Towards confidence in numerical modeling of ice stream cycling

Abstract

<p>Some ice sheets and glaciers experience long quiescent periods interspersed with short periods of rapid ice advance, such as the binge-purge-type cycling hypothesized to be associated with Heinrich Events. Modeling ice stream activation/de-activation, however, is numerically challenging given the relatively abrupt changes at surge onset and the high ice velocities. In spite of this, a number of high-profile modeling papers have explored Heinrich events and ice surges, but generally with very limited consideration of numerical aspects. Here we test the ability of the 3D Glacial Systems Model (GSM) and Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM) to simulate binge-purge-type surges and explore the stability of the simulations with respect to relevant numerical and discretization uncertainties. </p><p>We find surge characteristics exhibit a resolution dependency but converge at higher horizontal grid resolutions (order 5 km). In accordance with theoretical and experimental work, our model results suggest that the thermal activation of basal sliding should start below the pressure melting point. A resolution-dependent basal temperature ramp for the thermal activation of basal sliding as well as a subglacial hydrology model can reduce the discrepancies between high and coarse horizontal grid resolutions. Furthermore, incorporating a bed thermal and at least a minimal complexity subglacial hydrology model significantly affects surge characteristics and is, therefore, essential for modeling large-scale ice stream cycling.</p>