To mask or not to mask: Modeling the potential for face mask use by the general public to curtail the COVID-19 pandemic

Eikenberry, Steffen E.; Mancuso, Marina; Iboi, Enahoro; Phan, Tin; Eikenberry, Keenan; Kuang, Yang; Kostelich, Eric J.; Gumel, Abba B.

doi:10.1016/j.idm.2020.04.001

Cited by 1,114 publications

(1,180 citation statements)

References 28 publications

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“…For example, even face-mask efficacy of 25% can lead to a 63% and 64% reduction in the number of hospitalizations/isolation of confirmed cases at the pandemic peak in New York state and nationwide if 75% of the population wear face-masks in public. These results are consistent with those reported by Eikenberry et al [45]. Furthermore, by generating contour plots for the control reproduction number of the model (2.1) (R c ), as a function of mask efficiency ( M ) and coverage (c M ), our study shows that the use of high efficacy masks (such as surgical masks, with estimated efficacy of ≥ 75%) will, indeed, lead to the elimination of COVID-19 (in both the state of New York and in the entire US nation) if the coverage is high enough (about 80%).…”

Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 94%

“…Since about 15% of COVID-19 patients die [34], we estimated δ u = δ h = 0.015 per day. To obtain estimates for δ a and δ icu , we assume that δ a = 0.5δ u (so that δ a = 0.0075 per day) and δ icu = 1.5δ u (so that, δ icu = 0.0225 per day) [45]. The parameter for the efficacy of quarantine to prevent acquisition of infection during quarantine (θ j ) is estimated to be θ j = 0.5.…”

Section: Baseline Values Of Model Parametersmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…72-85% and 98-99% for surgical and N95-equivalent masks. Consequently, following Eikenberry et al [45], we estimate inward mask efficacy to range widely between 20-80% for cloth masks, and at least 50% for well-made, tightly fitting masks made of optimal materials, and 70-90% for surgical masks, and over 95% typical for p in the range of properly worn N95 masks. Based on this, we set M = 0.5.…”

Section: Efficacy Of Face-masks To Prevent Acquisition Of Infection Bmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Mathematical assessment of the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on curtailing the 2019 novel Coronavirus

Ngonghala

Iboi

Eikenberry

et al. 2020

Preprint

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A pandemic of a novel Coronavirus emerged in December of 2019 , causing devastating public health impact across the world. In the absence of a safe and effective vaccine or antivirals, strategies for controlling and mitigating the burden of the pandemic are focused on non-pharmaceutical interventions, such as social-distancing, contact-tracing, quarantine, isolation and the use of face-masks in public. We develop a new mathematical model for assessing the population-level impact of the aforementioned control and mitigation strategies. Rigorous analysis of the model shows that the disease-free equilibrium is locally-asymptotically stable if a certain epidemiological threshold, known as the reproduction number (denoted by R c ), is less than unity. This equilibrium is globally-asymptotically stable, for a special case of the model where quarantined-susceptible individuals do not acquire COVID-19 infection during quarantine, when R c is less than unity. The epidemiological consequence of this theoretical result is that, the community-wide implementation of control interventions that can bring (and maintain) R c to a value less than unity will lead to the effective control (or elimination) of COVID-19 in the community. Simulations of the model, using data relevant to COVID-19 transmission dynamics in the US state of New York and the entire US, show that the pandemic burden will peak in mid and late April, respectively. The worst-case scenario projections for cumulative mortality (based on baseline levels of interventions) are 105, 100 for New York state and 164, 000 for the entire US by the end of the pandemic. These numbers dramatically decreased by 80% and 64%, respectively, if adherence to strict social-distancing measures is improved and maintained until the end of May or June. The duration and timing of the relaxation or termination of the strict social-distancing measures are crucially-important in determining the future trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic. This study shows that early termination of the strict social-distancing measures could trigger a devastating second wave with burden similar to those projected before the onset of the strict social-distance measures were implemented. The use of efficacious face-masks (such as surgical masks, with estimated efficacy ≥ 70%) in public could lead to the elimination of the pandemic if at least 70% of the residents of New York state use such masks in public consistently (nationwide, a compliance of at least 80% will be required using such masks). The use of low efficacy masks, such as cloth masks (of estimated efficacy less than 30%), could also lead to significant reduction of COVID-19 burden (albeit, they are not able to lead to elimination). Combining low efficacy masks with improved levels of the other anti-COVID-19 intervention strategies

