Thermal trouble in the tropics

Perez, Timothy M.; Stroud, James T.; Feeley, Kenneth J.

doi:10.1126/science.aaf3343

Cited by 99 publications

(89 citation statements)

References 11 publications

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“…Controlled experiments (Zotz et al, ) confirm that the negative impacts of minor warming are not merely an artefact of underestimating fundamental niches in the absence of hotter current conditions (Feeley & Silman, ), but instead reflect real physiological limits and a lack of plasticity. Others have invoked greater vulnerability of tropical and subtropical vegetation because of dominance by thermal specialists (Perez, Stroud, & Feeley, ), though we found inconclusive support in this study because both generalists and specialists occurred at warmer temperatures. Aside from direct physiological impacts, atmospheric warming may also have indirect effects on lowland lichen communities due to rising sea levels (Lendemer & Allen, ) or shifts in moisture regimes (Follmann, ).…”

Section: Discussioncontrasting

confidence: 94%

Climatic niche limits and community‐level vulnerability of obligate symbioses

Smith

Jovan

McCune

2019

Journal of Biogeography

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Aim Communities with many species at their climatic niche limits may be vulnerable to species losses, suggesting that niche‐based measures can inform vulnerability assessments. We aimed to quantify spatial variation in community‐level vulnerability indices based on niche limits, not just central tendencies, to predict where climate changes will produce rapid, pronounced shifts in ecological communities. Location North America. Taxon Epiphytic lichenized fungi. Methods We integrated broad‐extent herbarium data (46,343 North American sites, for estimation of realized niches) with systematic, whole‐community macrolichen surveys from the U.S. Forest Inventory and Analysis inventory (6,474 U.S. sites, for standardized vulnerability estimation). We introduce three niche‐based vulnerability indices describing (a) percentage of vulnerable species occurring at their upper climatic limits, (b) community‐mean percentile, and (c) deviation of local conditions from community‐mean upper limits. We also performed sensitivity analyses and evaluated vulnerability in future climate change scenarios. Results Sensitivity of indices to uncertainty in climate variables was minor. Present‐day vulnerability was greatest in north‐central California, in the Southwest along the western Colorado Plateau, and on the Southeastern coastal plain—locations where climatically‐induced compositional changes will become most evident. Under future warming scenarios (+0.5 to + 3.6°C increases), the percentage of U.S. epiphytic macrolichen communities exceeding critical values grew from about 2%–20%. Main conclusions In all scenarios the most vulnerable communities were concentrated in low‐elevation and southerly locations, suggesting that many ostensibly “warm‐adapted” communities may be close to exceeding their climatic limits. Findings indicate that warming and moisture changes will modify community compositions through the local loss of intolerant species pushed beyond their niche limits. Assessing vulnerability of bioindicators such as lichens will help prioritize locations where the greatest climate‐induced changes in species distributions and diversity will occur.

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Section: Discussioncontrasting

confidence: 94%

Climatic niche limits and community‐level vulnerability of obligate symbioses

Smith

Jovan

McCune

2019

Journal of Biogeography

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“…, Perez et al. ). The production of flowers and fruits is highly susceptible to changes in both weather and climate (Van Schaik et al.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 98%

Effects of hurricanes and climate oscillations on annual variation in reproduction in wet forest, Puerto Rico

Zimmerman

Hogan

Nytch

et al. 2017

Ecology

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Interannual changes in global climate and weather disturbances may influence reproduction in tropical forests. Phenomena such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are known to produce interannual variation in reproduction, as do severe storms such as hurricanes. Using stationary trap-based phenology data collected fortnightly from 1993 to 2014 from a hurricane-affected (1989 Hugo, 1998 Georges) subtropical wet forest in northeastern Puerto Rico, we conducted a time series analysis of flowering and seed production. We addressed (1) the degree to which interannual variation in flower and seed production was influenced by global climate drivers and time since hurricane disturbance, and (2) how long-term trends in reproduction varied with plant lifeform. The seasonally de-trended number of species in flower fluctuated over time while the number of species producing seed exhibited a declining trend, one that was particularly evident during the second half of the study period. Lagged El Niño indices and time series hurricane disturbance jointly influenced the trends in numbers of flowering and fruiting species, suggesting complex global influences on tropical forest reproduction with variable periodicities. Lag times affecting flowering tended to be longer than those affecting fruiting. Long-term patterns of reproduction in individual lifeforms paralleled the community-wide patterns, with most groups of lifeform exhibiting a long-term decline in seed but not flower production. Exceptions were found for hemiepiphytes, small trees, and lianas whose seed reproduction increased and then declined over time. There was no long-term increase in flower production as reported in other Neotropical sites.

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“…Recent work suggests that under climate change (1) increasing seasonal temperature variability due to higher frequency of extreme events and (2) decreasing daily fluctuation in temperature due to differences in warming rates between day and night temperatures will have a greater impact on species with narrow thermal tolerances [46] such as the leatherback turtle. Adult leatherback turtles tolerate wide ranges of temperatures in the ocean [47], but the developing eggs may not adapt nor acclimate well to wide fluctuations in temperature even seasonally, due to the deep nest stability impacts on the evolution of these mechanisms responding to temperature.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Are thermal barriers "higher" in deep sea turtle nests?

Tomillo

Fonseca²,

Paladino

et al. 2017

PLoS ONE

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Thermal tolerances are affected by the range of temperatures that species encounter in their habitat. Daniel Janzen hypothesized in his “Why mountain passes are higher in the tropics” that temperature gradients were effective barriers to animal movements where climatic uniformity was high. Sea turtles bury their eggs providing some thermal stability that varies with depth. We assessed the relationship between thermal uniformity and thermal tolerance in nests of three species of sea turtles. We considered that barriers were “high” when small thermal changes had comparatively large effects and “low” when the effects were small. Mean temperature was lower and fluctuated less in species that dig deeper nests. Thermal barriers were comparatively “higher” in leatherback turtle (Dermochelys coriacea) nests, which were the deepest, as embryo mortality increased at lower “high” temperatures than in olive ridley (Lepidochelys olivacea) and green turtle (Chelonia mydas) nests. Sea turtles have temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD) and embryo mortality increased as temperature approached the upper end of the transitional range of temperatures (TRT) that produces both sexes (temperature producing 100% female offspring) in leatherback and olive ridley turtles. As thermal barriers are “higher” in some species than in others, the effects of climate warming on embryo mortality is likely to vary among sea turtles. Population resilience to climate warming may also depend on the balance between temperatures that produce female offspring and those that reduce embryo survival.

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Thermal trouble in the tropics

Cited by 99 publications

References 11 publications

Climatic niche limits and community‐level vulnerability of obligate symbioses

Climatic niche limits and community‐level vulnerability of obligate symbioses

Effects of hurricanes and climate oscillations on annual variation in reproduction in wet forest, Puerto Rico

Are thermal barriers "higher" in deep sea turtle nests?

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