Scenarios, their concept, elaboration and application

Abstract

If you would like to write for this, or any other Emerald publication, then please use our Emerald for Authors service information about how to choose which publication to write for and submission guidelines are available for all. Please visit www.emeraldinsight.com/authors for more information. About Emerald www.emeraldinsight.comEmerald is a global publisher linking research and practice to the benefit of society. The company manages a portfolio of more than 290 journals and over 2,350 books and book series volumes, as well as providing an extensive range of online products and additional customer resources and services.Emerald is both COUNTER 4 and TRANSFER compliant. The organization is a partner of the Committee on Publication Ethics (COPE) and also works with Portico and the LOCKSS initiative for digital archive preservation. AbstractPurpose -The purpose of this paper is to elucidate on specific risk mitigation approach which is known as "scenario approach". Description of stepwise process of their elaboration, which is worth considering for managers, offers feasible tool not only for company risk management improvement but also for significant enhancement of the quality of company strategic planning. Authors also draw attention to advantages and disadvantages of investment and strategic scenario planning. Theoretical implications of using scenario approaches are exemplified both by the set of investment projects and company strategic planning process where method in question was applied. Design/methodology/approach -As for methods applied which fulfilled research strategies, it is worth mentioning following items: analysis which explores particular parts of methodology of scenario elaboration and application, the way of obtaining information, impact on strategy, working with risks and organizational support of outcomes in company environment; synthesis observing context and natural relation of problems solved which supports research hypotheses formulation; induction generalizing facts acquired from results in companies; deduction to be grounds on which conclusion of this paper was drawn up; abstraction used upon evaluation of case studies; comparison assessing consistency and inconsistency of phenomena and objects; description inevitable for characterization of companies and environment in which they operate; interview collecting information inevitable for the evaluation of the way of working with scenarios and company knowledge standards; modelling was used upon consideration about possible future development of factors observed. Findings -The paper arrived at conclusion, that scenario approach, when used appropriately, may significantly mitigate risk exposure of the company. Conclusions which have been made on selected industrial companies can be extended to other industrial branches. Practical application of scenario planning method confirmed that this approach was superior to deterministic single scenario model. Scenario technique thus compensates for deficiencies and omissions which are inherent in si...

Project portfolio optimization as a part of strategy implementation process in small and medium-sized enterprises: a methodology of the selection of projects with the aim to balance strategy, risk and performance

“…Effective PPM leads to: (1) effective allocation/ reallocation of resources, (2) reinforce ment of competitiveness within the fi rm, (3) balanced portfolios that include short-term and long-term projects that cover high-risk and low-risk projects, (4) possible suspension or termination of ineffective members within the project portfolio, (5) use of synergies between projects, (6) development of skills and competencies, (7) unifi cation of terminology, reporting and communication when managing projects and (8) searching for new opportunities for effective projects within investment limits (Fotr & Souček, 2015).…”

Model of scenario development in defense planning: Integration of scenario and decision: Making methods

“…Taking into account the abovementioned limitations of the application of the classification method in reducing the number of configuration, it is suggested that a multi-criteria decision -making methods are used to determine test attributes (Fotr, et al 2015). On the other hand, the methods of group decision -making may be used for determining the values of the environmental factors, which can be used for attribute test conditions (e.g.…”

“…To reduce the number of configurations for each class, using the principle of similarities configuration (Nguyen / Dunn 2009), grouping is carried out and determination of the reference configuration as a representative of the group (Fotr, et al 2015). Clustering methods or cluster analysis is used for the purpose of grouping configuration.…”

“…5 The value of the observed factor is greatly influenced by the values of other factors. 6 The value of the observed factor has a great influence on the values of other factors. Roadmap is a basis for the application of creative-narrative methods (Kosow / Gaßner 2008) for the transformation of the configurations, which are expressed by the factors and the values of factors into the text scenario, which "tells the story".…”

“…In the literature, in the field of management and decision -making theory, different ways of reducing the number of configurations can be found. Some of the possible ways is the application of classification and clustering to reduce the number of configurations and identify scenarios (Kosow / Gaßner 2008, Nguyen / Dunn 2009, Fotr, et al 2015, Calvo-Zaragoza, J.Valero-Mas/R.Rico-Juan 2015). Despite great literature dealing with the problems of reducing the number of configurations, there is no unique and systematic approach that integrates the methods of decision -making theory with the methods of scenario development.…”