Tolerance adaptation and precipitation changes complicate latitudinal patterns of climate change impacts

Bonebrake, Timothy C.; Mastrandrea, Michael D.

doi:10.1073/pnas.0911841107

Cited by 106 publications

(95 citation statements)

References 37 publications

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“…A significant association between spatial parameters and heat resistance was found, but this explained <1% of variation in heat resistance (females: R 2 < 0.01, slope = 2.30 km/°C, P < 0.01; males: R 2 < 0.01, slope = 2.45 km/°C, P < 0.01). An alternative analysis, testing qualitatively similar ideas, determines the degree to which heat resistance is structured across the phylogeny, estimating the covariance between phylogeny, heat resistance, and climatic variables as the phylogenetic t 1/2 (t 1/2 is equal to total tree height = 1, thus a t 1/2 > 1 reflects a strong association between phylogeny and heat resistance) ( Table 2, SLOUCH) (24). Strong to moderate phylogenetic signal (estimated from the relationship between phylogeny and CT max ) was detected for heat resistance (t 1/2 = 0.45-0.58).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Both mean temperatures and temperature extremes are expected to increase under the prevailing climate change scenarios (1), but the impact of these changes on species performances and distributions is still unclear. Previous studies comparing upper thermal limits of species provided conflicting geographical differences in thermal safety margins, with some finding these to be smaller for species from tropical regions (10,22,23) and others finding species from temperate or dry environments to be closer to their thermal maxima (11,16,24). …”

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confidence: 99%

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Upper thermal limits of Drosophila are linked to species distributions and strongly constrained phylogenetically

Kellermann

Overgaard

Hoffmann

et al. 2012

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

463

548

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Upper thermal limits vary less than lower limits among related species of terrestrial ectotherms. This pattern may reflect weak or uniform selection on upper limits, or alternatively tight evolutionary constraints. We investigated this issue in 94 Drosophila species from diverse climates and reared in a common environment to control for plastic effects that may confound species comparisons. We found substantial variation in upper thermal limits among species, negatively correlated with annual precipitation at the central point of their distribution and also with the interaction between precipitation and maximum temperature, showing that heat resistance is an important determinant of Drosophila species distributions. Species from hot and relatively dry regions had higher resistance, whereas resistance was uncorrelated with temperature in wetter regions. Using a suite of analyses we showed that phylogenetic signal in heat resistance reflects phylogenetic inertia rather than common selection pressures. Current species distributions are therefore more likely to reflect environmental sorting of lineages rather than local adaptation. Similar to previous studies, thermal safety margins were small at low latitudes, with safety margins smallest for species occupying both humid and dry tropical environments. Thus, species from a range of environments are likely to be at risk owing to climate change. Together these findings suggest that this group of insects is unlikely to buffer global change effects through marked evolutionary changes, highlighting the importance of facilitating range shifts for maintaining biodiversity.niche conservatism | stress resistance | thermal adaptation | evolutionary history | space T emperatures are expected to rise across the globe over the coming decades and centuries (1), and many studies suggest the potential for range shifts/reductions in many species (2). When assessing the likely impact of temperature changes on species survival, an implicit assumption is that the thermal environment shapes resistance to temperature extremes and thus dictates species range limits. Nevertheless, few studies have directly tested for such links between physiological upper thermal limits of ectothermic species and temperature conditions within their geographic range (3, 4). A related, little-investigated key point for predicting species range responses to climate change is whether upper thermal limits are modifiable through plastic and/or evolutionary responses (5, 6). Ideally, evolutionary and plastic responses within and across generations, including short-term hardening and acclimation, should be separated, as through a common garden approach whereby species are kept under controlled laboratory conditions (7,8). Without controlling for plastic responses, it is not possible to distinguish adaptive evolutionary responses, and species may erroneously seem close to their upper thermal thresholds (9-12), biasing extinction risk estimates.Furthermore, by examining the evolution of upper thermal limits (heat re...

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Upper thermal limits of Drosophila are linked to species distributions and strongly constrained phylogenetically

Kellermann

Overgaard

Hoffmann

et al. 2012

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

463

548

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Although some species may migrate and undergo range shifts to avoid climate-induced declines and potential extinction (5), an alternative outcome is adaptive evolution in response to selection imposed by climate (6). However, we lack a general understanding of whether local and global climatic factors such as temperature, precipitation, and water availability influence selection (2,7). Understanding these effects is critical for predicting the consequences of increasing droughts, heat waves, and extreme precipitation events that are expected in many regions (8,9).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Consequently, the rapid changes in Earth's recent climate impose challenges for many organisms, often reducing population fitness (2)(3)(4). Although some species may migrate and undergo range shifts to avoid climate-induced declines and potential extinction (5), an alternative outcome is adaptive evolution in response to selection imposed by climate (6).…”

