Towards integrated assessments of water risks in deglaciating mountain areas: water scarcity and GLOF risk in the Peruvian Andes

Abstract

Different water related risks such as lake outburst floods and water scarcity are typically assessed by separate methods and often by separate research communities. However, in a local context such as in mountain regions of the developing world different water risks are intertwined and shaped by multi-dimensional natural and socio-economic drivers. Progressing glacier melt and the associated growing number of lakes rises the threat of glacier lake outburst floods (GLOFs); at the same time declining melt water supply changes the hydrological regime, resulting in changing water availability, especially during dry seasons. Here, we address this challenge by integratively assessing water scarcity and GLOF risks and their interactions for two study sites in glacierized catchments in the Cordillera Blanca and Urubamba in the Peruvian Andes. We used hydrological modelling, GLOF flow path modelling, and interviews with local people and technical experts to assess the hazard and risks of water scarcity and GLOFs. We incorporate perspectives of people living in those areas in order to gain a more comprehensive view on risks. While metrics of flood and water scarcity hazards are difficult to compare, we found insightful results using a comparative analysis of elements at risk from different water related hazards with different probabilities of occurrence. Furthermore, our study shows that considering the diverse local perspectives on risks as well as the social, cultural, economic and political context is essential to more successful and sustainable disaster risk reduction, climate change adaptation and integrated water management.

Progress and challenges in glacial lake outburst flood research (2017–2021): a research community perspective

“…Researchers increasingly recognize that local communities should be involved in GLOF studies, climate adaptation, and Carey et al, 2012;Drenkhan et al, 2019;Motschmann et al, 2020b) -Increased exposure to GLOFs across some regions in past decades due to tourism (e.g. Iceland and Peru; Matti et al, 2022a) as well as rapid and often unregulated development in GLOF-prone areas (e.g.…”

“…Proposed ways forward -Interdisciplinary cooperation in GLOF research, consideration of diverse dimensions and drivers of GLOF risk beyond traditional GLOF hazard studies (see Sect. 4.5), connecting natural and social science communities (see Huggel et al, 2020;Carey et al, 2021;Drenkhan et al, 2019;Motschmann et al, 2020b) -Combine disaster risk and water management under a framework of prospective lake water management with adaptive disaster risk planning considering synergies and conflicts of GLOF risk reduction measures with human water use (Haeberli and Drenkhan, 2022;Motschmann et al, 2020b) -Work with local communities, decision-makers and stakeholders and their involvement in the GLOF risk analysis process from the beginning (knowledge co-production, experience exchange, bottom-up and community-centred approaches; see Thompson et al, 2020;Matti and Ögmundardóttir, 2021;Haeberli and Drenkhan, 2022;and Sect. 4.6) -Use a consensus-based approach to identify high-priority lakes for risk management, drawing upon the full range of published GLOF hazard and risk studies in any given region (e.g.…”

Una aproximación hacia la seguridad hídrica en los Andes tropicales: desafíos y perspectivas

“…Esta situación amenaza la disponibilidad de agua potable para los sistemas socioecológicos (Vuille et al, 2018). Esto incluye una cantidad de agua no adecuada, ya sea por una escorrentía muy baja o excesiva (Motschmann et al, 2020), o por el incremento de la acidificación, debido al drenaje ácido de roca o por la contaminación de metales pesados, en cuencas que están en proceso de desglaciación y donde sus sedimentos empiezan a quedar expuestos (Santofimia et al, 2017).…”

Looking beyond glaciers to understand mountain water security

“…However, the assessment of each component is often limited by siloed definitions (e.g. hazards from glacier shrinkage, drought or flood) 54 , multiple, overlapping and contested concepts (e.g. risks and vulnerabilities) 55 , and poorly defined metrics (for all components).…”

“…lake outburst floods) and slow-onset (e.g. drought) risk assessments 54,57 . A concerted effort of the most recent Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC analyses risk consistently as 'potential for adverse consequences' 53 to social-ecological systems.…”