Can medication mitigate the need for a strict lock down?: A mathematical study of control strategies for COVID-19 infection

Abstract

BackgroundCOVID-19 is a pandemic that has swept across the world in 2020. To date the only effective control mechanisms were non-pharmaceutical interventions, however there have been encouraging reports regarding possible medication in the literature, with emergency approval given to some drugs in various countries.MethodsWe formulate a deterministic epidemic model to study the effects of medication on the transmission dynamics of Corona Virus Disease (COVID-19). We are especially interested in how the availability of medication could change the necessary quarantine measures for effective control of the disease. We model the transmission by extending the SEIR model to include asymptomatic, quarantined, isolated and medicated population compartments.ResultsWe calculate the basic reproduction number R0 and show that for R0<1 the disease dies out and for R0>1 the disease is endemic. Using sensitivity analysis we establish that R0 is most sensitive to the rates of quarantine and medication. We also study how the effectiveness and the rate of medication along with the quarantine rate affect R0. We devise optimal quarantine, medication and isolation strategies, noting that availability of medication reduces the duration and severity of the lock-down needed for effective disease control.ConclusionOur study also reinforces the idea that with the availability of medication, while the severity of the lock downs can be eased over time some social distancing protocols need to be observed, at least till a vaccine is found. We also analyze the COVID-19 outbreak data for four different countries, in two of these, India and Pakistan the curve is still rising, and in he other two, Italy and Spain, the epidemic curve is now falling due to effective quarantine measures. We provide estimates of R0 and the proportion of asymptomatic individuals in the population for these countries.