Tourism–growth nexus in Pakistan: Evidence from ARDL bounds tests

Jalil, Abdul; Mahmood, Tahir; Idrees, Muhammad

doi:10.1016/j.econmod.2013.06.034

Cited by 146 publications

(72 citation statements)

References 43 publications

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“…For example, a shock in tourism explains about 42 per cent of the variation in economic growth, but a shock in economic growth only explains about 25 per cent of the variation in tourism. Despite tourism and economic growth are Granger-cause each other, when considering the relatively strength of the two causal effects, the results are more likely to be uni-directional causality running from tourism and economic growth which is in line with the findings of Lee and Hung (2010), Hye and Khan (2013), Jalil et al (2013), and Tang and Abosedra (2014).…”

Section: Insert Table 5 Heresupporting

confidence: 74%

“…They found that tourism Granger-cause economic growth in Spain but not evidence of reverse causation. Likewise, Katircioğlu (2010Katircioğlu ( , 2011 and Lee and Hung (2010) for Singapore, Jalil et al (2013) and Hye and Khan (2013) for Pakistan, Tang and Tan (2013a) for Malaysia, Tang and Abosedra (2014) for MENA countries, and Hatemi-J (2015) for the United Arab Emirates (UAE) also yield the same causality results that support the tourism-led growth hypothesis. However, another group of studies seem against the tourism-led growth hypothesis.…”

Section: Studies On the Nexus Of Tourism And Economic Growthsupporting

confidence: 65%

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Dynamic inter-relationships among tourism, economic growth and energy consumption in India

Tang

Tiwari

Shahbaz

2016

Geosystem Engineering

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This study attempts to explore the dynamic causal and inter-relationships among tourism, economic growth and energy consumption in India. This study covers the annual data from 1971 to 2012. This study applies the cointegration and generalised variance decomposition methods to verify the relationship. The bounds testing approach to cointegration and the Gregory-Hansen test for cointegration with structural break consistently reveal that energy consumption, tourism and economic growth in India are cointegrated. We find that tourism and economic growth strongly affects energy consumption in the long-run. Additionally, we also find that tourism and economic growth in India are inter-related, but the causal effect of tourism on economic growth is stronger than the other way around in both the short-and long-run. Therefore, this study concludes that the tourism-led growth hypothesis is valid but the energy-led growth hypothesis is invalid in India. With such findings, we can confirm that tourism is an important catalyst of growth to the Indian economy. Therefore, policymakers should promote and expand tourism industry in order to sustain the process of economic growth and development in India.Keywords: Cointegration; Economic growth; Energy consumption, Tourism; Variance decomposition 2 INTRODUCTIONOver the past decades, many studies pertaining to the engines of growth have been conducted with respect to developing countries. This is mainly due to the reason that they attempt to find an effective pillar to upgrade their status to developed countries. From our reading, we observe that energy and tourism are two common factors that hotly debated in the economic growth literature. Numerous studies have been conducted to verify the role of energy consumption and tourism in economic growth. However, their efforts failed to find a consistent causal relationship among economic growth, tourism and energy consumption.Some studies suggested that energy consumption and tourism stimulate long-term economic growth (e.g. Lean and Smyth, 2010;Lean and Tang, 2010;Hye and Khan, 2013;Tang and Shahbaz, 2013;Soares et al., 2014;, while other studies claimed the other way around or not related at all (e.g. Cheng, 1999;Ghosh, 2002;Oh, 2005; Katircioğlu, 2009;Alam et al., 2011;Ghosh, 2011;Ozturk and Acaravci, 2009). Therefore, it is very hard to derive a useful guideline for policymakers elsewhere to design appropriate growth policies for their economies.Apart from the ambiguity in the results, almost all existing studies likely to look at the impacts of energy consumption and tourism on economic growth separately, where these variables should be inter-related in nature. For example, tourism-related infrastructures and facilities require energy (e.g. oil and electricity) to operate them and energy is also one of the inputs of production that may link to economic growth. On the other hand, an increase in output and tourism demand such as tourist arrivals would increase the demand for energy.Then, an increase in international touri...

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Section: Insert Table 5 Heresupporting

confidence: 74%

Section: Studies On the Nexus Of Tourism And Economic Growthsupporting

confidence: 65%

Dynamic inter-relationships among tourism, economic growth and energy consumption in India

Tang

Tiwari

Shahbaz

2016

Geosystem Engineering

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“…The important outcome of the short run dynamics is the calculation of the coefficient of ECM.The lagged error correction coefficients, ECM t-1 are correct in sign, and significant in both cases verifying the established co-integrating relationships among the variables (Jalil et al, 2013). The ECM coefficient is negative and statistically significant.…”

Section: Findings and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 96%

Economic Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture: Empirical Evidence From The ARDL Approach for Turkey

Dumrul¹,

Kilicaslan²

2017

Pressacademia

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Purpose-The agricultural sector is one of the sectors most sensitive to climate change. This sector is directly affected by temperature and precipitation, which is an input in agricultural production. The main objective of this study is to evaluate the effects of climate change in agricultural production in Turkey. Methodology-The data cover the period 1961-2013. In this study, economic effects of climate change on agriculture were analyzed for Turkey using a time series approach. Findings-The increase in precipitation affects agricultural GDP positively, while the increase in temperature has a negative effect on agricultural GDP. Conclusion-In order to minimize the adverse effects of climate change in Turkey, which is one of the largest countries in the world in terms of agricultural land, it is important to establish policies, strategies, plans and programs to combat climate change.

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“…Surveys have shown that there was a positive and strong relationship between tourism and economic growth (Cortes-Jimenez and Pulina, 2010;Adnan Hye and Ali Khan, 2013;Tang and Abosedra, 2014;Pablo-Romero and Molina, 2013;Al-Mulali et al, 2014;Bouzahzah and El Menyari, 2013;Jalil et al, 2013). Sgroi et al (2014) shown that rural communities improve economic growth.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling and Forecasting of International Tourism Demand in ASEAN Countries

Karimi¹,

Faroughi²,

Rahim³

2015

American Journal of Applied Sciences

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This study attempts to find the best model to forecast international tourism demand using a series of key macroeconomic variables in ASEAN countries. Generally, we find that generalized Poisson regression model is the best one for estimating long-run international tourism demand. In addition, we find that inflation and real exchange rate have negative relationship with international tourism demand. On the other hand, foreign direct investment and openness of trade have positive relationship with international tourism demand. Cointegration test result shows that there is a long-run relationship between variables.

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Tourism–growth nexus in Pakistan: Evidence from ARDL bounds tests

Cited by 146 publications

References 43 publications

Dynamic inter-relationships among tourism, economic growth and energy consumption in India

Dynamic inter-relationships among tourism, economic growth and energy consumption in India

Economic Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture: Empirical Evidence From The ARDL Approach for Turkey

Modeling and Forecasting of International Tourism Demand in ASEAN Countries

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