Time trends in tuberculosis mortality across the BRICS: an age-period-cohort analysis for the GBD 2019

Zou, Zhiyong; Liu, Guangqi; Hay, Simon I.; Basu, Saurav; Belgaumi, Uzma Iqbal; Dhali, Arkadeep; Dhingra, Sameer; Fekadu, Ginenus; Golechha, Mahaveer; Joseph, Nitin; Krishan, Kewal; Martins-Melo, Francisco Rogerlândio; Mubarik, Sumaira; Okonji, Osaretin Christabel; A, Mahesh P.; Rathi, Priya; Shetty, Ranjitha S; Singh, Paramdeep; Singh, Surjit; Thangaraju, Pugazhenthan; Wang, Ziyue; Застрожин, Михаил Сергеевич; Murray, Christopher J L; Kyu, Hmwe Hmwe; Huang, Yangmu

doi:10.1016/j.eclinm.2022.101646

Cited by 17 publications

(4 citation statements)

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“…Some data were not directly measured when the reliably original data was lacking or reporting lag. Hence, it didn’t remain very objective or ambiguities ( 46 ). Secondly, interpreting results from the age-period-cohort model at the population level doesn’t necessarily hold for individuals, so there might be an ecological fallacy.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

More recent insights into the breast cancer burden across BRICS-Plus: Health consequences in key nations with emerging economies using the global burden of disease study 2019

et al. 2023

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BackgroundBrazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, and 30 other Asian nations make up the BRICS-Plus, a group of developing countries that account for about half of the world’s population and contribute significantly to the global illness burden. This study aimed to analyzed the epidemiological burden of female breast cancer (BC) across the BRICS-Plus from 1990 to 2019 and studied the associations with age, period, birth cohort and countries’ sociodemographic index (SDI).MethodsThe BC mortality and incidence estimates came from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease Study. We estimated cohort and period effects in BC outcomes between 1990 and 2019 using age-period-cohort (APC) modeling. The maximum likelihood (ML) of the APC-model Poisson with log (Y) based on the natural-spline function was used to estimate the rate ratio (RR). We used annualized rate of change (AROC) to quantify change over the previous 30 years in BC across BRICS-Plus and compare it to the global.ResultsIn 2019, there were about 1.98 million female BC cases (age-standardized rate of 45.86 [95% UI: 41.91, 49.76]) and 0.69 million deaths (age-standardized rate of 15.88 [95% UI: 14.66, 17.07]) around the globe. Among them, 45.4% of incident cases and 51.3% of deaths were attributed to the BRICS-Plus. China (41.1% cases and 26.5% deaths) and India (16.1% cases and 23.1% deaths) had the largest proportion of incident cases and deaths among the BRICS-Plus nations in 2019. Pakistan came in third with 5.6% cases and 8.8% deaths. Over the past three decades, from 1990 to 2019, the BRICS-Plus region’s greatest AROC was seen in Lesotho (2.61%; 95%UI: 1.99-2.99). The birth cohort impacts on BC vary significantly among the BRICS-Plus nations. Overall, the risk of case-fatality rate tended to decline in all BRICS-Plus nations, notably in South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) and China-ASEAN Free Trade Area (China-ASEAN FTA) countries, and the drop in risk in the most recent cohort was lowest in China and the Maldives. Additionally, there was a substantial negative link between SDI and case fatality rate (r1990= -0.91, p<0.001; r2019= -0.89, p<0.001) in the BRICS-Plus in both 1990 and 2019, with the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) nations having the highest case fatality rate.ConclusionsThe BC burden varies remarkably between different BRICS-Plus regions. Although the BRICS’ efforts to regulate BC succeeded, the overall improvements lagged behind those in high-income Asia-Pacific nations. Every BRICS-Plus country should strengthen specific public health approaches and policies directed at different priority groups, according to BRIC-Plus and other high-burden nations.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

More recent insights into the breast cancer burden across BRICS-Plus: Health consequences in key nations with emerging economies using the global burden of disease study 2019

et al. 2023

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“…The improvement of health care in the country and the effective implementation of respiratory TB control measures are considered to be important reasons. [20] The results of this study also showed that the rate of decline in respiratory TB mortality within segments varied over time, with the fastest decline in urban areas occurring from 1987-2000 and the fastest decline in rural areas occurring from 2001-2008. Although the peak period of decline lagged that of urban areas, the decline was faster in rural areas.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 52%

Urban-Rural Disparities in Mortality due to Respiratory Tuberculosis in China: An Age-Period-Cohort Analysis from 1987 to 2021

