CN) method, Earth Observation (EO) data sets and Geographic Information System (GIS) have been used in order to estimate the surface runoff from Jhagrabaria an agricultural watershed of Allahabad district, Uttar Pradesh (India). LANDSAT-7ETM+, NOAA data and hydrologic soil groups have been used to prepare land use/land cover, rainfall and soil map. The traditional SCS-CN method for calculating the composite CN is very tedious and time demanding process of the hydrologic modeling. Therefore, GIS is now being used in combination with the SCS-CN method. The outcome of work showed 79.35 (CN II ) of normal condition, of dry condition 61.76 (CN I ) and of wet condition 89.84 (CN III ), respectively. This investigation outline that ungauged watershed exhibits an annual average of 14 years runoff volume as 3.58 × 10 6 m 3 from an average annual rainfall of 14 years 110.77 cm and the average annual surface runoff of 14 years was 23.83 cm and annual average runoff coefficient of 14 years was 0.22. The correlation analysis suggests that the strong correlation as R 2 (0.91) was observed between satellite drive rainfall and runoff from SCS-CN method. The developed rainfall-runoff model for the region will be useful to understand the watershed and its runoff flow characteristics.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimation of Surface Runoff from Semi-arid Ungauged Agricultural Watershed Using SCS-CN Method and Earth Observation Data Sets

Rawat

Singh

2017

Water Conserv Sci Eng

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“…Typhoon Haiyan was characterized by its rapid development, and the mechanisms behind such weather events are not yet fully understood [For example, see Kowch and Emanuel (2015)]. Furthermore, considering the difficulty in simulating strong typhoons in the WRF (Eg, Islam et al 2014 andMori et al 2014), this result appears to be within what could be expected by the model. Anomalies in the value of the MSLP can be seen between 18:00 UTC 7 and 06:00 UTC 8, as the eye of Fig.…”

Section: Boundary Conditions Under Global Warming Scenariosmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, other authors have concluded that typhoons' central pressure at the initial atmospheric boundary in WRF shows some discrepancy with that of an actual typhoon, particularly for the case of unusually strong typhoons (e.g., Tasnim et al 2014). To overcome such problems, Islam et al (2014) changed the numerical schemes to obtain better results for the simulation of typhoon Haiyan. Alternatively, in order to solve the initial underestimation of the vortex, many studies have proposed a scheme to reconstruct it artificially.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future typhoon and storm surges under different global warming scenarios: case study of typhoon Haiyan (2013)

et al. 2016

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The present work evaluates potential future typhoon and storm surges around the islands of Samar and Leyte in the Philippines taking into account monthly mean sea surface temperatures, atmospheric air temperature, and relative humidity (hereafter, SST, AAT, and RH) from MIROC5 according to four scenarios proposed by IPCC AR5. Supertyphoon Haiyan (2013), which caused catastrophic damage to coastal areas in the Philippines due to its high winds and storm surge, was used as the case study storm given that it was one of the tropical cyclones recorded in modern history. In this study, the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting Model (ARW-WRF) is used to estimate the characteristics of both the present-day Haiyan and a typhoon with a similar return period under the climate condition of the year 2100. The unstructured, Finite Volume Community Ocean Model (FVCOM) was used to estimate both the present and potential future storm surges. The research has two main focuses. First, both the historical event and its storm surge are simulated and contrasted with field measurements of the storm surge height in order to prove the accuracy of the model. Second, the future typhoon and storm surge are estimated using the monthly mean value differences in SST, AAT, and RH from MIROC5 between 2011-2020 and 2091-2100 for the different scenarios. The & Ryota Nakamura characteristics of the simulated typhoon route and storm surge heights agree well with those of the best track data and field measurements. The numerical results of the future typhoon show that, if climate change is considered to only increase SST, its intensity and storm surge will be larger than under the present climate. The minimum sea-level pressure (hereafter, MSLP) of the future typhoon under scenario RCP 8.5 would be about 21 hPa lower and the storm surge 2.7 m higher than in the present climate. However, if SST, AAT, and RH are also taken into account, then the increase in typhoon intensity will not be as marked as if only SST is considered, with the MSLP under RCP 8.5 decreasing only by 13 hPa and the storm surge increasing by 0.7 m. The results of the present research thus suggest that while increases in SST can contribute to the intensification of future typhoons, increases in AAT and RH will somehow moderate this effect. Nevertheless, all scenarios considered point out to stronger typhoons and higher storm surges, clearly highlighting the perils posed by future climate change.

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“…Many studies over recent years have employed LAMs for simulation and forecasting of tropical cyclones (Deshpande et al, 2010;Mohanty et al, 2010;Rakesh and Goswami, 2011;Chandrasekar and Balaji, 2012;Cha and Wang, 2013;Chaudhuri et al, 2015;Islam et al, 2015;Osuri et al, 2017). However, introduction of a limited domain necessarily restricts the spectrum of scales and hence the scale interaction (Wang, 2001).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Comparative evaluation of the skill of a global circulation model and a limited area model in simulating tropical cyclones in the north Indian Ocean

Mohapatra

Rakesh

Mohanty

et al. 2018

Meteorological Applications

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Considerable improvement has taken place in forecasting tropical cyclones at 24–48 hr leads; however, improving the accuracy of tropical cyclone forecasts at longer leads is still a major scientific challenge. The major bottleneck in accurate tropical cyclone forecasts using limited area models (LAMs) comes from the use of artificial lateral boundary conditions, especially at longer leads. Although global circulation models (GCMs) still cannot match the horizontal resolution that can be implemented in a LAM over a smaller domain, it is possible that better representation of scales and thus scale interactions in a global domain can lead to better simulation of tropical cyclones with a GCM even with relatively coarser resolution. This hypothesis is tested in the present work with a GCM and a LAM configuration. Thirty cyclones over the north Indian Ocean that represent different seasons and intensities during 1999–2012 are considered. Analysis of forecast skills at three leads (24 hr, 48 hr and 96 hr) show that while the LAM has better skill compared to the GCM at shorter leads (<48 hr), the GCM has significantly higher skill at longer leads (96 hr). The two configurations are found to exhibit somewhat complementary skills in terms of forecast lead and the severity of the cyclones. Therefore, it is suggested that a methodology combining both LAMs and GCMs can provide more reliable forecasts.

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Tracking a tropical cyclone through WRF–ARW simulation and sensitivity of model physics

Cited by 69 publications

References 63 publications

Estimation of Surface Runoff from Semi-arid Ungauged Agricultural Watershed Using SCS-CN Method and Earth Observation Data Sets

Estimation of Surface Runoff from Semi-arid Ungauged Agricultural Watershed Using SCS-CN Method and Earth Observation Data Sets

Future typhoon and storm surges under different global warming scenarios: case study of typhoon Haiyan (2013)

Comparative evaluation of the skill of a global circulation model and a limited area model in simulating tropical cyclones in the north Indian Ocean

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