Time trends and age-period-cohort analyses on incidence rates of thyroid cancer in Shanghai and Hong Kong

Xie, Shao-Hua; Chen, Juan; Zhang, Bo; Wang, Feng; Li, Shanshan; Xie, Chan; Tse, Lap Ah; Cheng, Jinquan

doi:10.1186/1471-2407-14-975

Cited by 45 publications

(43 citation statements)

References 37 publications

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“…The dramatic rise in thyroid cancer among women is consistent with that observed in other countries; and, while it may reflect “overdiagnosis” through increased use of new imaging technologies (ultrasound, computed tomography, and magnetic resonance imaging) in the assessment of the thyroid gland, in the absence of information about disease stage, it is not possible to rule out a real increase in incidence.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 64%

Cancer statistics in China, 2015

Chen¹,

Zheng²,

Baade

et al. 2016

CA A Cancer J Clinicians

14,856

12,175

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With increasing incidence and mortality, cancer is the leading cause of death in China and is a major public health problem. Because of China's massive population (1.37 billion), previous national incidence and mortality estimates have been limited to small samples of the population using data from the 1990s or based on a specific year. With high-quality data from an additional number of population-based registries now available through the National Central Cancer Registry of China, the authors analyzed data from 72 local, population-based cancer registries (2009-2011), representing 6.5% of the population, to estimate the number of new cases and cancer deaths for 2015. Data from 22 registries were used for trend analyses (2000-2011). The results indicated that an estimated 4292,000 new cancer cases and 2814,000 cancer deaths would occur in China in 2015, with lung cancer being the most common incident cancer and the leading cause of cancer death. Stomach, esophageal, and liver cancers were also commonly diagnosed and were identified as leading causes of cancer death. Residents of rural areas had significantly higher age-standardized (Segi population) incidence and mortality rates for all cancers combined than urban residents (213.6 per 100,000 vs 191.5 per 100,000 for incidence; 149.0 per 100,000 vs 109.5 per 100,000 for mortality, respectively). For all cancers combined, the incidence rates were stable during 2000 through 2011 for males (+0.2% per year; P = .1), whereas they increased significantly (+2.2% per year; P < .05) among females. In contrast, the mortality rates since 2006 have decreased significantly for both males (-1.4% per year; P < .05) and females (-1.1% per year; P < .05). Many of the estimated cancer cases and deaths can be prevented through reducing the prevalence of risk factors, while increasing the effectiveness of clinical care delivery, particularly for those living in rural areas and in disadvantaged populations.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 64%

Cancer statistics in China, 2015

Chen¹,

Zheng²,

Baade

et al. 2016

CA A Cancer J Clinicians

14,856

12,175

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Recently, the number of thyroid carcinoma cases annually had increased by 4 % globally [2] and became the fastest growing type of cancer in many countries [1, 3]. China also suffers a large burden from thyroid cancer [4, 5]. China accounts for a large portion of thyroid cancer patients around the world.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A panel of four genes accurately differentiates benign from malignant thyroid nodules

Wang

Chen

Cai

et al. 2016

J Exp Clin Cancer Res

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BackgroundClinicians are confronted with an increasing number of patients with thyroid nodules. Reliable preoperative diagnosis of thyroid nodules remains a challenge because of inconclusive cytological examination of fine-needle aspiration biopsies. Although molecular analysis of thyroid tissue has shown promise as a diagnostic tool in recent years, it has not been successfully applied in routine clinical use, particularly in Chinese patients.MethodsWhole-transcriptome sequencing of 19 primary papillary thyroid cancer (PTC) samples and matched adjacent normal thyroid tissue (NT) samples were performed. Bioinformatics analysis was carried out to identify candidate diagnostic genes. Then, RT-qPCR was performed to evaluate these candidate genes, and four genes were finally selected. Based on these four genes, diagnostic algorithm was developed (training set: 100 thyroid cancer (TC) and 65 benign thyroid lesions (BTL)) and validated (independent set: 123 TC and 81 BTL) using the support vector machine (SVM) approach.ResultsWe discovered four genes, namely fibronectin 1 (FN1), gamma-aminobutyric acid type A receptor beta 2 subunit (GABRB2), neuronal guanine nucleotide exchange factor (NGEF) and high-mobility group AT-hook 2 (HMGA2). A SVM model with these four genes performed with 97.0 % sensitivity, 93.8 % specificity, 96.0 % positive predictive value (PPV), and 95.3 % negative predictive value (NPV) in training set. For additional independent validation, it also showed good performance (92.7 % sensitivity, 90.1 % specificity, 93.4 % PPV, and 89.0 % NPV).ConclusionsOur diagnostic panel can accurately distinguish benign from malignant thyroid nodules using a simple and affordable method, which may have daily clinical application in the near future.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13046-016-0447-3) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

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“…The age-period-cohort (APC) model is a common statistical method that has been widely used to describe and explain secular trends in disease rates in populations over time, especially for cancer [12,13]. Age, period (year of death), and cohort (year of birth) are three independent factors that have been found to be associated with cancer mortality, and, therefore, each of these factors may affect trends in cancer mortality.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Comparison of Secular Trends in Cervical Cancer Mortality in China and the United States: An Age-Period-Cohort Analysis

Wang

Bai

Wang

et al. 2016

IJERPH

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Abstract:Background: As one of the most common cancers in the female population, cervical cancer has ranked as the second most incident gynecological cancer in recent years, trailing only breast cancer. We aimed to assess and compare the secular trends in cervical cancer mortality in China and the United States and analyze the independent effects of chronological age, time period and birth cohort using age-period-cohort (APC) analysis. Methods: We performed an age-period-cohort analysis using the intrinsic estimator method to estimate the independent effects of age, time period, and birth cohort on cervical cancer mortality. We collected mortality data for China and the United States from the WHO Mortality Database and China Health Statistical Yearbook database. Results: We examined the general trends in cervical mortality rates in China and the United States during the periods 1988-2012 and 1953-2012, respectively. The age-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs) for cervical cancer in urban China, rural China and the U.S. showed a general decreasing trend during the observation period, except for urban China, which experienced a significant increase beginning in 2002. The mortality rates for cervical cancer in the three areas showed a general increasing trend with age, regardless of the period effect. Period effects declined steadily in both rural China (from 0.19 to −0.26) and the U.S. (from −0.20 to −0.43); however, a slight increasing trend was identified (from −0.25 to 0.33) in urban China, which indicated that the risk of mortality increased with time. Cohort effects peaked in the cohort born in 1911-1915 in both rural China and urban China, declined consistently in the cohort born before 1950, and then decreased again in the cohort born after 1976-1980. The cohort effect in the U.S. peaked in the birth cohort born in 1876-1880, then leveled off and slightly decreased in younger generations. Conclusions: Our study showed that in general, cervical cancer mortality rates increased with age and decreased with birth cohort in the U.S., while the risk of mortality was highest in the cohort born during 1946-1975 in urban China. Additionally, the risk of mortality consistently increased with age in women younger than 64 years old in urban and rural China and began to decline in older groups. Although the age and cohort effects were relatively strong, the period effect may be the key factor affecting cervical cancer mortality trends, mainly reflecting the immediate effects of effective treatment and the implementation of screening.

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Time trends and age-period-cohort analyses on incidence rates of thyroid cancer in Shanghai and Hong Kong

Cited by 45 publications

References 37 publications

Cancer statistics in China, 2015

Cancer statistics in China, 2015

A panel of four genes accurately differentiates benign from malignant thyroid nodules

Comparison of Secular Trends in Cervical Cancer Mortality in China and the United States: An Age-Period-Cohort Analysis

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