Towards Agent-Based Scenario Development for Strategic Decision Support

Mensonides, Maarten; Huisman, Bob; Dignum, Virginia

doi:10.1007/978-3-540-77990-2_4

Cited by 9 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 16 publications

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“…As such, this differs from "participatory video," which relies purely on local knowledge, usually shot by local communities themselves (e.g., Braden 1999, Kindon 2003, White 2003. It also differs from other film outputs from other scenario projects that tend to rely mainly on scientific knowledge (e.g., Nakicenovic et al 1998, IPCC 2000, Morris et al 2005, Mensonides et al 2008). As such, the combination of local and scientific inputs gives the films a relevance and resonance that they could not otherwise have achieved, while being based on a rigorous evidence base.…”

mentioning

confidence: 84%

Anticipating and Managing Future Trade-offs and Complementarities between Ecosystem Services

Reed¹,

Hubacek²,

Bonn³

et al. 2013

E&S

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ABSTRACT. This paper shows how, with the aid of computer models developed in close collaboration with decision makers and other stakeholders, it is possible to quantify and map how policy decisions are likely to affect multiple ecosystem services in future. In this way, potential trade-offs and complementarities between different ecosystem services can be identified, so that policies can be designed to avoid the worst trade-offs, and where possible, enhance multiple services. The paper brings together evidence from across the Rural Economy and Land Use Programme's Sustainable Uplands project for the first time, with previously unpublished model outputs relating to runoff, agricultural suitability, biomass, heather cover, age, and utility for Red Grouse (Lagopus scotica), grass cover, and accompanying scenario narratives and video. Two contrasting scenarios, based on policies to extensify or intensify land management up to 2030, were developed through a combination of interviews and discussions during site visits with stakeholders, literature review, conceptual modeling, and process-based computer models, using the Dark Peak of the Peak District National Park in the UK as a case study. Where extensification leads to a significant reduction in managed burning and grazing or land abandonment, changes in vegetation type and structure could compromise a range of species that are important for conservation, while compromising provisioning services, amenity value, and increasing wildfire risk. However, where extensification leads to the restoration of peatlands damaged by former intensive management, there would be an increase in carbon sequestration and storage, with a number of cobenefits, which could counter the loss of habitats and species elsewhere in the landscape. In the second scenario, land use and management was significantly intensified to boost UK self-sufficiency in food. This would benefit certain provisioning services but would have negative consequences for carbon storage and water quality and would lead to a reduction in the abundance of certain species of conservation concern. The paper emphasizes the need for spatially explicit models that can track how ecosystem services might change over time, in response to policy or environmental drivers, and in response to the changing demands and preferences of society, which are far harder to anticipate. By developing such models in close collaboration with decision makers and other stakeholders, it is possible to depict scenarios of real concern to those who need to use the research findings. By engaging these collaborators with the research findings through film, it was possible to discuss adaptive options to minimize trade-offs and enhance the provision of multiple ecosystem services under the very different future conditions depicted by each scenario. By preparing for as wide a range of futures as possible in this way, it may be possible for decision makers to act rapidly and effectively to protect and enhance the provision of ecosystem services in the fac...

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mentioning

confidence: 84%

Anticipating and Managing Future Trade-offs and Complementarities between Ecosystem Services

Reed¹,

Hubacek²,

Bonn³

et al. 2013

E&S

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“…In general the validation phase involves a thorough analysis of the model and its components [19]. It is necessary to provide a means to analyze the perceptions and interactions of the different actors and to convert the envisioned future into common knowledge and shared goals.…”

Section: Validation Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

An Agent-Based Model of Research Collaboration in Collaborative Tagging for Scientific Publications

Klaisubun

Ishikawa

2006

2006 IEEE/WIC/ACM International Conference on Web Intelligence and Intelligent Agent Technology Workshops

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The paper describes an agent-based model of research collaboration in collaborative tagging system in order to develop an effective collaboration support system for scientific research communities. Based on a survey on social software such as collaborative tagging for the purpose of collaboration on the web, at first we analyze requirements for the social software as a collaboration support system for scientific researchers. Next we apply agent-based methodology to develop an agent-based model of research collaboration in collaborative tagging system that satisfies the requirements. Then we validate the model by comparing its functionalities to the existing collaborative tagging systems. Finally we conclude the paper and mention our future work.

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“…The scenario, which was finally recommended for implementation, hadn't assumed the establishment of a solar tax, or the calculation of it. Mensonides et al (2008) contributed to the criticism of scenario approaches. In his opinion scenarios often miss internal logic, trustworthiness and dynamics.…”

Section: Shortcomings and Constraints Of Scenario Approachesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Scenarios, their concept, elaboration and application

Fotr

Špaček

Souček³

et al. 2015

Baltic Journal of Management

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If you would like to write for this, or any other Emerald publication, then please use our Emerald for Authors service information about how to choose which publication to write for and submission guidelines are available for all. Please visit www.emeraldinsight.com/authors for more information. About Emerald www.emeraldinsight.comEmerald is a global publisher linking research and practice to the benefit of society. The company manages a portfolio of more than 290 journals and over 2,350 books and book series volumes, as well as providing an extensive range of online products and additional customer resources and services.Emerald is both COUNTER 4 and TRANSFER compliant. The organization is a partner of the Committee on Publication Ethics (COPE) and also works with Portico and the LOCKSS initiative for digital archive preservation. AbstractPurpose -The purpose of this paper is to elucidate on specific risk mitigation approach which is known as "scenario approach". Description of stepwise process of their elaboration, which is worth considering for managers, offers feasible tool not only for company risk management improvement but also for significant enhancement of the quality of company strategic planning. Authors also draw attention to advantages and disadvantages of investment and strategic scenario planning. Theoretical implications of using scenario approaches are exemplified both by the set of investment projects and company strategic planning process where method in question was applied. Design/methodology/approach -As for methods applied which fulfilled research strategies, it is worth mentioning following items: analysis which explores particular parts of methodology of scenario elaboration and application, the way of obtaining information, impact on strategy, working with risks and organizational support of outcomes in company environment; synthesis observing context and natural relation of problems solved which supports research hypotheses formulation; induction generalizing facts acquired from results in companies; deduction to be grounds on which conclusion of this paper was drawn up; abstraction used upon evaluation of case studies; comparison assessing consistency and inconsistency of phenomena and objects; description inevitable for characterization of companies and environment in which they operate; interview collecting information inevitable for the evaluation of the way of working with scenarios and company knowledge standards; modelling was used upon consideration about possible future development of factors observed. Findings -The paper arrived at conclusion, that scenario approach, when used appropriately, may significantly mitigate risk exposure of the company. Conclusions which have been made on selected industrial companies can be extended to other industrial branches. Practical application of scenario planning method confirmed that this approach was superior to deterministic single scenario model. Scenario technique thus compensates for deficiencies and omissions which are inherent in si...

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Towards Agent-Based Scenario Development for Strategic Decision Support

Cited by 9 publications

References 16 publications

Anticipating and Managing Future Trade-offs and Complementarities between Ecosystem Services

Anticipating and Managing Future Trade-offs and Complementarities between Ecosystem Services

An Agent-Based Model of Research Collaboration in Collaborative Tagging for Scientific Publications

Scenarios, their concept, elaboration and application

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