Tourism demand, oil price fluctuation, exchange rate and economic growth: Evidence from ARDL model and Rolling window Granger causality for Tunisia

Abstract

The paper examines the relationship between tourism demand and its macroeconomic determinants (GDP, oil price, exchange rate) with an aim to test the dynamic interdependence between them in the case of Tunisia. Using yearly data from 1971 to 2014, the output of the ARDL model and the more recent Bootstrap rolling window Granger causality tests show important results with great economic implications for researchers, regulators, investors, … The results substantiate, especially, the following causal relationships, i.e. i) tourism-demand induces substantial increase in both economic growth and oil price, ii) economic growth led tourism demand, iii) increase in oil price affects negatively the tourism demand, iv) tourism demand and exchange rate are not significantly associated.

The impact of exchange rate and exchange rate volatility on tourism demand using disaggregated data

“…Vanegas and Croes also found the exchange rate to be an insignificant determinant of tourism demand to Aruba from the United States. These findings were supported by other studies such as Baran et al (2019), Bozkurt et al (2021) Catalbas (2016), Cheng et al (2013, Dhaoui et al (2017), Dogru et al (2017), Glauco andKhine (2013) and Samirkas and Samirkas (2015).…”

Cross‐border tourism: Case study of inbound Russian visitor arrivals to China

“…Thus, Russians would like to travel across the border to purchase cheaper clothes in Chinese cities, and this may also suggest that most Russian visitors are not really sensitive to the exchange rate between Russia and China, given Russian ruble depreciates again Chinese yuan. Three studies (Dhaoui, Sekrafi, & Ghandri, ; Falk, ; Hui & Yuen, ) also found that exchange rate has little effect on tourism demands. To reaffirm the discussion in the last section, the findings of the subsample analysis indicates that cross‐border Russian visitor arrivals to the neighbouring Chinese prefectural‐level cities along the Sino‐Russian border were not actually influenced by changes in the real exchange rate between Russia and China.…”

“…These empirical findings partially support Hypothesis H 3 , suggesting that the presence of land or river ports (land and river transport infrastructure) built in the sampled Chinese prefectural-level cities connecting to Russian destinations increased the number of Russian visitors visiting these sampled Chinese cities, and it also partially supports prior literature (Khadaroo & Seetanah, 2007, 2008Prideaux, 2000) showing that improvements in transport infrastructure will improve connectivity and accessibility between destinations, which increases visitor flows and enhances destination development. (Dhaoui, Sekrafi, & Ghandri, 2017;Falk, 2013;Hui & Yuen, 1998) and offer a wider choice of goods and services with improved quality that attract many Russians to travel across the border to visit and purchase. Thus, cross-border tourism between these two neighbouring countries has been developing and growing steadily during the study period.…”

Comovement amongst the demand for New Zealand tourism

“…Examples of these factors include marketing initiatives, whose designs, implementations, and outcomes may vary across tourism-importing countries; also, due to immigration policies, national security interests, as well as health and safety concerns, differences in visa regulations across countries are to be expected: restricting the entry of travelers coming to New Zealand from mainland China on February 3, 2020, to protect the nation from the effects of Covid-19 is a case in point; these restrictions were imposed on travelers from other countries as well, albeit with a lag. Other factors-such as changes in oil prices (Becken, 2008;Becken, 2010;Becken & Lennox, 2012;Chatziantoniou, Filis, Eeckels, & Apostolakis, 2013;Dhaoui, Sekrafi, & Ghandri, 2017), hosting sporting events and pandemics (Sun, Rodriguez, Wu, & Chuang, 2013), terrorist activities (Adams, Dixon, & Rimmer, 2001;Raza & Jawaid, 2013;Thompson, 2011), and natural disasters (Murakami, Kawamura, & Suzuki, 2012;Sun et al, 2013)-may be correlated across countries. However, these factors may elicit varied responses from tourists in different countries, and cause the trajectories of tourism demand to diverge.…”