There is still time to reconcile forest management with climate-driven declines in habitat suitability for boreal caribou

Leblond, Mathieu; Boulanger, Yan; Puigdevall, Jesus Pascual; St‐Laurent, Martin‐Hugues

doi:10.1016/j.gecco.2022.e02294

Cited by 10 publications

(12 citation statements)

References 73 publications

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“…Of particular importance, increased disturbance rates could hasten the conversion of forest cover types and the strong decline in old-growth age classes (Bergeron et al 2017), with detrimental impacts on caribou and other specialist species associated with these forest types (Tremblay et al 2018, Barber et al 2018, Cadieux et al 2020, Nenzen et al 2020, Micheletti et al 2021. Our analyses showed that ceasing harvest (Figure 5vi, "Conservation") could help mitigate alterations in boreal caribou habitat for the entire RIA study area (Leblond et al 2022). Halting harvest activities in areas where habitat suitability is currently high could help maintain high quality habitat even under the most intense climate change scenarios as opposed to business-as-usual harvest (Figure 5vi, "BaU").…”

Section: Using Adaptation Strategies To Help Biodiversity Conservatio...mentioning

confidence: 70%

“…In some projects, the study area covered most of the commercial forest study area ) whereas others focused on smaller regions projected to experience specific climate-induced vulnerabilities (e.g., Splawinski et al 2019a, c, Cyr et al 2021, Moreau et al 2022. (2021), Leblond et al (2022). Also corresponds to the Quebec's managed forest as well as the intensive protection zone for fire suppression; Region b: Cyr et al (2021); Region c: FEC (2021); Region d: Landry et al (2021); Regions e1 and e2: Moreau et al (2022), Labadie et al (in prep.…”

Section: Area Covered By the Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Furthermore, documenting the overall risks to important aspects of forest ecosystems and the forestry sector will be necessary in this endeavor (Gauthier et al 2014). For example, although developing the road network helps lower climate-induced regeneration failures by providing easier access for post-disturbance plantation, its negative impacts on other valued components of the ecosystem, most notably caribou (e.g., Leblond et al 2013Leblond et al , 2014Leblond et al , 2022, have to be considered. The development of solutions that are sustainable, socially acceptable, and respectful of regulations and agreements in place will require compromise.…”

Section: Adapting Forest Management To Sustain Indigenous Valuesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In Quebec, the southern limit of boreal caribou's distribution has gradually retreated northward in the last century due to increased anthropogenic pressures, with southern remnant populations currently hovering at the brink of extinction(D'Orangeville et al 2022; Morineau et al in prep). Climate change will likely pose an additional threat to the long-term persistence of boreal caribou throughout Canada (e.g.,Murray et al 2015;Barber et al 2018;Neilson et al 2022) and Québec(Leblond et al 2022;St-Laurent et al…”

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confidence: 99%

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A regional integrated assessment of the impacts of climate change and of the potential adaptation avenues for Quebec's forests

et al. 2023

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Regional analyses assessing the vulnerabilities of forest ecosystems and the forest sector to climate change are key to consider the heterogeneity of climate change impacts but also the fact that risks, opportunities and adaptation capacities might differ regionally. Here we provide the Regional Integrated Assessment of climate change on Quebec’s forests, a work that involved several research teams and that focused on climate change impacts on Quebec’s commercial forests and on potential adaptation solutions. Our work showed that climate change will alter several ecological processes within Quebec’s forests. These changes will result in important modifications in forest landscapes. Harvest will cumulate with climate change effects to further alter future forest landscapes which will also have consequences on wildlife habitat (including woodland caribou habitat), avian biodiversity, carbon budget and a variety of forest landscape values for Indigenous peoples. The adaptation of the forest sector, will be crucial to mitigate the impacts of climate change on forest ecosystem goods and services and improve their resilience. Moving forward, a broad range of adaptation measures, notably through reducing harvest levels, should be explored to help strike a balance among social, ecological and economic values. We conclude that without climate adaptation strong negative economical and ecological impacts will likely affect Quebec’s forests.

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Section: Using Adaptation Strategies To Help Biodiversity Conservatio...mentioning

confidence: 70%

Section: Area Covered By the Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Adapting Forest Management To Sustain Indigenous Valuesmentioning

confidence: 99%

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confidence: 99%

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A regional integrated assessment of the impacts of climate change and of the potential adaptation avenues for Quebec's forests

et al. 2023

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“…Calf recruitment declines with climate‐induced phenological and predatory changes in other caribou ecotypes (Mallory & Boyce, 2018; Post & Forchhammer, 2008; Vors & Boyce, 2009), with similar fecundity declines shown in other northern ungulates (e.g., Post et al, 1997). With climate change, the relative demographic influence of anthropogenic and wildfire drivers may change through important range‐wide indirect (e.g., habitat‐mediated) effects on boreal caribou (Leblond et al, 2022; Neilson et al, 2022).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate‐informed forecasts reveal dramatic local habitat shifts and population uncertainty for northern boreal caribou

Stewart

Micheletti

Cumming

et al. 2023

Ecological Applications

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Most research on boreal populations of woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) has been conducted in areas of high anthropogenic disturbance. However, a large portion of the species' range overlaps relatively pristine areas primarily affected by natural disturbances, such as wildfire. Climate-driven habitat change is a key concern for the conservation of boreal-dependent species, where management decisions have yet to consider knowledge from multiple ecological domains integrated into a cohesive and spatially explicit forecast of species-specific habitat and demography. We used a novel ecological forecasting framework to provide climate-sensitive projections of Frances E. C. Stewart and Tatiane Micheletti share first authorship.

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Incorporating mechanism into conservation actions in an age of multiple and emerging threats: The case of boreal caribou

et al. 2023

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Conservation strategies for imperiled species are frequently based on identifying and addressing the probable causes of population decline, an approach known as the declining population paradigm. Causes, however, are frequently linked to demographic outcomes by multiple mechanisms, and failing to target the primary mechanisms can reduce the effectiveness and efficiency of conservation actions. Increasingly, conservation strategies also need to consider emerging threats, such as climate change. Here, we use boreal caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou), a threatened ecotype of woodland caribou, as a case study to illustrate how landscape disturbance and climate change can each exert negative demographic effects on caribou through multiple and complex mechanisms. We

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There is still time to reconcile forest management with climate-driven declines in habitat suitability for boreal caribou

Cited by 10 publications

References 73 publications

A regional integrated assessment of the impacts of climate change and of the potential adaptation avenues for Quebec's forests

A regional integrated assessment of the impacts of climate change and of the potential adaptation avenues for Quebec's forests

Climate‐informed forecasts reveal dramatic local habitat shifts and population uncertainty for northern boreal caribou

Incorporating mechanism into conservation actions in an age of multiple and emerging threats: The case of boreal caribou

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