Towards understanding the global and regional climatic impacts of Modoki magnitude

Dogar, Muhammad Mubashar; Kucharski, Fred; Sato, Toru; Mehmood, Shahbaz; Ali, Shaukat; Gong, Zhiqiang; Das, Debesh K.; Arraut, Joséfina Moraes

doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2018.10.004

Cited by 19 publications

(12 citation statements)

References 81 publications

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“…They concluded that both the tropical and high‐latitude eruptions affect the ITCZ and hence precipitation patterns. Similarly, ENSO also has a larger impact over the Indian Ocean and the Atlantic Ocean through walker circulation such that positive phase of ENSO weakens Indian and African monsoon (Dogar et al, ; Dogar, Kucharski, & Azharuddin, ; Roxy et al, ). The ideal situation would be to see how both the ENSO and volcanic eruptions affect monsoon climate countries, especially the MEA and South Asia region.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This ENSO‐induced warming and drying over the tropical rain belt region of MEA and South Asia is attributed to ENSO‐induced variation in zonal and meridional circulation changes. That in turn produces weak meridional temperature gradient between ocean and inland continents resulting in less amount of cross‐equatorial moisture transport from ocean toward inland areas (see, e.g., Shukla, ; Ashok et al, , 2007; Roxy et al, ; Dogar, Kucharski, & Azharuddin, ; Dogar et al, ). Precipitation decrease over the tropical region following ENSO events reaches up to −0.5 mm/day both in the model and observations.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…It has been discussed in numerous studies that explosive volcanic eruption provides suitable conditions that may trigger ENSO phenomenon (Emile‐Geay et al, ; Liu et al, ; Liu et al, ; Maher et al, ; Ohba et al, ; Predybaylo et al, ). Moreover, studies have also indicated that ENSO impacts are very important, especially in the monsoon regions (Ashok et al, , ; Azharuddin & Dogar, ; Dogar et al, ; Dogar et al, ; Shukla, ). By employing global climate model simulations (Almazroui et al, ) and observational/reanalysis products, it has been examined that ENSO teleconnection produces strong impact over the Arabian Peninsula summer rainfall (Abid et al, ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The ENSO strongly impacts the Hadley cell (HC), especially the upward branch of HC that is strongly coupled to the monsoon system. It has been shown that the positive phase of ENSO produces weakening to African, Middle Eastern, and South Asian summer monsoon system, whereas the reverse is generally observed for La Niña phase (Dogar, Kucharski, & Azharuddin, ; Dogar et al, ; Roxy et al, ). Earlier studies have also emphasized that the ENSO and volcanic forcing (e.g., El Chichón and Pinatubo) effectively modulate the temperature and precipitation patterns across the globe, especially in the tropics (Gu & Adler, ; Gu & Adler, ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Regional Climate Response of Middle Eastern, African, and South Asian Monsoon Regions to Explosive Volcanism and ENSO Forcing

Dogar

Sato

2019

JGR Atmospheres

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It is well observed that the monsoon climate experiences substantial climatic changes following explosive volcanism. Likewise, previous studies show that the monsoon climate regimes, especially, the African and South Asian tropical regions, are adversely affected by El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. Hence, studying the sensitivity of the monsoon regions to the effect of these forcing factors, that is, explosive volcanism and volcanic‐induced ENSO forcing, is essential for better understanding the driving mechanism and climate variability in these regions. Using observations and a high resolution atmospheric model, effectively at 50‐ and 25‐km grid spacing, this study shows that ENSO and tropical eruptions together weaken the upward branch of Northern Hemisphere (NH) Hadley cell, that is, Intertropical Convergence Zone. This results in a significant decrease of monsoonal precipitation, suggesting severe drought conditions over the NH tropical rain belt regions. The volcanic‐induced direct radiative cooling and associated land‐sea thermal contrast result in significant warming and drying due to the reduction of clouds over the monsoon regions in boreal summer. The posteruption ENSO circulation also results in warming and drying over NH tropical rain belt regions. This study confirms that the monsoon climate regime responds vigorously to posteruption direct radiative and indirect circulation impacts caused by volcanic‐induced ENSO forcing. Hence, quantification of magnitude and spatial pattern of these postvolcanic direct and indirect climatic responses is important for better understanding of climate variability and changes in Asian and African monsoon regions.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Regional Climate Response of Middle Eastern, African, and South Asian Monsoon Regions to Explosive Volcanism and ENSO Forcing

