Through Civil War, Food Crisis and Drought: Trends in Fertility and Nuptiality in Post-Soviet Tajikistan

Abstract

This article has two objectives. First, it aims to complement and extend existing research on post-socialist demographic change, which has thus far tended to focus on Central and Eastern Europe. It does this by describing the nature of postSoviet trends in nuptiality and fertility in Tajikistan, the republic with the highest rate of population growth during the Soviet period. It finds evidence for a decrease in period fertility after independence: initially, through a decline at higher orders; then, through a significant decrease in the rate of first births, associated with a dramatic decrease in the rate of first union formation since the mid-1990s. Second, it aims to contribute to the demography of conflict and of food crisis. Most clearly, it finds strong evidence for a decrease in nuptiality and fertility associated with the 1995 food crisis.Keywords Post-Soviet Á Central Asia Á Tajikistan Á Fertility Á Union formation Á Civil war Á Food crisis Résumé Cet article a deux objectifs. Premièrement, il contribue à enrichir et élargir les recherches relatives aux changements démographiques observés au cours de la période post-socialiste, focalisées jusqu'à présent sur l'Europe Centrale et Orientale, en décrivant les caractéristiques des évolutions post-soviétiques de la nuptialité et de la fécondité au Tadjikistan, République ayant eu le taux de croissance de la population le plus élevé au cours de la période soviétique. Après l'indépendance, le déclin de la fécondité transversale a d'abord débuté par une baisse des naissances de rangs élevés, puis a continué avec une baisse du taux des naissances de premier rang associée à une chute dramatique du taux de formation de la première union depuis le

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The Effects of Conflict on Fertility: Evidence from the Genocide in Rwanda

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