Third birth intention of the childbearing-age population in mainland China and sociodemographic differences: a cross-sectional survey

Abstract

Background Global fertility declines have become an inevitable trend, and many countries are adopting policies to drive fertility increases. Fertility intention plays an important role in predicting fertility behavior. The Chinese government has recently issued the ‘three-child’ policy, and there is still little research on the third birth intention of the childbearing-age population. Therefore, the aim of this study is to investigate the prevalence and related reasons of third birth intention in the childbearing-age population in mainland China, and analyze the sociodemographic differences. Method A cross-sectional survey was conducted in mainland China from June to July 2021. A total of 15,332 childbearing-age participants responded and completed the Fertility Intention Questionnaire online through the Wenjuanxing Platform. Data were explored and analyzed by SPSS (version 22.0) software. Descriptive statistics were used to describe the current situation and reasons of third birth intention. Binary logistic regression analysis was applied to assess the influencing factors in the sociodemographic level. Results The mean age of the participants was 32.9 ± 5.94 years. Only 12.2% of participants reported having third birth intention. The subjective norm of having both son and daughter (22.0%) and busy at work (29.2%) accounted for the largest proportion in the reasons of acceptance and rejection, respectively. Age has negative impact on third birth intention (OR = 0.960). Men were 2.209 times more likely to have three children than women (P < 0.001). With the improvement of education and family monthly income, the birth intention shows a downward trend. Compared with Han nationalities, first marriage and city residents, the ethnic minorities, remarriage and rural residents have stronger birth intention (all P < 0.05). And individuals with two existing children are inclined to have the third child (OR = 1.839). Conclusion The third birth intention in the childbearing-age population in China is still low after the announcement of the three-child policy. It is necessary to create a favorable fertility context for childbearing-age group with high level of third birth intention, like younger, male, minority, remarriage, with lower education and family monthly income, living in rural and two existing children. Furthermore, removing barriers for those unintended is also prominent to ensure the impetus of policy.

Fertility Intention and Related Factors for Having a Second or Third Child Among Childbearing Couples in Shanghai, China

“…This finding is lower than that of Jue Liu who found the second-child intent rate was 39.4% in central and eastern China after the universal two-child policy ( 15 ). Likewise, the third-child intention rate in our survey was also lower than the data obtained nationwide by another scholar in 2021 which was 12.2% ( 14 ). Unlike previous studies ( 10 ), here, we conducted a cross-sectional survey among couples with one child for second-child intention and couples with two children for third-child intention, controls for confounding factors and provides more detail and therefore accuracy ( 19 , 20 ).…”

“…Fertility intention is regarded to predict fertility behavior and it is affected by government policy as well as individual, social, economic, and cultural factors ( 12 , 13 ). In China, previous studies have shown that the prevalence of the fertility intention was 39.4% for a second child in 2017, and 12.2% for a third child in 2021 among the general population ( 14 , 15 ). According to this year's National Bureau of Statistics, 43% of the births in 2021 were second births.…”

Fertility intentions among young people in the era of China’s three–child policy: a national survey of university students

“…An alarming finding of this study is that low fertility intentions were reported by our study participants across all the regions in China. A recently published study conducted among the public of child-bearing-age between 31 to 40 years in China reported 12.2% had third birth intention [18]. Further, the 2017 National Fertility Survey reported only 2.2% do not plan to have any children [6].…”

Fertility Intention Among Chinese Reproductive Couples During the COVID-19 Outbreak: A Cross-Sectional Study

“…The aging process together with decreased fertility rate will result in a shrinking workforce and growing health expenditure, which hampers economic and social development ( 12 , 13 ). A three-child policy has just been released on May 31, 2021, in China, however, the third birth intention of the childbearing-age population in China is still low after the announcement ( 14 ). Reversing declined fertility is still a primary concern around the world.…”