Thermal Sensitivity of Aedes aegypti From Australia: Empirical Data and Prediction of Effects on Distribution

Richardson, Kelly; Hoffmann, Ary A.; Johnson, Petrina H.; Ritchie, Scott A.; Kearney, Michael R.

doi:10.1603/me10204

Cited by 40 publications

(67 citation statements)

References 27 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…We determined threshold values for Aedes aegypti based on larval survival rates at various field sites in Australia for our dengue analysis; Ae. aegypti is the only dengue vector in Australia and thrives in urban areas31. Minimum, maximum, and optimal condition thresholds were 16 C, 40 C, and 25 C to 37 C, respectively, for dengue and 9.7 C, 37.5 C, and 17.5 C to 27 C, respectively, for BFV and RRV323334 (Figure S1).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A comparative analysis of three vector-borne diseases across Australia using seasonal and meteorological models

Stratton

Ehrlich

Mor

et al. 2017

Sci Rep

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Ross River virus (RRV), Barmah Forest virus (BFV), and dengue are three common mosquito-borne diseases in Australia that display notable seasonal patterns. Although all three diseases have been modeled on localized scales, no previous study has used harmonic models to compare seasonality of mosquito-borne diseases on a continent-wide scale. We fit Poisson harmonic regression models to surveillance data on RRV, BFV, and dengue (from 1993, 1995 and 1991, respectively, through 2015) incorporating seasonal, trend, and climate (temperature and rainfall) parameters. The models captured an average of 50–65% variability of the data. Disease incidence for all three diseases generally peaked in January or February, but peak timing was most variable for dengue. The most significant predictor parameters were trend and inter-annual periodicity for BFV, intra-annual periodicity for RRV, and trend for dengue. We found that a Temperature Suitability Index (TSI), designed to reclassify climate data relative to optimal conditions for vector establishment, could be applied to this context. Finally, we extrapolated our models to estimate the impact of a false-positive BFV epidemic in 2013. Creating these models and comparing variations in periodicities may provide insight into historical outbreaks as well as future patterns of mosquito-borne diseases.

show abstract

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A comparative analysis of three vector-borne diseases across Australia using seasonal and meteorological models

Stratton

Ehrlich

Mor

et al. 2017

Sci Rep

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…aegypti, particularly during rainy parts of the year (primarily June to October in our study area) when water-filled containers are most abundant. [9][10][11][12]27,28 Our temporal sampling scheme within the rainy season, with lower-elevation communities sampled before higher-elevation communities, was designed to minimize the potential confounding effect of increasing mosquito numbers over time when comparing presence and abundance of Ae. aegypti among communities.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…aegypti is considered to, in part, be limited by cold temperatures: the low-latitude areas equatorward of the average 10 C winter isotherms in the northern and southern hemispheres approximate the climatic boundary for establishment of the mosquito. [8][9][10][11][12][13] Eggs of Ae. aegypti can be transported over long distances in artificial containers through human activities, including to areas outside the established range, but the innate climate tolerance precludes establishment in colder areas at middle and high latitudes and at high elevations at lower latitudes.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Dengue Virus Mosquito Vector Aedes aegypti at High Elevation in México

Lozano-Fuentes¹,

Hayden²,

Welsh-Rodriguez³

et al. 2012

The American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene

112

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract. México has cities (e.g., México City and Puebla City) located at elevations 2,000 m and above the elevation ceiling below which local climates allow the dengue virus mosquito vector Aedes aegypti to proliferate. Climate warming could raise this ceiling and place high-elevation cities at risk for dengue virus transmission. To assess the elevation ceiling for Ae. aegypti and determine the potential for using weather/climate parameters to predict mosquito abundance, we surveyed 12 communities along an elevation/climate gradient from Veracruz City (sea level) to Puebla City (~2,100 m). Ae. aegypti was commonly encountered up to 1,700 m and present but rare from 1,700 to 2,130 m. This finding extends the known elevation range in Mé xico by 300 m. Mosquito abundance was correlated with weather parameters, including temperature indices. Potential larval development sites were abundant in Puebla City and other high-elevation communities, suggesting that Ae. aegypti could proliferate should the climate become warmer.

show abstract

“…Previous studies have shown that the temperature optimum for Ae. aegypti larval and pupal development, with short development times and high survival rates, is in the range of 24°–34°C (Bar-Zeev 1958; Rueda et al 1990; Tun-Lin et al 2000; Kamimura et al 2002; Mohammed and Chadee 2011; Padmanabha et al 2011b; Richardson et al 2011; Farjana et al 2012; Eisen et al 2014). We found that model-projected water temperatures from May to September 2011 in a representative container (gray, medium-sized bucket located in half shade) consistently exceeded 24°C in Veracruz City and commonly exceeded 24°C in Rio Blanco but very rarely did so in Puebla City (Figure 11).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Successful larval development of Ae. aegypti can be impeded by water temperatures that are too low for development to occur (8°–12°C) or high enough to cause physical harm, through heat stress, to the larvae (36°–44°C) (Bar-Zeev 1958; Smith et al 1988; Tun-Lin et al 2000; Kamimura et al 2002; Chang et al 2007; Richardson et al 2011; Muturi et al 2012). In the field, Hemme et al (2009) found that Ae.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

WHATCH’EM: A Weather-Driven Energy Balance Model for Determining Water Height and Temperature in Container Habitats for Aedes aegypti

et al. 2016

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The mosquito virus vector Aedes (Ae.) aegypti exploits a wide range of containers as sites for egg laying and development of the immature life stages, yet the approaches for modeling meteorologically sensitive container water dynamics have been limited. This study introduces the Water Height and Temperature in Container Habitats Energy Model (WHATCH’EM), a state-of-the-science, physically based energy balance model of water height and temperature in containers that may serve as development sites for mosquitoes. The authors employ WHATCH’EM to model container water dynamics in three cities along a climatic gradient in México ranging from sea level, where Ae. aegypti is highly abundant, to ~2100 m, where Ae. aegypti is rarely found. When compared with measurements from a 1-month field experiment in two of these cities during summer 2013, WHATCH’EM realistically simulates the daily mean and range of water temperature for a variety of containers. To examine container dynamics for an entire season, WHATCH’EM is also driven with field-derived meteorological data from May to September 2011 and evaluated for three commonly encountered container types. WHATCH’EM simulates the highly nonlinear manner in which air temperature, humidity, rainfall, clouds, and container characteristics (shape, size, and color) determine water temperature and height. Sunlight exposure, modulated by clouds and shading from nearby objects, plays a first-order role. In general, simulated water temperatures are higher for containers that are larger, darker, and receive more sunlight. WHATCH’EM simulations will be helpful in understanding the limiting meteorological and container-related factors for proliferation of Ae. aegypti and may be useful for informing weather-driven early warning systems for viruses transmitted by Ae. aegypti.

show abstract

Thermal Sensitivity of Aedes aegypti From Australia: Empirical Data and Prediction of Effects on Distribution

Cited by 40 publications

References 27 publications

A comparative analysis of three vector-borne diseases across Australia using seasonal and meteorological models

A comparative analysis of three vector-borne diseases across Australia using seasonal and meteorological models

The Dengue Virus Mosquito Vector Aedes aegypti at High Elevation in México

WHATCH’EM: A Weather-Driven Energy Balance Model for Determining Water Height and Temperature in Container Habitats for Aedes aegypti

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About