Progress and challenges in glacial lake outburst flood research (2017–2021): a research community perspective

Emmer, Adam; Allen, Simon; Carey, Mark; Frey, Holger; Huggel, Christian; Korup, Oliver; Mergili, Martin; Sattar, Ashim; Veh, Georg; Chen, Thomas Y.; Cook, Simon J.; Correas-González, Mariana; Das, Soumik; Moreno, Alberto Díaz; Drenkhan, Fabián; Fischer, Melanie; Immerzeel, Walter W.; Izagirre, Eñaut; Joshi, R. C.; Kougkoulos, Ioannis; Knapp, Riamsara Kuyakanon; Li, Dongfeng; Majeed, Ulfat; Matti, Stephanie; Moulton, Holly; Nick, F. M.; Piroton, Valentine; Rashid, Irfan; Reza, Masoom; Figueiredo, Anderson Ribeiro de; Riveros, Christian; Shrestha, Finu; Shrestha, Milan; Steiner, Jakob; Walker-Crawford, Noah; Yde, Jacob C.

doi:10.5194/nhess-22-3041-2022

Cited by 38 publications

(43 citation statements)

References 160 publications

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“…Information from the internet was verified by cross-checking with multiple other websites and reports. The information gathered likely doesn't include all events due to generally poor documentation of hazard events in the region (Emmer et al, 2022;Shrestha et al, in and Acharya, 2022). We record events that affected high altitude climbers (at peaks above 4500 m a.s.l.)…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Review article: Snow and ice avalanches in high mountain Asia – scientific, local and indigenous knowledge

Acharya

Steiner

Walizada

et al. 2023

Preprint

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Abstract. The cryosphere in high mountain Asia (HMA) not only sustains livelihoods of people residing downstream through its capacity to store water but also holds potential for hazards. One of these hazards, avalanches, so far remains poorly studied as the complex relationship between climate and potential triggers is poorly understood due to lack of long-term observations, inaccessibility, severe weather conditions, and financial and logistic constraints. In this study, available literature was reviewed covering the period from the late 20th century to June 2022 to identify research and societal gaps and propose future directions of research and mitigation strategies. Beyond scientific literature, technical reports, newspapers, social media and other local sources were consulted to compile a comprehensive, open access and version controlled database of avalanche events and their associated impacts. Over 681 avalanches with more than 3131 human fatalities were identified in eight countries of the region. Afghanistan has the highest recorded avalanche fatalities (1057) followed by India (952) and Nepal (508). Additionally, 564 people lost their lives while climbing peaks above 4500 m a.s.l., one third of which were staff employed as guides or porters. This makes it a less deadly hazard than in the less populated European Alps for example, but with a considerably larger number of people affected who did not voluntarily expose themselves to avalanche risk. Although fatalities are significant, and local long-term impacts of avalanches may be considerable, so far, limited holistic adaptation or mitigation measures exist in the region. These measures generally rely on local and indigenous knowledge adapted with modern technologies. Considering the high impact avalanches have in the region we suggest to further develop adaptation measures including hazard zonation maps based on datasets of historic events and modelling efforts. This should however happen acknowledging the already existing knowledge in the region and in close coordination with communities and local government and civil society stakeholders. More research studies should also be attempted to understand trends and drivers of avalanches in the region.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Beyond human life, avalanches can have significant impacts on ecosystems (Bebi et al, 2009), livelihoods (Carey, 2005) and infrastructure. Compared to cryosphere hazards like GLOFs (Emmer et al, 2022), avalanches have however received considerably less attention in literature.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Review article: Snow and ice avalanches in high mountain Asia – scientific, local and indigenous knowledge

Acharya

Steiner

Walizada

et al. 2023

Preprint

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“…In this study, we do not consider the effects of sediment on flow rheology nor the erosion and deposition of sediment along the flow path. Emmer et al (2022) divided the research evolution of GLOF process chain simulations into three stages, and this study belongs to the second stage, i.e., applying tailored physically based simulation tools for each component of the process chain and coupling them at the process boundaries. The third stage is the two-phase (Pudasaini, 2012) and three-phase (Pudasaini and Mergili, 2019) mass flow models and related simulation tools (Mergili et al, 2017;Mergili and Pudasaini, 2021) and the integrated simulations of the entire GLOF process chain in one single simulation step.…”

Section: Modeling Explanationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Lake volume and potential hazards of moraine-dammed glacial lakes – a case study of Bienong Co, southeastern Tibetan Plateau

