Selection is a central process in nature. Although our understanding of the strength and form of selection has increased, a general understanding of the temporal dynamics of selection in nature is lacking. Here, we assembled a database of temporal replicates of selection from studies of wild populations to synthesize what we do (and do not) know about the temporal dynamics of selection. Our database contains 5519 estimates of selection from 89 studies, including estimates of both direct and indirect selection as well as linear and nonlinear selection. Morphological traits and studies focused on vertebrates were well-represented, with other traits and taxonomic groups less well-represented. Overall, three major features characterize the temporal dynamics of selection. First, the strength of selection often varies considerably from year to year, although random sampling error of selection coefficients may impose bias in estimates of the magnitude of such variation. Second, changes in the direction of selection are frequent. Third, changes in the form of selection are likely common, but harder to quantify. Although few studies have identified causal mechanisms underlying temporal variation in the strength, direction and form of selection, variation in environmental conditions driven by climatic fluctuations appear to be common and important.

Gene flow among populations is typically thought to be antagonistic to population differentiation and local adaptation. However, this assumes that dispersing individuals disperse randomly with respect to their ability to use the environment. Yet dispersing individuals often sample and compare environments and settle in those environments that best match their phenotype, causing directed gene flow, which can in fact promote population differentiation and adaptation. We refer to this process as "matching habitat choice." Although this process has been acknowledged by several researchers, no synthesis or perspective on its potentially widespread importance exists. Here we synthesize empirical and theoretical studies, and offer a new perspective that matching habitat choice can have significant effects on important and controversial topics. We discuss the potential implications of matching habitat choice for the degree and rate of local adaptation, the evolution of niche width, adaptive peak shifts, speciation in the presence of gene flow, and on our view and interpretation of measures of natural selection. Because of its potential importance for such a wide range of topics, we call for heightened empirical and theoretical attention for this neglected dimension in evolutionary and ecological studies.

Few studies have shown both reciprocal selection and reciprocal adaptations for a coevolving system in the wild. The goal of our study was to determine whether the patterns of selection on Rocky Mountain lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta spp. latifolia) and red crossbills (Loxia curvirostra complex) were concordant with earlier published evidence of reciprocal adaptations in lodgepole pine and crossbills on isolated mountain ranges in the absence of red squirrels (Tamiasciurus hudsonicus). We found that selection (directional) by crossbills on lodgepole pine where Tamiasciurus are absent was divergent from the selection (directional) exerted by Tamiasciurus on lodgepole pine. This resulted in divergent selection between areas with and without Tamiasciurus that was congruent with the geographic patterns of cone variation. In the South Hills, Idaho, where Tamiasciurus are absent and red crossbills are thought to be coevolving with lodgepole pine, crossbills experienced stabilizing selection on bill size, with cone structure as the agent of selection. These results show that crossbills and lodgepole pine exhibit reciprocal adaptations in response to reciprocal selection, and they provide insight into the traits mediating and responding to selection in a coevolutionary arms race.

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Climate change has the potential to affect the ecology and evolution of every species on Earth. Although the ecological consequences of climate change are increasingly well documented, the effects of climate on the key evolutionary process driving adaptationnatural selection-are largely unknown. We report that aspects of precipitation and potential evapotranspiration, along with the North Atlantic Oscillation, predicted variation in selection across plant and animal populations throughout many terrestrial biomes, whereas temperature explained little variation. By showing that selection was influenced by climate variation, our results indicate that climate change may cause widespread alterations in selection regimes, potentially shifting evolutionary trajectories at a global scale.C limate affects organisms in ways that ultimately shape patterns of biodiversity (1). Consequently, the rapid changes in Earth's recent climate impose challenges for many organisms, often reducing population fitness (2-4). Although some species may migrate and undergo range shifts to avoid climate-induced declines and potential extinction (5), an alternative outcome is adaptive evolution in response to selection imposed by climate (6). However, we lack a general understanding of whether local and global climatic factors such as temperature, precipitation, and water availability influence selection (2, 7). Understanding these effects is critical for predicting the consequences of increasing droughts, heat waves, and extreme precipitation events that are expected in many regions (8, 9).To quantify how climate variation influences selection, we assembled a large database of standardized directional selection gradients and differentials from spatially [mean = 4.6 ± 5.4 (SD) populations, range = 2 to 59 populations] and temporally [mean = 5.2 ± 6.8 (SD) years, range = 2 to 45 years] replicated selection studies (N = 168) in plant and animal populations (Table 1 and database S1). We focused on directional selection that can generate increases or decreases in trait values because it is well characterized and is likely to drive rapid evolution (10) in response to variation in climatic factors. However, selection acting on trait combinations and trait variance may also be affected by climate (7). Selection gradients estimate the strength and direction of selection acting directly on a trait, whereas differentials estimate "total selection" on a trait via both direct and indirect selection because of trait correlations (11). These standardized selection coefficients describe selection in terms of the relationship between relative fitness and quantitative traits measured in standard deviations, thus facilitating cross-study comparisons (11,12).Geographically, the database contains many estimates of selection from temperate, mid-latitude regions centered at 40°N (Fig. 1A). The populations in this database span many terrestrial biomes on Earth, with the exception of tundra and tropical rainforests where selection has rarely been quantified (Fig. 1B...