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confidence: 99%

Precipitation drives global variation in natural selection

Siepielski

Morrissey

Buoro

et al. 2017

Science

278

283

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Climate change has the potential to affect the ecology and evolution of every species on Earth. Although the ecological consequences of climate change are increasingly well documented, the effects of climate on the key evolutionary process driving adaptationnatural selection-are largely unknown. We report that aspects of precipitation and potential evapotranspiration, along with the North Atlantic Oscillation, predicted variation in selection across plant and animal populations throughout many terrestrial biomes, whereas temperature explained little variation. By showing that selection was influenced by climate variation, our results indicate that climate change may cause widespread alterations in selection regimes, potentially shifting evolutionary trajectories at a global scale.C limate affects organisms in ways that ultimately shape patterns of biodiversity (1). Consequently, the rapid changes in Earth's recent climate impose challenges for many organisms, often reducing population fitness (2-4). Although some species may migrate and undergo range shifts to avoid climate-induced declines and potential extinction (5), an alternative outcome is adaptive evolution in response to selection imposed by climate (6). However, we lack a general understanding of whether local and global climatic factors such as temperature, precipitation, and water availability influence selection (2, 7). Understanding these effects is critical for predicting the consequences of increasing droughts, heat waves, and extreme precipitation events that are expected in many regions (8, 9).To quantify how climate variation influences selection, we assembled a large database of standardized directional selection gradients and differentials from spatially [mean = 4.6 ± 5.4 (SD) populations, range = 2 to 59 populations] and temporally [mean = 5.2 ± 6.8 (SD) years, range = 2 to 45 years] replicated selection studies (N = 168) in plant and animal populations (Table 1 and database S1). We focused on directional selection that can generate increases or decreases in trait values because it is well characterized and is likely to drive rapid evolution (10) in response to variation in climatic factors. However, selection acting on trait combinations and trait variance may also be affected by climate (7). Selection gradients estimate the strength and direction of selection acting directly on a trait, whereas differentials estimate "total selection" on a trait via both direct and indirect selection because of trait correlations (11). These standardized selection coefficients describe selection in terms of the relationship between relative fitness and quantitative traits measured in standard deviations, thus facilitating cross-study comparisons (11,12).Geographically, the database contains many estimates of selection from temperate, mid-latitude regions centered at 40°N (Fig. 1A). The populations in this database span many terrestrial biomes on Earth, with the exception of tundra and tropical rainforests where selection has rarely been quantified (Fig. 1B...

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“…Underlying these modeling efforts is often the more specific question of the rate of climate change a population can keep up with, in which case the changing environment typically can be considered in terms of changing temperature. For example, Huey and Kingsolver (Huey and Kingsolver, 1993) and Bonebrake and Mastrandrea (Bonebrake and Mastrandrea, 2010) apply the more generic models of Lynch and colleagues (Lynch and Lande, 1993;Lynch and Gabriel, 1987) to the evolution of thermal tolerance. These models retain symmetric fitness functions, such as the one specified above, for tractability.…”

Section: Continuous-time Asexual Model and Thermal Tolerance Examplementioning

confidence: 99%

Integrating mechanistic organism–environment interactions into the basic theory of community and evolutionary ecology

Baskett¹

2012

Journal of Experimental Biology

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SummaryThis paper presents an overview of how mechanistic knowledge of organism-environment interactions, including biomechanical interactions of heat, mass and momentum transfer, can be integrated into basic theoretical population biology through mechanistic functional responses that quantitatively describe how organisms respond to their physical environment. Integrating such functional responses into simple community and microevolutionary models allows scaling up of the organism-level understanding from biomechanics both ecologically and temporally. For community models, Holling-type functional responses for predator-prey interactions provide a classic example of the functional response affecting qualitative model dynamics, and recent efforts are expanding analogous models to incorporate environmental influences such as temperature. For evolutionary models, mechanistic functional responses dependent on the environment can serve as fitness functions in both quantitative genetic and game theoretic frameworks, especially those concerning function-valued traits. I present a novel comparison of a mechanistic fitness function based on thermal performance curves to a commonly used generic fitness function, which quantitatively differ in their predictions for response to environmental change. A variety of examples illustrate how mechanistic functional responses enhance model connections to biologically relevant traits and processes as well as environmental conditions and therefore have the potential to link theoretical and empirical studies. Sensitivity analysis of such models can provide biologically relevant insight into which parameters and processes are important to community and evolutionary responses to environmental change such as climate change, which can inform conservation management aimed at protecting response capacity. Overall, the distillation of detailed knowledge or organism-environment interactions into mechanistic functional responses in simple population biology models provides a framework for integrating biomechanics and ecology that allows both tractability and generality.

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Tolerance adaptation and precipitation changes complicate latitudinal patterns of climate change impacts

Cited by 106 publications

References 37 publications

Upper thermal limits of Drosophila are linked to species distributions and strongly constrained phylogenetically

Upper thermal limits of Drosophila are linked to species distributions and strongly constrained phylogenetically

Precipitation drives global variation in natural selection

Integrating mechanistic organism–environment interactions into the basic theory of community and evolutionary ecology

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