Dogar

Sato

2019

JGR Atmospheres

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“…1 | INTRODUCTION Globally, regional hydrological processes such as droughts and floods are associated with variations in the large-scale coupled oceanic-atmospheric circulation patterns (Philipp et al, 2007;Brandimarte et al, 2011;Willems, 2013;Qiu et al, 2014;Lee and Julien, 2016;Alizadeh-Choobari, 2017;Babolcsai and Hirsch, 2018;Dogar et al, 2018). The teleconnections from the leading modes of climate variability, such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Dipole Mode Index (DMI), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), affect the spatial and temporal distribution of precipitation globally, leading to associated hydrological extremes (e.g.…”

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confidence: 99%

Contrasting features of hydroclimatic teleconnections and the predictability of seasonal rainfall over east and west Japan

Maity

Chanda

Dutta

et al. 2020

Meteorological Applications

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Hydroclimatic teleconnections between global sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly fields and monthly rainfall over east and west Japan (divided along 138° E longitude) are identified for summer (June–August) and winter (December–February) using the concept of global climate pattern (GCP). The analysis indicates that the hydroclimatic teleconnections over both regions vary at both intra‐ and inter‐seasonal time scales. In addition, the teleconnections over the two regions have differing origins. The teleconnection features associated with rainfall anomalies over west Japan have origins in the tropical Pacific and Indian oceans, whereas those over east Japan are associated with high‐latitude SST anomalies. The early summer (winter) rainfall over west Japan is linked to the El Niño Modoki (La Niña Modoki) phenomena, whereas the early summer and winter rainfall anomalies over east Japan are associated with the SST anomaly over the eastern subtropical Pacific and South Pacific oceans, respectively. Having identified the teleconnections, prediction model approaches—a machine‐learning approach, namely support vector regression (SVR), and a hybrid graphical modelling/C‐Vine copula (GM‐Copula)—were developed to forecast the rainfall over both east and west Japan. The predictors were derived from the monthly SST anomalies at different lags (1–6 months), and whereas the hidden, nonlinear relationship was well captured by the SVR approach, the complex association was decidedly better captured by the GM‐Copula approach. Hence, it is recommended for forecasting the rainfall over east and west Japan.

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Impact of the September Silk Road Pattern on the South China Sea summer monsoon withdrawal

Chen

et al. 2020

Intl Journal of Climatology

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The Silk Road Pattern (SRP) is the dominant teleconnection in the upper troposphere and is closely linked to the Asian summer monsoon in both India and subtropical East Asia. This study reveals a close interannual relationship between the SRP in September and the South China Sea (SCS) summer monsoon (SCSSM) withdrawal. During positive phases of the September SRP (characterized by negative geopotential height anomalies over eastern Europe and central China and positive geopotential height anomalies over western Europe, western and central Asia, and Northeast Asia), withdrawal of the SCSSM tends to be later than normal. The September SRP could impact the SCSSM withdrawal via modulating atmospheric circulation anomalies over the SCS. In particular, the notable low-level cyclonic anomaly over central China related to the positive phase of the September SRP induces significant southwesterly wind anomalies over the northern SCS, which favour a late withdrawal of the SCSSM. This study suggests that besides the tropical factors that have been identified by previous studies, the climate systems over mid-latitudes may also play an important role in contributing to interannual variability of the SCSSM withdrawal.

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Towards understanding the global and regional climatic impacts of Modoki magnitude

Cited by 19 publications

References 81 publications

Regional Climate Response of Middle Eastern, African, and South Asian Monsoon Regions to Explosive Volcanism and ENSO Forcing

Regional Climate Response of Middle Eastern, African, and South Asian Monsoon Regions to Explosive Volcanism and ENSO Forcing

Contrasting features of hydroclimatic teleconnections and the predictability of seasonal rainfall over east and west Japan

Impact of the September Silk Road Pattern on the South China Sea summer monsoon withdrawal

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