Duan¹,

Yao²,

Zhang³

et al. 2023

The Cryosphere

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Abstract. The existence of glacial lakes in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau (SETP) is a potential hazard to downstream regions, as the outburst of such lakes has the potential to result in disastrous glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs). In the present study, we conducted a comprehensive investigation of Bienong Co, a moraine-dammed glacial lake in the SETP. First, the lake basin morphology was determined, and the lake volume was estimated, showing that the maximum lake depth is ∼181 m and the lake volume is ∼102.3×106 m3. These scenarios included the possibility of GLOFs being triggered by ice avalanches (Scenarios A1–3) from the mother glacier or by landslides from the lateral moraines (Scenarios B1–3 and C1–3). Avalanche volumes of the nine trigger scenarios were obtained from the Rapid Mass Movement Simulation (RAMMS) modeling results. Next, the Basic Simulation Environment for Computation of Environmental Flow and Natural Hazard Simulation (BASEMENT) model was used to simulate the generation and propagation of the avalanche-induced displacement waves in the lake. With the model, the overtopping flows and erosion on the moraine dam and the subsequent downstream floods were also simulated. The results indicate that the ice avalanche scenario may cause the largest mass volume entering the lake, resulting in a displacement wave up to 25.2 m in amplitude (Scenario A3) near the moraine dam. Landslide scenarios with smaller volumes entering the lake result in smaller displacement waves. Scenarios A1, A2, and A3 result in released water volumes from the lake of 24.1×106, 25.3×106, and 26.4×106 m3, respectively. Corresponding peak discharges at the moraine dam are 4996, 7817, and 13 078 m3 s−1, respectively. These high discharges cause erosion of the moraine dam, resulting in breach widths of 295, 339, and 368 m, respectively, with the generally similar breach depth of approximately 19 m. In landslide scenarios, only overtopping flows generated by Scenarios B3 and C3 cause erosion on the moraine dam, with breach depths of 6.5 and 7.9 m and breach widths of 153 and 169 m, respectively. According to our simulations, GLOFs generated by Scenarios A1–3 all flow through 18 settlements downstream in 20 h, threatening more than half of them. Both Scenarios B3 and C3 produce GLOFs that flow through the first eight settlements downstream in 20 h and have a relatively small impact on them. Comparisons of the area, depth, and volume of glacial lakes for which the bathymetry data are available show that Bienong Co is the deepest known glacial lake with the same surface area on the Tibetan Plateau. This study could provide a new insight into moraine-dammed glacial lakes in the SETP and be a valuable reference for GLOF disaster prevention for the local government.

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Section: Modeling Explanationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Water storage and potential hazard of moraine-dammed glacial lake in maritime glaciation region – A case study of Bienong Co

Duan

Yao

Jin³

et al. 2022

Preprint

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Abstract. The existence of glacial lakes in the Southeastern Tibetan Plateau (SETP) is a potential hazard to the downstream regions, as the failure of some lakes has potential to result in disastrous glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) events of high-magnitude. In the present study, we conducted a comprehensive investigation for Bienong Co, an end moraine-dammed glacial lake in SETP, including its area evolution analysis, basin morphology simulation, water volume estimation, possible outburst triggers analysis, and one- and two-dimensional hydrodynamic simulation. The results show that the area of Bienong Co was 1.15 ± 0.05 km2 in August 2020, which has remained generally stable over the past four decades. However, it exhibits the high risk of GLOFs due to its larger area, the steep and high moraine dam, the close distance to its mother glacier, and the surrounding steep slopes. The lake basin is relatively flat at bottom and steep on both flanks, and the slope near the glacier (16.5°) is steeper than that near the moraine dam (11.3°), with a maximum lake depth of ~181.04 m and a water volume of ~1.02 × 108 m3 in August 2020. Four scenarios of GLOFs based on different breach depths, breach widths and failure times were simulated using the hydrodynamic model of MIKE 11 and MIKE 21 to predict the potential impacts on downstream areas. An extreme-magnitude GLOF would have a catastrophic impact on the downstream region, with most of the settlements, all bridges and majority of Jiazhong Highway along the flow channel being completely submerged. However, in a low-magnitude GLOF, most settlements would be safe or partially inundated. It means that most of the residents in the flow channel of Bienong Co can avoid the damage caused by a low-magnitude GLOF (smaller breach depth of dam). Although three settlements in the downstream area are at risk of being completely submerged in a low-magnitude GLOF event, the flooding arrives late and people have enough time to escape. Finally, the maximum depths of glacial lakes with similar areas were compared for 16 glacial lakes with measured bathymetry data in the Himalayas and Bienong Co in SETP, according to the regional division of maritime and continental zones. The results show that glacial lakes located in maritime regions have larger depths than those in continental regions, and Bienong Co is the deepest glacial lake comparing others in the Himalayas. Therefore, a huge amount of water could be discharged by a potential GLOF event of Bienong Co, creating a serious hazard, which should be taken seriously in the future. Overall, this study of Bienong Co could provide a new understanding of the moraine-dammed glacial lakes in the SETP and a reference of GLOFs to the local government.

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Progress and challenges in glacial lake outburst flood research (2017–2021): a research community perspective

Cited by 38 publications

References 160 publications

Review article: Snow and ice avalanches in high mountain Asia – scientific, local and indigenous knowledge

Review article: Snow and ice avalanches in high mountain Asia – scientific, local and indigenous knowledge

Lake volume and potential hazards of moraine-dammed glacial lakes – a case study of Bienong Co, southeastern Tibetan Plateau

Water storage and potential hazard of moraine-dammed glacial lake in maritime glaciation region – A case study of Bienong Co

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