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Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 94%

Section: Baseline Values Of Model Parametersmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Efficacy Of Face-masks To Prevent Acquisition Of Infection Bmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Mathematical assessment of the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on curtailing the 2019 novel Coronavirus

Ngonghala

Iboi

Eikenberry

et al. 2020

Preprint

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Since the outbreak many mathematical models have been proposed to estimate the growth rates and understand the transmission dynamics of COVID-19. These include phenomenological models [16,17], stochastic models [18], both of which are very useful in the early stages of the outbreak, and mechanistic models [19,20,22,23,30] that incorporate our understanding of the transmission pathways. Imran et.al [24] and Perkins et.al [31] have used optimal control techniques to propose efficient control strategies.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Can medication mitigate the need for a strict lock down?: A mathematical study of control strategies for COVID-19 infection

Ali

Imran

Khan³

2020

Preprint

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BackgroundCOVID-19 is a pandemic that has swept across the world in 2020. To date the only effective control mechanisms were non-pharmaceutical interventions, however there have been encouraging reports regarding possible medication in the literature, with emergency approval given to some drugs in various countries.MethodsWe formulate a deterministic epidemic model to study the effects of medication on the transmission dynamics of Corona Virus Disease (COVID-19). We are especially interested in how the availability of medication could change the necessary quarantine measures for effective control of the disease. We model the transmission by extending the SEIR model to include asymptomatic, quarantined, isolated and medicated population compartments.ResultsWe calculate the basic reproduction number R0 and show that for R0<1 the disease dies out and for R0>1 the disease is endemic. Using sensitivity analysis we establish that R0 is most sensitive to the rates of quarantine and medication. We also study how the effectiveness and the rate of medication along with the quarantine rate affect R0. We devise optimal quarantine, medication and isolation strategies, noting that availability of medication reduces the duration and severity of the lock-down needed for effective disease control.ConclusionOur study also reinforces the idea that with the availability of medication, while the severity of the lock downs can be eased over time some social distancing protocols need to be observed, at least till a vaccine is found. We also analyze the COVID-19 outbreak data for four different countries, in two of these, India and Pakistan the curve is still rising, and in he other two, Italy and Spain, the epidemic curve is now falling due to effective quarantine measures. We provide estimates of R0 and the proportion of asymptomatic individuals in the population for these countries.

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“…Also, the Government of states has implemented lockdown, travel restrictions, quarantine measures and testing to control the disease. Several epidemiological mathematical models [3][4][5][6][7][8][9] have been developed to make the right decisions in these measures. These have highlighted that social distancing intervention to mitigate the epidemic is a key aspect.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effect of an antiviral drug control in host COVID-19 kinetics

Chatterjee¹,

Mondal

Samui

2020

Preprint

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The article proposes and analyzes a system of diﬀerential equations modeling the interaction of the SARS-CoV-2 virus and the epithelial cells of the human lungs. Optimal control strategies representing antiviral drug treatment eﬀects of this model are explored here. The Pontryagin’s max-imum principle is used to clarify the optimal control strategies. The exis-tence of optimal control is proved and eﬀective strategies are illustrated. Numerical simulations, eﬃciency analysis, and cost-eﬀectiveness analysis reveal that time-dependent antiviral drug with other control mechanisms, would reduce the viral load and control the infection process at low cost.

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To mask or not to mask: Modeling the potential for face mask use by the general public to curtail the COVID-19 pandemic

Cited by 1,114 publications

References 28 publications

Mathematical assessment of the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on curtailing the 2019 novel Coronavirus

Mathematical assessment of the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on curtailing the 2019 novel Coronavirus

Can medication mitigate the need for a strict lock down?: A mathematical study of control strategies for COVID-19 infection

Effect of an antiviral drug control in host COVID-19 kinetics

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