Towards an understanding of the latitudinal patterns in thermal tolerance and vulnerability of woody plants under climate warming

Peng, Shijia; Liu, Yunpeng; Lyu, Tong; Li, Yaoqi; Wang, Zhiheng

doi:10.1111/ecog.05582

Cited by 6 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 54 publications

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“…However, as shown in Table 1, from families to genera to species, with the decrease in the taxonomic level, the correlation and interpretation degree of the mean value of various climatic factors to the diversity rapidly decreased. It is possible that the ecological range of plant species is narrower, while the ecological range of plant families and genera is wider, which is consistent with a gradual decrease in plant threat levels with increasing latitude (Peng et al, 2021). Fluctuations in the external environment may allow plant species to acquire higher tolerance in order to cope with the effects of unfavorable conditions on themselves (Zhang and Tielbörger, 2019;Perez and Feeley, 2021).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 88%

Correlations and dominant climatic factors among diversity patterns of plant families, genera, and species

Bao

et al. 2022

Front. Ecol. Evol.

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At present, the relationship between the diversity distribution patterns of different taxonomic levels of plants and climatic factors is still unclear. This paper explored the diversity pattern of vascular plant families, genera, and species in China at the municipal scale. It also studied the effects of accumulated temperature ≥ 10°C, annual precipitation, and hydrothermal base which reflect the effect of hydrothermal resources on the plant diversity pattern. The results showed that: There were extremely significant correlations among the diversities of plant families, genera, and species, and the interpretation degree of diversity between adjacent the taxonomic levels was more than 90%. The diversity pattern of plant families was mainly affected by dominant climatic state indicators such as the maximum value of accumulated temperature, annual precipitation, and hydrothermal base, and the gradient range of the hydrothermal base, which showed a clear latitudinal gradient law. The diversity pattern of plant species was found to be mainly dependent on the climatic heterogeneity indicators, being closely related to the heterogeneity indicators and sum indicators of the hydrothermal base. It was also affected by the range of precipitation gradient range. Plant genus and its diversity pattern are not only significantly affected by heterogeneity and sum indicators but also closely related to climate state indicators. In comparison with the humidity index in vegetation ecological studies, the related indicators of the hydrothermal base proposed in this paper excelled at revealing the relationship between climate and diversity patterns of plant families, genera, and species, and could effectively solve the species-area relationship issue in arid and low-temperature areas. The results of this paper have presented important theoretical and practical values for comprehensively understanding the correlation between climate and diversity of plant families, genera, and species, clarifying the impact of climate difference and climate change on plant diversity.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 88%

Correlations and dominant climatic factors among diversity patterns of plant families, genera, and species

Bao

et al. 2022

Front. Ecol. Evol.

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“…Following the IPCC 2022 conceptual framework for risk assessment (Pörtner et al, 2022), the risk of decline of tree taxa was inferred by comparing species aridity niches and range size, reflecting vulnerability, with predicted aridity changes, reflecting exposure. Our methodology to quantify exposure and vulnerability is based on density of occurrences curves across the aridity gradient (Figure 1) and has been previously used to estimate species responses to climate change (Peng et al, 2021; Wooliver et al, 2022). It has been demonstrated that niche metrics as well as range size are crucial to estimate vulnerability to climate change (Thuiller et al, 2005).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Also, it has been shown that increase in the frequency of extreme events such as hotter droughts, can lead to large‐scale tree die‐off (Allen et al, 2010; Hammond et al, 2022). In addition, some tree species might occur in areas where climatic conditions are already reaching their tolerance limits (Lancaster & Humphreys, 2020; Sentinella et al, 2020), particularly in arid environments (Peng et al, 2021). However, predictions of changes in aridity conditions are highly variable on a regional scale (Huang et al, 2017; Lin et al, 2018; Park et al, 2018), with some warm drylands and deserts expected to experience even more rainfall than today, such as in the Sahara Desert (Pausata et al, 2020).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Tree biodiversity of warm drylands is likely to decline in a drier world

