Climate change poses a very serious threat to woody plants, and it is important to study its impact on the distribution dynamics of woody plants in China. However, there are no comprehensive quantitative studies on which factors influence the changes in the area of woody plant habitats in China under climate change. In this meta-analysis, we investigated the future suitable habitat area changes of 114 woody plant species in 85 studies based on MaxEnt model predictions to summarize the future climate change impacts on woody plant habitat area changes in China. It was found that climate change will result in a 3.66% increase in the overall woody plant suitable areas and a 31.33% decrease in the highly suitable areas in China. The mean temperature of the coldest quarter is the most important climatic factor, and greenhouse gas concentrations were inversely related to the area of future woody plant suitable areas. Meanwhile, shrubs are more climate-responsive than trees, drought-tolerant plants (e.g., Dalbergia, Cupressus, and Xanthoceras) and plants that can adapt quickly (e.g., Camellia, Cassia, and Fokienia) and their appearance will increase in the future. Old World temperate, Trop. Asia and Trop. Amer. disjuncted, and the Sino-Himalaya Floristic region are more vulnerable. Quantitative analysis of the possible risks to future climate change in areas suitable for woody plants in China is important for global woody plant diversity conservation.
Climate change poses a severe threat to biodiversity. Greenhouse gas emissions have accelerated climate warming and significantly impacted species distribution and population dynamics. Zanthoxylum armatum DC. is an ecologically, medicinally, and economically important plant; it is cultivated as an economic crop at large scales in China, and is a valuable medicinal plant in India, Nepal, etc. A precise prediction of the potential distribution areas of Z. armatum will contribute to its protection and determination of its planting areas. In this paper, based on 433 distribution points and 19 climate factors, the MaxEnt model was used to analyze the spatial distribution pattern of Z. armatum between 1970 and 2000, predict its spatial distribution pattern in 2040–2060 (the 2050s) and 2081–2100 (the 2090s), and comprehensively assess the critical climate factors limiting its geographical distribution. The findings are as follows: (1) in the 1970–2000 scenario, the potential suitable distribution areas of Z. armatum include the subtropical monsoon climate regions of Japan, the Korean Peninsula, the south of the Qinling–Huaihe Line of China, and the regions along the southern foot of the Himalayas (India, Bhutan, Nepal, etc.), with an area of 330.54 × 104 km2; (2) the critical climate factors affecting the potential distribution of Z. armatum include temperature (mean diurnal temperature range, mean temperature of the coldest quarter, and temperature seasonality) and annual precipitation; (3) the distribution areas of Z. armatum will shift to higher latitudes and shrink under the three climate change scenarios in the 2050s and 2090s. In the 2090s–SSP585 scenario, the total area of suitable habitat will decrease most markedly, and the decrease rate of the highly suitable areas will reach up to 97.61%; only the region near Delong Town, Nanshan District, Chongqing City, will remain a highly suitable habitat, covering an area of merely 0.08 × 104 km2. These findings suggest that Z. armatum is susceptible to climate change. The border area between Guizhou Province and Chongqing City and the southwest district of Leshan City, Sichuan Province, will be a stable and moderately high potential suitable habitat for Z. armatum in the future. The above regions are recommended to be managed as key protected areas.
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