Total Recall? Examining the Accuracy of Poll Recall during an Election Campaign

Abstract

Despite a considerable interest in the effects of polls published during election campaigns, we know little about how well people internalize and remember their results. This paper studies how accurately citizens recall poll results and factors potentially influencing this accuracy. Theoretically, we draw on research into the perception of polls and poll effects as well as into media effects on political knowledge in general. Empirically, we investigate recall accuracy based on a representative telephone survey conducted two weeks prior to the 2013 German national election. Respondents demonstrated reasonable accuracy in remembering poll results, when they had been exposed to them, and this did not tend to improve drastically with more exposure. Only in the case of recalling the relative poll ranks as opposed to vote shares was more exposure associated with better recall. Politically knowledgeable individuals were consistently better at recalling the polls, but greater interest in the election did not improve recall beyond this.Polls have become an integral part of election coverage over recent decades. This trend has been observed in various democracies, including the USA (

Digital dilemma: technology in the vote counting process for general elections and local head elections in Indonesia

“…The biggest challenge in conducting elections in the contemporary context has shifted from fundamental technological implementation concerns to an urgent requirement for precise election results, serving as a concrete embodiment of democratic principles (Zerback et al, 2021). Within this framework, the launched electoral system takes on critical importance, necessitating a unified approach where various election elements are integrally connected and indistinguishable (Duile, 2021).…”