Cartereau

Leriche

Mèdail

et al. 2023

Global Change Biology

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Warm drylands represent 19% of land surfaces worldwide and host ca. 1100 tree species. The risk of decline due to climate aridification of this neglected biodiversity has been overlooked despite its ecological and societal importance. To fill this gap, we assessed the risk of decline due to climate aridification of tree species in warm drylands based on spatialized occurrence data and climate models. We considered both species vulnerability and exposure, compared the risk of tree species decline across five bioregions and searched for phylogenetic correlates. Depending on the future climate model, from 44% to 88% of warm drylands' tree species will undergo climate aridification with a high risk of decline even under the most optimistic conditions. On a regional scale, the rate of species that will undergo climate aridification in the future varies from 21% in the Old World North, to 90% in Australia, with a risk of decline confirming the high level of risk predicted at the global scale. Using generalized linear mixed models, we found that, species more exposed to climate aridification will be more at risk, but also that species vulnerability is a key driver of their risk of decline. Indeed, the warm drylands specialist species will be less at risk due to climate aridification than species being marginal in warm drylands. We also found that the risk of decline is widespread across the main clades of the phylogeny and involves several evolutionary distinct species. Estimating a high risk of decline for numerous tree species in all warm drylands, including emblematic dryland endemics, our work warns that future increase in aridity could result in an extensive erosion of tree biodiversity in these ecosystems.

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“…Species distributions and habitat areas represent the constraints and dispersal effects of environmental factors ( Brown et al., 1996 ). The effects of factors such as temperature, CO 2 concentration and climate on the growth of woody plants have been the subject of several studies ( Zanne et al., 2014 ; Baig et al., 2015 ; Zhang et al., 2016 ; Liu et al., 2018 ; Peng et al., 2021 ). To further investigate the effects of climate change on plant distribution dynamics, several research have used species distribution models (SDMs) to simulate changes in the geographic distributions and areas of plants ( Guisan and Thuiller, 2005 ; Alo and Wang, 2008 ; Valavi et al., 2022 ) to study the effects on species distribution patterns, which is essential for developing strategies for future biodiversity conservation ( Bellard et al., 2012 ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Meta-analysis of the impact of future climate change on the area of woody plant habitats in China

Tian

Liu

2023

Front. Plant Sci.

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Climate change poses a very serious threat to woody plants, and it is important to study its impact on the distribution dynamics of woody plants in China. However, there are no comprehensive quantitative studies on which factors influence the changes in the area of woody plant habitats in China under climate change. In this meta-analysis, we investigated the future suitable habitat area changes of 114 woody plant species in 85 studies based on MaxEnt model predictions to summarize the future climate change impacts on woody plant habitat area changes in China. It was found that climate change will result in a 3.66% increase in the overall woody plant suitable areas and a 31.33% decrease in the highly suitable areas in China. The mean temperature of the coldest quarter is the most important climatic factor, and greenhouse gas concentrations were inversely related to the area of future woody plant suitable areas. Meanwhile, shrubs are more climate-responsive than trees, drought-tolerant plants (e.g., Dalbergia, Cupressus, and Xanthoceras) and plants that can adapt quickly (e.g., Camellia, Cassia, and Fokienia) and their appearance will increase in the future. Old World temperate, Trop. Asia and Trop. Amer. disjuncted, and the Sino-Himalaya Floristic region are more vulnerable. Quantitative analysis of the possible risks to future climate change in areas suitable for woody plants in China is important for global woody plant diversity conservation.

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Towards an understanding of the latitudinal patterns in thermal tolerance and vulnerability of woody plants under climate warming

Cited by 6 publications

References 54 publications

Correlations and dominant climatic factors among diversity patterns of plant families, genera, and species

Correlations and dominant climatic factors among diversity patterns of plant families, genera, and species

Tree biodiversity of warm drylands is likely to decline in a drier world

Meta-analysis of the impact of future climate change on the area of woody plant habitats in China

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