Future typhoon and storm surges under different global warming scenarios: case study of typhoon Haiyan (2013)

Abstract

The present work evaluates potential future typhoon and storm surges around the islands of Samar and Leyte in the Philippines taking into account monthly mean sea surface temperatures, atmospheric air temperature, and relative humidity (hereafter, SST, AAT, and RH) from MIROC5 according to four scenarios proposed by IPCC AR5. Supertyphoon Haiyan (2013), which caused catastrophic damage to coastal areas in the Philippines due to its high winds and storm surge, was used as the case study storm given that it was one of the tropical cyclones recorded in modern history. In this study, the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting Model (ARW-WRF) is used to estimate the characteristics of both the present-day Haiyan and a typhoon with a similar return period under the climate condition of the year 2100. The unstructured, Finite Volume Community Ocean Model (FVCOM) was used to estimate both the present and potential future storm surges. The research has two main focuses. First, both the historical event and its storm surge are simulated and contrasted with field measurements of the storm surge height in order to prove the accuracy of the model. Second, the future typhoon and storm surge are estimated using the monthly mean value differences in SST, AAT, and RH from MIROC5 between 2011-2020 and 2091-2100 for the different scenarios. The & Ryota Nakamura characteristics of the simulated typhoon route and storm surge heights agree well with those of the best track data and field measurements. The numerical results of the future typhoon show that, if climate change is considered to only increase SST, its intensity and storm surge will be larger than under the present climate. The minimum sea-level pressure (hereafter, MSLP) of the future typhoon under scenario RCP 8.5 would be about 21 hPa lower and the storm surge 2.7 m higher than in the present climate. However, if SST, AAT, and RH are also taken into account, then the increase in typhoon intensity will not be as marked as if only SST is considered, with the MSLP under RCP 8.5 decreasing only by 13 hPa and the storm surge increasing by 0.7 m. The results of the present research thus suggest that while increases in SST can contribute to the intensification of future typhoons, increases in AAT and RH will somehow moderate this effect. Nevertheless, all scenarios considered point out to stronger typhoons and higher storm surges, clearly highlighting the perils posed by future climate change.

Air‐sea fluxes for Hurricane Patricia (2015): Comparison with supertyphoon Haiyan (2013) and under different ENSO conditions

“…If using the maximum wind speed to estimate cyclone's kinetic energy at peak to a first order, the corresponding square of maximum wind speed of a ''category 6'' (160-185 knots) TC would be 131-175% higher than a ''category 5'' TC of 140 knots.) It is intriguing to compare the situation for these two ''Category 6'' TCs Lander et al, 2014;Comiso et al, 2015;Shu et al, 2015;Wada, 2015;Foltz and Balaguru, 2016;Kimberlain et al, 2016;Nakamura et al, 2016;Takagi et al, 2016;Fu et al, 2017;Rogers et al, 2017] over the two sides of the Pacific basin, i.e. Hurricane Patricia to the Mexico versus suppertyphoon Haiyan to the Phillippines.…”

Rethinking the Limits of Climate Change Adaptation

“…However, as Batasan and Ubay (see picture on page 7), until recently, have been using coral stones as filling materials, examining the impact of rampant coral mining on the long-term physical viability of the islands is needed. A survey of a mined reef section in Batasan revealed a live hard coral cover of less than 10%, with a further 30% of dead coral with algae, indicating that the area is already severely degraded (Jamero et al 2017 Also, extreme events such as typhoons and droughts often are perceived to constitute a limit of adaptation, potentially driving mass migration even in the short term (Nakamura et al 2016, Fletcher and Richmond 2010, Yamamoto and Esteban 2014. However, this study found that the island communities of Tubigon have remained in their homes despite experiencing several typhoons since the 2013 earthquake, and a 4-month long dry spell in 2016.…”

Shoreline Response to a Sequence of Typhoon and Monsoon Events

“…Among the 10 typhoons landing in Vietnam in 2013, Cat. 5 Haiyan in early November turned into one of the world strongest recorded tropical cyclones [23].…”