We present a simple phase-matching model that takes into account the full spatiotemporal nature of capillary high-harmonic generation. Spectra predicted from the model are compared to experimental results for a number of gases and are shown to reproduce the spectral envelope of experimentally generated harmonics. The model demonstrates that an ionization-induced phase mismatch is limiting the energy of the generated harmonics in current capillary high-harmonic generation experiments. The success of this model shows that phase-matching processes play a dominant role in determining the emission from capillary high-harmonic generation.