Zhong

et al. 2023

Preprint

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Background China has a high disease burden of respiratory Tuberculosis (TB) and understanding the long-term trends in respiratory TB deaths and their epidemiological characteristics will assist China in achieving the WHO 2035 goal of ending the worldwide TB pandemic. To guide future respiratory TB preventive and intervention initiatives in China, this study thoroughly analyzed the secular trends of respiratory TB death statistics at a national level. Methods The annual estimate of respiratory TB mortality was derived from the National Health Commission (NHC). The trend pattern was detected using Joinpoint regression analysis, and the age-period-cohort model was used to estimate cohort and period effects. Results Between 1987 and 2021, China's respiratory TB mortality showed a consistent downward trend. respiratory TB mortality in urban areas decreased by 87% with an AAPC of -5.5% during the whole study period, while rural areas fell by 92% with an AAPC of -6.6%. There was a huge urban-rural disparity in respiratory TB mortality in China, with respiratory TB mortality in rural 2.05 times higher than that of the urban population in 1987, while by 2021 this figure had fallen to 1.32 times. respiratory TB mortality is higher in men than in women, and the relative risk gap has widened over time. Age effects in urban and rural areas presented inconsistent variation characteristics. The peak respiratory TB mortality rate occurs at 70–80 years of age in urban populations, whereas in rural with a peak occurs between 20 and 30 years. Overall, women had a higher mortality rate than men until the age of 25, but after 30 years, men's rates exceeded those of women. The period relative risk of respiratory TB mortality for urban and rural males and females showed a monotonic decreasing trend. And with the posterior shift of birth years, the cohort effect showed a decreasing trend. Conclusion There was a significant reduction in respiratory TB deaths between 1987–2021, particularly in rural areas. The risk of TB death is higher among men and rural populations. And the gap between urban and rural areas is widening, while the gender gap is closing. Certain groups such as children and older men need priority for prevention and control policies. The Chinese government should develop timely, effective, and targeted intervention strategies to further reduce respiratory TB mortality and help to achieve global respiratory TB control targets. Trial registration Not applicable.

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“…In this model, the net drift represents the log‐linear trend in the period and cohort of the entire population, while the local drift represents the log‐linear trend in the period and cohort of each age group. The model's results showed a longitudinal age curve, a period relative risk, and a cohort relative risk 20 . We calculated HIV and population data for a consecutive 5‐year period, from 1990 to 2019.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Trends in the burden and determinants of HIV in the Asia‐Pacific region (1990−2019): An age‐period‐cohort analysis of the 2019 Global Burden of Disease Study

Li,

Xie,

Cui

et al. 2024

Journal of Medical Virology

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Although the burden of the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) in the Asia‐Pacific region is increasingly severe, comprehensive evidence of the burden of HIV is scarce. We aimed to report the burden of HIV in people aged 15−79 years from 1990 to 2019 using data from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2019. We analyzed rates of age‐standardized disability‐adjusted life years (ASDR), age‐standardized mortality (ASMR), and age‐standardized incidence (ASIR) in our age‐period‐cohort analysis by sociodemographic index (SDI). According to HIV reports in 2019 from 29 countries in the Asia‐Pacific region, the low SDI group in Papua New Guinea had the highest ASDR, ASMR, and ASIR. From 1990 to 2019, the ASDR, ASIR, and ASMR of persons with acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) increased in 21 (72%) of the 29 countries in the Asia‐Pacific region. During the same period, the disability‐adjusted life years (DALYs) of AIDS patients in the low SDI group in the region grew the fastest, particularly in Nepal. The incidence of HIV among individuals aged 20−30 years in the low‐middle SDI group was higher than that of those in the other age groups. In 2019, unsafe sex was the main cause of HIV‐related ASDR in the region's 29 countries, followed by drug use. The severity of the burden of HIV/AIDS in the Asia‐Pacific region is increasing, especially among low SDI groups. Specific public health policies should be formulated based on the socioeconomic development level of each country to alleviate the burden of HIV/AIDS.

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Time trends in tuberculosis mortality across the BRICS: an age-period-cohort analysis for the GBD 2019

Cited by 17 publications

References 36 publications

More recent insights into the breast cancer burden across BRICS-Plus: Health consequences in key nations with emerging economies using the global burden of disease study 2019

More recent insights into the breast cancer burden across BRICS-Plus: Health consequences in key nations with emerging economies using the global burden of disease study 2019

Urban-Rural Disparities in Mortality due to Respiratory Tuberculosis in China: An Age-Period-Cohort Analysis from 1987 to 2021

Trends in the burden and determinants of HIV in the Asia‐Pacific region (1990−2019): An age‐period‐cohort analysis of the 2019 Global Burden of Disease Study

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