Think Twice before Jumping on the Bandwagon: Clarifying Concepts in Research on the Bandwagon Effect

Abstract

The potential influence of perceived popularity of political parties or candidates on individual vote choice is most commonly studied in terms of a ‘bandwagon effect’. However, there is confusion over exactly what the bandwagon effect is. In this article, I seek to remedy this confusion by providing a clear definition and typology of bandwagon effects, grounded in a review which reappraises existing scholarship. I argue that the bandwagon effect is a distinct social phenomenon involving an individual-level change in vote choice or turnout decision towards a more or increasingly popular candidate or party, motivated initially by this popularity. I then break this down employing a typology which draws on distinctions made in the literature between static and dynamic, and conversion and mobilisation effects. This conception of the bandwagon effect leaves it open to the operation of a variety of possible underlying processes. Scholars should apply such clear concepts as are proposed here in bandwagon research, to situate and clarify their contributions theoretically and offer a more nuanced understanding of whether, how and why bandwagon effects occur across different political contexts.

Total Recall? Examining the Accuracy of Poll Recall during an Election Campaign

“…Research in the area dates back to the 1990s or earlier, when published polls were far less widespread than today (Brettschneider, 2008). This is somewhat surprising since recall should be a central antecedent for behavioral and attitudinal poll effects -both subject to extensive empirical investigation (Barnfield, 2019;Moy & Rinke, 2012) and normative debate (Donsbach, 2001). Studies in poll effects rely on the (often implicit) assumption that people base their political attitudes and behavior on the perceived public support for political parties or candidates and that polls provide an important cue for their judgments (Mutz, 1997).…”

PollBasePro: Daily Estimates of Aggregate Voting Intention in Britain from 1955 to the Present Day

“…But our estimates might stand to improve the quality of polling reporting too. The stories that we tell ourselves to explain the polls often come to shape our politics (Barnfield 2020). And many of these stories emerge from the simple averages that many commentators use to make sense of the polls.…”

The Winner-Loser Spiral in Political News Coverage: Investigating the Impact of Poll Coverage on Subsequent Party Coverage

“…This is in line with what several scholars have pointed out, that first-past-the-post systems and proportional systems creates different opportunities for journalist to frame political candidates and parties as winners and losers. While the concept of winner is rather clear cut in majoritarian systems, that is whoever has the most support, it is much more muddled in multi-party systems (Barnfield, 2019;Van der Meer et al, 2016). Finally, the importance of party system is moreover strengthened when considering work that shows that there is more game-framed news in countries with fewer parties in parliament (Aalberg et al, 2017).…”