A comparative analysis of three vector-borne diseases across Australia using seasonal and meteorological models

Abstract

Ross River virus (RRV), Barmah Forest virus (BFV), and dengue are three common mosquito-borne diseases in Australia that display notable seasonal patterns. Although all three diseases have been modeled on localized scales, no previous study has used harmonic models to compare seasonality of mosquito-borne diseases on a continent-wide scale. We fit Poisson harmonic regression models to surveillance data on RRV, BFV, and dengue (from 1993, 1995 and 1991, respectively, through 2015) incorporating seasonal, trend, and climate (temperature and rainfall) parameters. The models captured an average of 50–65% variability of the data. Disease incidence for all three diseases generally peaked in January or February, but peak timing was most variable for dengue. The most significant predictor parameters were trend and inter-annual periodicity for BFV, intra-annual periodicity for RRV, and trend for dengue. We found that a Temperature Suitability Index (TSI), designed to reclassify climate data relative to optimal conditions for vector establishment, could be applied to this context. Finally, we extrapolated our models to estimate the impact of a false-positive BFV epidemic in 2013. Creating these models and comparing variations in periodicities may provide insight into historical outbreaks as well as future patterns of mosquito-borne diseases.

An analecta of visualizations for foodborne illness trends and seasonality

“…Measures of uncertainty enable formal testing and comparisons across diseases in the same location or locations for the same disease. In our previous works, we have demonstrated the broad utility of the δ-method and applications of peak timing and amplitude estimation in the context of epidemiological studies 6,29,[56][57][58][59][60][61][62] .…”

“…Future applications would involve the development of an interactive web-based platform allowing users to select the outcome, timeframe, and location of interest for educational training and research purposes. For example, public health researchers and practitioners could use this tool to generate insights related to long-term trends, changes in disease dynamics, or changes in populations at risk 62 . Information on when and where outbreaks are most common enable producers, distributors, and retailers to improve food safety practices to prevent these outbreaks.…”

Ecological and life history traits are associated with Ross River virus infection among sylvatic mammals in Australia

“…Fourth, while the inferences made here with respect to RRV host traits are ecologically relevant, if the ultimate goal is a more complete description of zoonotic RRV epidemiology then this will require the landscape analysis of these species, their mosquito vectors, and the coincident human cases in real time as a broad application of virology-based RRV surveillance in rural, urban, and peri-urban space. Valuable initial efforts have been made to define the landscape epidemiology of RRV, but only at coarse spatial[4, 54] and temporal scale[55, 56], and based on limited surveillance data.…”

Climate change: a brief overview of the science and health impacts for Australia

“…Many vector‐borne diseases are climate sensitive, as mosquito densities relate to rainfall and temperature. In Australia, Ross River virus, Barmah Forest virus and dengue fever are three of the most common and clinically important vector‐borne diseases, 51 yet the relationship between disease outbreaks and climate change is less clear. For example, rainfall was the weakest predictor of vector‐borne disease burden in a recent Australian study that explored climate variables on Ross River virus, Barmah Forest virus and dengue transmission rates, as the homophilic vector breeding cycle responds also to human intervention such as travel, habitation patterns, water containers 51 and prevention campaigns.…”

“…Locally acquired dengue transmission only occurs in urban areas of north Queensland from Townsville to the Torres Strait, where the vector ( Aedes aegypti ) is present 52 . Australia's increasing incidence of dengue fever is thought to result primarily from the long term growth in the travel sector, notably to South East Asian locations where dengue is endemic 51 . With global increases in vectorial capacity since the late 1970s of A. aegypti and A. albopictus , 48 endemicity of dengue fever in northern Queensland is regarded as a very real possibility 52 .…”